Why BJP and the PM need a Plan B

At the outset let's be sure about one thing.  Nothing PM Modi and his Govt. have done in 11 months suggest a sub par performance.

But there's a right way to do things, a wrong way and an effective way.  BJP is missing out on the politically effective way to govern.

What follows in this post is an attempt to explain where things are going wrong and how to correct them and the consequences of continuing with the current strategy.

Consider the following scenario:

PM Modi wins the LAB battle and launches a series of infrastructure projects across Power, water and transportation sectors.  These projects are then attacked at local levels with stay orders issued by local judiciary.  Resulting delays cause cost overruns and more importantly a wishy-washy implementation record.

May 2018:  A unifying opposition gangs up against the BJP and questions BJP's track record.  Priyanka enters the arena as either Congress' great white hope or as the second in command to her brother.

Priyanka and Congress offer to concede PM's post to a third front candidate to defeat 'communal' BJP.  This announcement energizes the opposition and unites minority vote behind a unified Congress party.

2019 results in a hung parliment.  BJP horse trades to compile a coalition at the Center.

Resentful partners like the Sena and Akalis demand their pound of flesh.  PM Modi has to work with one hand tied behind his back.

Govt. limps along and in 2024 (or before) ushers in a Priyanka led UPA 3.

To avoid this scenario, PM Modi's linear approach to governance needs to continue.  But with an important alteration. Introduce a Plan B.

Purely anecdotal evidence suggests a growing resentment towards the BJP stemming primarily from rising prices.  But most inflation statistics suggest a significant drop in inflation rate under NDA.  So what explains the simmering anger.

Ashok (a rickshaw driver I spoke to) and his wife (a maid) earn Rs. 15-20,000 per month.

Under UPA they struggled to make ends meet with inflation hovering around 9%.  Though the inflation rate has dropped it is still at 5%.

With no real opportunity to increase their respective incomes, the Ashok household continues to reel under effects of UPA's criminal policies.

Moreover, with global oil prices crashing, Ashok expects a break across the board.  But where the govt. has reduced diesel and gas prices, they have raised fares on local transportation.

The cummalative impact of these balancing acts is a largely dissatisfied voter base.

BJP must realize that they are not entirely pitted against Sonia's UPA.  They are instead being measured against their performance in Gujarat under then CM Modi and the expectations they engendered during the election campaign for LS 2014.

PM Modi has adopted his tried and test strategies from Gujarat.  But Gujarat was more or less a 'controlled' environment.  Delhi on the other hand is a quagmire of conflicting and competing (entrenched) interest groups.

PM Modi is up against the following constraints:

1.  Compressed Time lines
- BJP needs to deliver by Dec 2017 so as to allow effects of delivered services to be imbibed by voters in the run up to the 2019 elections

2. Compromised leaders within BJP
-  These individuals will prevent PM Modi from going after Sonia, so as to avoid a backlash that could paralyze governance

3. A Uniting Opposition
-  Unification of the Janta parivar is only the first pointer of what is to come in the months/years ahead.  More parties are likely to unite against the Modi Juggernaut

4. Priyanka
-  Despite Pappu's recent flourish, his natural flaws are likely to reemerge.  Few more defeats over the next 2-3 years will make Priyanka the presumptive favorite to take over the Congress.

5.  Judiciary and Media
-  PM Modi threatens the cosy relationship that has existed between various players within Sonia's carefully cultivated ecosystem.  PM Modi can expect judicial challenges to his ambitious development plans.  With media turning these challenges into World War 3 for the Modi Govt.



PLAN B:

Consider the following news story:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Only-12-potential-of-Maharashtras-70000-small-dams-used/articleshow/46951498.cms

Only 12% of Maharashtra's 70K small dams are being used, largely due to government apathy and lack of proper funding.

These small dams have been approved with all the necessary clearances granted by previous UPA governments.

It is likely this scenario is not restricted to Maharashtra alone.  Several other states may be struggling with unfinished and underutilized irrigation projects.

BJP govts at the center and state levels need to simultaneously work toward completing these projects.

The following advantages ensue:

1. Projects can be implemented by 2018
- As individual projects are completed, political mileage will accrue well ahead of the Dec 2017 timeline

2. Legal challenges
- With projects cleared and approved by previous regimes, political and legal challenges should be limited and manageable.  This includes land acquisition.

3. Contrast between BJP and non-BJP govts.
-  By implementing projects proposed or started by previous govts, BJP can demonstrate how other parties promise but only BJP delivers.  Plan B allows an apples-to-apples comparison across the political spectrum

Without a Plan B, BJP risks going back to voters with a checkered track record and an energized opposition ready to topple BJP by all means necessary.

The End of Kejriwal - Why he may never recover

Writing political obituaries is fraught with the risk of being horribly wrong.  But contrary to AAP's media pollyannas, Kejriwal may have shot himself squarely between the eyes.  His political demise may be a forgone conclusion.

Here's why.

Politics abhors hypocrisy.  Nothing destroys a leader more than hypocrisy.

Perhaps, the best example of this maxim can be found in the sad demise of LKA as a PM candidate.  Right Wingers like yours truly, watched in perplexed horror as LKA first celebrated Jinnah as a secularist and then defended that same indefensible statement.  All in the hope of occupying an ABV vacated centrist political space.

This is not to suggest that a transition from left to right or vice versa is impossible.  In a country where party hopping is an accepted art form, this 'credibility' theory may induce an amused yawn.  But Kejriwal staked a very unique territory.  That of being India's only Mr. Clean.

Rajiv Gandhi fell victim to a similar dynamic.  He was India's first Mr. Clean.  His address at Congress' centennial promised a 'New' India, much the same way Kejriwal did.

But once the stench of corruption engulfed an embattled Rajiv, he couldnt recover.  The only thing that saved Congress from back-to-back electoral defeats was Rajiv's assassination smack in the middle of 1991's LS election campaign.

Kejriwal has committed just such a cardinal sin. He grabbed the moral high ground and has now disdainfully trampled it in a brazen public spectacle.

Some media pundits have argued that the electorate that helped catapult Kejriwal to CMship will not be the same that sustains his political career.  This is, to put it mildly, one the most amateurish and asinine arguments I have heard in a long time.

Kejriwal has sacrificed his greatest asset.  Credibility.

Who is going to believe him now, even if he concedes every demand made by the YoYa/Bhushan combo?  RTI, internal democracy, ....every action has now become tainted.  Everything he does will be seen as a sham.

When he starts attacking BJP or Congress, the accusations will ring hollow and may even boomerang.

Kejriwal has worked overtime to prove us Bhakts right.  He's a con artist who will sell his mother for political office.  He's now no different than a Laloo or Pawar or Mulayam or Sonia.

In the silence and dejected despondency of his followers, Kejriwal has acquired a permanent ball-and-chain, firmly wrapped around both ankles.

This is precisely what happened to VP Singh and Rajiv and LKA.  And they never recovered.

Kejriwal is young and may script a sequel.  But a second, generation-sized legion of AAPtards will be hard to find.

The general has massacred his own army.  Where and how will he find such a dedicated legion of selfless warriors.  The only ones he will now attract are the self-serving pimps and Hoes.  The same ones who attach themselves to every party apparatus to leech off of the spoils of power - party/country be damned.  And these pimps and hoes will need to be rewarded and rewarded handsomely.

Where will the funds come from?

"Hello 'Politics of Patronage' "
- http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/politics-of-patronage-vs-politics-of.html

Kejriwal recognizes this emerging dynamic and has stepped up his game.  By appointing 45 MLAs as 'political assistants' Kejriwal has initiated the 'politics of patronage' in his ranks.  This is a slippery slope.  Slowly but surely, families of these MLAs will receive special considerations in their 'small' business ventures.

And slowly but surely these small business ventures will blossom into large businesses.  That is when a single corruption scandal will wreck the last remnants of AAP as we know it.  And Kejriwal will be forced to remain a mute spectator.  For his Sisodias, Sanjays and Khetans will be collecting their cut.

Kejriwal has left in his wake a million shattered dreams and a generation of young men and women who will never recover from this treachery.  But their anguish has cursed Kejriwal's political future.   May be they can find closure in the knowledge that his political demise is inevitable.


p.s.

NaMo escaped a similar 'credibility' trap -  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/03/namo-must-run-unconventional-campaign.html  -  but he may be flirting with it given the significant political capital he has expended in Kashmir.

Convert Muslims to Christianity: In Support of a Militant Christian Fundamentalism

Post 9/11 as Americans and particularly fundamentalist Christian Americans rose in rage against Islam a strange phenomenon took shape.  Muslims across the western world were successful in countering anti-Islamic sentiments.  Their efforts were so successful that even genuine critics of Islam were muzzled into an eerie silence.

Any challenge to the accepted consensus of Islam being a religion of peace was countered with two effective arguments - "Islamophobia" and "Bigotry".  Irrespective of the medium, Muslim media warriors were successful in countering anti-Islamic rhetoric.

Despite heinous crimes committed by devout Muslims around the globe, muslims have been able to paint any challenge to the core doctrine of Islam as a bigoted, racist attack by white Christian Islamophobes.

But their success begs the question - how is it possible that Westerners have failed to counter these allegations.  After all, it is the Christian West which first created and mastered the art of media management.

The answer is simple.  There's truth in those allegations.  Christianity till mid 20th century was a mirror image of Islam.  The level of hatred spawned by these two desert faiths has led to the complete annihilation of entire races for 2000 years.  Mayas, Jews, Aboriginals of Australia, Native Americans of the Americas......Christianity can match Islam's blood lust - severed head for severed head, ethnic cleansing for ethnic cleansing.

Given its proximity to Arabia, India bore the brunt of Islam's degenerate quest for global dominance.  Nevertheless, India did get a taste of Christianity's competing endeavor to rid the world of heathens and pagans.  Portuguese Inquisition in India would rival almost any act perpetrated by ISIS in present day Arabia.  Certainly present day Christians would rise up against any ISIS like organization that stems from its ranks.  But the fact that such evil was nurtured and justified on the basis of core Christian beliefs renders present day Christians incapable of confronting Islam and its blood soaked history.

More importantly, though Christianity is on the decline in the West and has been stripped of its more controversial core tenets, it continues to harbor a critical mass of believers hell bent on ushering the kingdom of Christ.

As the democratic world struggles to confront an increasingly barbarous Islam, a key weapon is absent from its arsenal.

This is not to suggest that ISIS like barbarity should be brought upon innocent Muslims living in non-Muslim countries but the world needs an equally organized and resourced counter weight.

Islam and Christianity are fraternal twins.  A founding prophet who insisted on the one true God, at the expense of all other false deities.  And a founding crew of apostles who spread the message through all means - fair and foul.

Taqqiya was not invented by Islam, Christians developed it into a fine art long before Islam spread its tentacles beyond Arabia.

More importantly, Christianity alone has the deep, entrenched ecosystem to channel collective rage and frustration of its followers into actionable and quantifiable strategies.

Countering the rampaging armies of radical Islam will need a doctrine capable of battling this menace on multiple levels.  In the media, within democratic structures and if need be in the trenches of evil barbarity.

There are only two doctrines with the needed resources and global reach that fit the bill - Communism and Christianity.

Chinese communists have begun confronting Islam with their own savagery.  But their early successes may conceal a bitter weakness - Time and demographic change.

From a purely selfish standpoint, I do not want my future generations to live in an Islamic world.   Drained of freedom the human soul will die a painful death.  Islam promises just that.  A reverse countdown to the dark edges ending in certain death of the human race as we know it.

In all fairness, Hinduism has harbored its own evil streak.  But nothing it has done can compare to the multiple genocides perpetrated by the Abrahamic twins.  Moreover, Hinduism for all its tolerance is a deeply divided and 'self-divisive' religion.  As explained here -   http://centreright.in/2011/05/cast-away-the-caste/#.VO1II_nF-Rw

Baring a few exceptions (Sikhs, Marathas, Rajputs) Hindus have never successfully united to defeat rampaging armies of Islam.  This is not to suggest that Hindus lack valor or courage or intelligence or resources.  Guru Teg Bahadur, Maharana Rana Pratap, Sambhaji Maharaj are examples of individuals who sacrificed their all to protect Hindus from Islamic barbarism.

But individuals can only go so far.  PM Modi is cast in a similar mold.  A one man army confronting the same enemy with little or no help from his severely Hindu ummah.

Even the controversial 'Ghar Wapsi' program is doomed, given the deeply divided nature of Hindu society and a lack of socio-religious ecosystem which can nurture and sustain such initiatives. - http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/ghar-wapsi-wont-succeed-unless-hindus-change-2/

Christianity alone has the right combination of fanatical warriors, richly resourced supply lines and the ruthless strategic gene to defeat militant Islam.

Hindus must make their peace with Christians and find a common ground to unite against Islam.

For there is only one end game in this war- the mass conversion of Muslims out of Islam.

No other solution makes sense.  You cannot wish away 1.6 billion Muslims.  A global war on muslims will destroy the human race and set us back centuries.

With its zeal for proselytization which brings waves of missionaries from across the Christian world to remote (and often) dangerous corners of the world, Christianity can help engender the much needed reformation within Islam (as demanded by Ayan Hirsi Ali - http://m.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/why-islam-needs-a-reformation/story-e6frg6zo-1227272860152)

Islamic Reformation will not happen from within.  An external, credible and prolonged threat to its very existence is a necessary (if not sufficient) condition to trigger this world saving revolution.

And only Christianity can provide the necessary doctrinal and social refuge that allows Muslims to migrate from Moses (Jihadi) to Moses (Crusadi).

There's always the risk that a militant, fundamentalist Christianity would once again spawn an Adolf Hitler from within its revitalized womb.  But given the dim prospects facing us in an increasingly Islamized world, it is a risk worth taking.

No risk, No reward.

Land Acquisition Bill - Solution: Indian Railways

All through his stint as CM of Gujarat, NaMo resisted the temptation to go after political rivals via judicial or other non-political channels.

He preferred instead to ensure their political demise by vanquishing them in the arena of electoral politics.  

As several media honchos shifted anxiously in their chairs, many wondered if PM Modi would leverage state apparatus to strip them naked and turn Delhi into a giant Hammam.

But even through the campaign for 2014, candidate Modi made it a point to put these fears to rest.  "I will not waste my precious political capital on (a distracting) political vendetta" seemed to be his message of peace.

As the PM, he has kept his word.  While his core supporters are incensed at this 'hands-off' approach, expecting to see a political guillotine instead, the PM has wisely elected to focus his considerable talents on the task at hand; which is to extract India from the morass of political and economic mess.

But try as he may, his political adversaries won’t let him take the high road.  A successful PM means an end to the ‘Politics of Patronage’ as practiced and perfected by Congress and its regional clones.

Sonia and her regional socialist satraps know all too well what the Modi Model does to its political opponents.  Madhavsinh Solanki, Suresh Mehta, Kashiram Rana, Shankersinh Vaghela, Keshubhai Patel – none were targeted personally.  Despite their vicious campaign, NaMo chose to focus on his work so that the ‘Politics of Performance’ he spawned ensured their natural (albeit painful) political demise.

But in playing with the same template at the national level, PM Modi is leaving many a flank open for his opponents to attack and slow him down.

As explained in previous posts, Sonia is no fool.  Her scorched earth strategy circa 2013, ensured that many a trap door were left in place for a future non-Congress PM.

LAB is just such a trap door.  Even though the merits of the bill may be hard to challenge, the imagery around it is very easily manipulated. 

“A PM and his Industrialists friends stealing assests of the poor to usher in an India for the rich, by the rich, of the rich”

PM Modi has tried to counter this narrative by making himself the only real public face of his govt and its policies.  But Delhi isn’t Gujarat.  Every verbal spasm by even the most remotely associated ‘member’ of the Sangh parivar can and will be exaggerated into the government’s policy statement.

One can always argue that media was unable to stop CM Modi, what chances does it have of stopping PM Modi.

But there’s one vital difference that even the PM seems to have overlooked.  Gujarat was NaMo and NaMo was Gujarat. 

A harsh policy explained by an honest, clean, hardworking PM may be palatable to the masses that elected him, but the same policy peddled by ministers who till May 2014 were maneuvering for an “If not me, than none from the BJP” electoral outcome, cannot and will not be trusted by voters.

And therein lies the PM’s dilemma.  Delhi is not NaMo and NaMo is not Delhi. 

When he first took office I wrote these two pieces - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/pm-narendra-modi-must-run.html

And Part 2 - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/pm-narendra-modi-must-run_21.html

The basic message of those two posts was that PM Modi must run an unconventional government.  Instead, what we have witnessed in the first 9 months of this government is a typically conventional approach with a few nuances to clearly differentiate it from previous regimes.

The Swaach Bharat campaign is a wonderful example of unconventional governance.  The sad part is that it is an isolated example.

I’m not arguing that the work done by Shri Gadkari and Shri Piyush Goyal is a waste of time.  In fact they are doing exactly what needs to be done – the rapid scaling up of India’s transportation and power infrastructure.

The fault lies in the govt. thinking that the fruits of these efforts would reflect in electoral outcomes in 2019.

Right wing economics depends on market forces driving the economy, actively aided and supported by an efficient government.  These ideas have worked well the world over.  There’s no disputing them.  But India of 2015 is not the United States of 1950s.

Intellectuals who recognize the obvious superiority of right wing economics seldom vote, whereas (as explained here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html)

 voters struggling for survival have neither the time nor the patience to understand these proven economic paradigms.

These voters want two clear deliverables:

1.     Put the corrupt behind bars so that they stop looting our wealth

2.     Give us handouts so our daily struggles can be made more manageable

Growing uproar over the LAB is merely a symptom of a deeper malaise afflicting this government.  A malaise which is a direct outcome of a govt. ignoring the thought process of India’s regular and likely voters.

This govt being very early in its tenure and these shortcomings can be easily rectified.  But left unaddressed, it could turn 2019 into a fight for a hung parliament i.e. a defeat for PM Modi.

But ‘Make in India’ needs land.  Without the ability to quickly acquire land, setting up factories could take years.  As explained in previous posts, the PM has only 36 months to finish implementing key economic strategies so that the effects can be felt by 2019.

This leaves the PM in no-mans-land.  He can’t acquire land as any attempts to do so would render him with an anti-Farmer tag (the death knell of Indian politics) but if he doesn’t facilitate easy acquisition of land, he can’t implement his agenda and suffers the same electoral fate.

So how does he get himself out of this chakravuyha? 

Answer:  Government Land particularly Railway land.

Indian Railways is one of the biggest land owners in the country.  Given its proximity to the rail infrastructure, this land is exceptionally valuable.  Its commercial value is unquantifiable. 

It can be used for multiple purposes:

1.      To build factories which need supply of rail transported input materials and rail transported finished products (Cars, electronics, etc.)

2.     Tourism – hotels, restaurants, etc.

3.     Hospitals and health care centers

4.     Etc.

This land can be leveraged in two ways:

a)     Offer it to industries to kick start the ‘Make in India’ initiative

b)     Create land infrastructure bonds with this land as collateral

a.      These bonds can be given to all farmers in addition to the market value of their lands so that their financial future is secure

b.     The bonds could come with an healthy coupon rate – say 10% which would be an additional way to compensate the farmer

c.      Farmers could benefit in three ways

                                                             i.      Market value for the land acquired

                                                           ii.      Payment from the Bond upon maturity

                                                        iii.      Monthly interest payments from the Bonds

d.     Such compensation would come in addition to jobs for farmers in any new factories that come up on the land acquired

Such a strategy would help turn farmers into stakeholders in ‘Make in India’ and ensure immediate electoral dividends to the BJP government.

Why PM Modi Allowed Kejriwal to 'win' Delhi

Did the title of this post get your attention.

A speculative piece from Gulf News doing the rounds last week has made a similar claim.  But the arguments presented there are a bit off the mark.

Here's why I think Kejriwal was allowed to win, in fact encouraged to win.

In its eagerness to resurrect Kejriwal, BJP may have gone over board.  But the damage done from letting Kejriwal win 67 against 40 odd seats is minimal.

The first indication that something machiavellian was afoot came from the PM himself.  In his first election rally, PM Modi did something he hasnt done since he took office in 2001.  He made a direct attack on an opponent who was several notches below him in the pecking order.  One of MSM's biggest complaints in successive Gujarat elections was that the CM always attacked "Sonia ben" or "Maun Mohan Singh".

Not once did he attack his most virulent local critics.  Bharatsinh Solanki, Keshubhai Patel, Nitish Kumar, all launched direct, vicious attacks on him.  But the man maintained his composure.  Such is his self discipline that even a 12 year long, relentless, no-holds-barred attack could not provoke him into saying anything directly against any individuals other than the main targets - Sonia ben and MMS.

So when he did the complete opposite and attacked Kejriwal as a Naxalwadi, clearly something wasnt adding up.  BJP wanted to elevate Kejriwal's profile.

a) to help him win Delhi and
b) to become a potential national contender.

A second indication came from Swami Ramdev.  In an interview few days after this rally, he ridiculed Kejriwal and his 49 days of promises.  But then quickly wished him well "as the country needed a strong opposition". 

Note:  Swami Ramdev did not campaign in this election.  Given his massive following across north India, he would have been a perfect weapon to unleash against a 'Naxal', a 'batla-house-fake-encounter', Jihad loving Kejriwal.

Neither BJP nor its ancillary organizations raised key pain points - Plebiscite in Kashmir, Forgive Kasab, etc.

They did include some of these issues in the final 10 questions they asked Kejriwal.....but only on the day before voting!

Candidate selection, which has been Amit Bhai's secret sauce was completely flawed with rank outsiders given tickets where as hardworking, well-liked, proven local candidates were sidelined.

But what would be the rationale behind such an audacious move?  How would BJP benefit from this?

1. Political Vacuum

As BJP went from strength to strength in the early 90s, LKA famously offered his political insight "BJP's pace of expansion wasnt matching CONgress' pace of decline" (or something to that effect)

A north-India restricted BJP was unable to wipe out the Congress or fill it with a weaker alternative.

As Congress hit rock bottom, Sonia reversed course.  She swallowed her pride and reached out to potential alliance partners.  More importantly she offered a larger share of the pie.

A receding Congress circa 2003, may be just as dangerous as a comatose Congress circa 2018.

Such a scenario would get Priyanka to reach out to potential alliance Partners and form a formidable alliance

BJP needs a divide opposition.

2. Index of Opposition Unity

I believe defeat in post-May 2014, bye elections prompted a rethink in NaMo's core team.  That  staggering (2-10) defeat across Bihar and UP could only be explained by a unified opposition sinking its difference to keep BJP out of power.

A similar dynamic is likely to play out in run up to 2019.  A unified caste-minority segment will result in a massive blow to the BJP.

Even a hung Parliament would destroy PM Modi's ability to govern and implement his agenda.

And Delhi has proved this theory.  The opposition is ready to unite behind anyone strong enough to defeat BJP.

And this is where a rising Kejriwal comes in.

By making Kejriwal a player in national politics, Team NaMo has ensured that the opposition remains divided.

Kejriwal is caught between a rock and a political hard place.  If he aligns with the likes of Mulayam or Laloo he forfeits his USP.  If he rides alone, he doesnt have the time and resources to expand enough to become a real contender by 2019.  Perhaps by 2024 but that is loooong 10 years away.

Kejriwal will need massive resources to build a 'clean' organization across the country.
His two post-victory decisions suggests he that he has learnt his lessons and is aware of these limitations.

AAP wont fight any state level elections 2015, thus allowing a unified anti-BJP alliance to corner all opposition votes in Bihar.

Secondly, by making Sisodia his deputy CM, Kejriwal can be free to gallivant around the country to build a anti-BJP alternative.

If Kejriwal is able to siphon off even 10 % of minority votes in key states, the Delhi 'defeat' would have paid off for BJP

3. Neutralizing AAP

BJP was the up and coming party till the early nineties.  That is when it got elected in 4 major states across north India.  The stellar performance of those 4 govt. is now a fond memory.

But with political power came influence-peddling and political dalals and corruption.

Kejriwal's AAP is even more hamstrung in this department.  Not only has it promised the moon, people with conflicting interests are expecting Kejriwal to deliver on those pie-in-the-sky commitments.

Example:
If Auto Rickshaw drivers are given a free hand on what they charge customers and how they are tracked, a large section of Delhi's middle class will suffer.  If AAP tightens the screws on Auto drivers, the backlash will be swift and equally vicious.

Delivering on AAP's promises will need massive capital outlays.  For a state that has very little in terms of revenue generating industries, this would be close to impossible.

Besides, Kejriwal has promised baniyas there wont be any raids on them to collect taxes.

Without tax revenues, Kejriwal will have to resort to blaming the central govt. for not giving him what is his 'right'.

People expect performance not excuses.

With each passing day, the gap between performance and promises will grow wider and little by little AAP will lose its sheen.

If by some great miracle he does manage to hold his ground and perform on key parameters, he becomes a challenge to every left-of-center party across urban India.

Heads BJP wins, Tails Sickulars lose.

4. Keep AAP from being a permanent opposition

AAP in govt, exposes its many short comings.  Lack of experience, agitational mindset, unrealistic expectations, using a hammer as weapon of choice, etc.

In opposition AAP would have been a gunslinger for hire, constantly reminding voters how BJP was not delivering on its promises.

AAP is better in office i.e. under the microscope to busy defending itself to launch a serious attack on BJP

5. A benchmark to show Indians how difficult it is to deliver on promises

With AAP in govt, and failing to deliver on key commitments (they have already gone back on promise of free WIFI), people will see the Modi Govt in a new light.

The constant chant of 'where are ache din' will become muted with every passing day.  Moreover people will come to appreciate the stellar work BJP is doing on multiple fronts.


6.  Cleaning up Delhi BJP

BJP's Delhi unit was a mini incarnation of its national leadership circa 2012.  Bickering, backstabbing, self-absorbed leadership with a deeply ingrained sense of political self entitlement.

Even if BJP had tried to win this election they would have found a way to screw things up, ensuring that AAP remains a pain in the neck.

A butt whooping 3-67 defeat, gives Team NaMo just the hand they needed to jettison the Goels and Upadhyas and bring in a new hungry leadership.

All in all, this election 'defeat' will pay rich dividends in the years to come.

It is great to see that Team NaMo has already started preparing for 2019.

India and American Shale: A win-win-win relationship

Two narratives have emerged to explain the sudden and sharp decline in global oil prices.

One school of thought believes it part of America’s strategy to punish and eventually subdue a recalcitrant Russia and President Putin.

A second band of experts believes it is Saudi Arabia and OPEC’s play to destroy the American Shale revolution.

But are these two theories mutually exclusive?  Cant a drop in oil prices kill both birds with one stone i.e. bankrupt American shale producers and subdue Russia with the same stratagem.

Regardless of the reasons or conspiracies, the sudden drop in oil prices, present India with a-once-in-a-generation opportunity to secure a solid energy future with a multitude of crucial strategic benefits.

This is how it would work.

American Shale revolution has been credited for the revival of American economy.  Along with high paying jobs that it has created, Shale oil has brought America to the brink of becoming energy independent.  If the US govt reformed its rules and regulations on energy exports, America could rival Saudi Arabia as a global oil exporter.

With several hundred thousand jobs now at stake, local and national politicians are in a fix.  Large scale bankruptcies could set back American oil revolution by several decades and allow the Saudis to perpetuate their stranglehold on global oil supply well into the 5^th decade of this century.

Given that the Saudis have played a central role in the funding and spread of militant Islam, such an eventuality cannot help India’s interests.

More importantly, demise of a large supply of oil (shale in this case) will reward OPEC with a monopolistic control over global energy supplies and with it the ability to set the price of oil.

PM Modi’s ‘Make in India’ campaign will require large and cheap supplies of energy.  Fossil fuels, despite their shortcomings continue to be central to the economic revival of Indian economy.

This is why drop in Oil prices and their accompanying threat to the American economy presents India with a god sent opportunity to achieve several strategic goals with a single move.

India should present the American administration with the following proposals:

1.       India signs long term (10 years or more) agreements with the strongest, reserve-rich Shale oil producers to supply oil to India at a price ranging from $50 to $60 per barrel (which according to most experts is the price at which producers can make a healthy profit)

a.       A recalibration should be allowed for fluctuations in exchange rate and inflation

b.      American shale companies will in effect become utilities providing oil energy to India for a duration of 10+ years

c.       India can offer to make large advance payments to these companies to help them avert bankruptcies

2.       India should also demand better provisions on the nuclear agreement so that compensation reserves can be raised from the current Rs. 500 Cr to Rs. 2000 Cr or more

a.       The US Administration should be asked to consider backing these guarantees

b.      This should eliminate a big stumbling block for American Nuclear power companies to set up shop in India adding one more energy source to an energy-starved India

3.       America should be asked to ensure that India will be exempt from any future restrictions imposed on oil exporting countries such as Iran or Russia.

America would gain immensely from such an arrangement.  But the win-win nature of this strategy is what makes it feasible

1.       By helping avert collapse of American shale industry and saving several hundred thousand American jobs, India will gain tremendous goodwill across America

2.       An arrangement of this nature will seal a longer term relationship between the two democracies and help establish a foundation which can lead to greater cooperation across other sectors

a.       For example, the heart burn caused in America due to outsourcing could be partially mitigated by India stepping in to save American jobs

3.       A steady supply of oil at under $60 per barrel will allow the Modi Administration to keep domestic inflation in check and ensure low interest rates to trigger an Indian manufacturing revolution

4.       With a large consumer (India) effectively out of the oil market (given its long term arrangements with America Shale) price of oil on the open market should not exceed the $70 - $80 range.  This in turn will restrict the ability of countries like Saudi Arabia to fund their nefarious designs beyond a geo-political line-of-sight

5.       With a large consumer locked in place at a profitable price point, American shale revolution can be extended across the globe

a.       Improving exploration and extraction technologies, could help American shale producers tap hard to reach shale reserves in China and Latin America, further depressing the price of oil

Certainly such a strategy may bring OPEC nations to gang up against India, but with America on her side India can certainly weather that storm.

I hope someone on both sides is thinking and acting on these lines. 

PM Modi needs a Consigliere

Governing in the cesspool that is Delhi is markedly different from governing at a state level.  For that matter, Delhi itself is vastly different from say DC or Beijing or any other prominent political capital.  The crooks in those capitals play by a set of rules.  Rules that are only occasionally violated.  And when violated the punishment is severe.  A “Watergated” Nixon being a prime example.

Delhi on the other hand takes no prisoners.  It has been the capital of intrigue much longer than any other city.  Governing a populace and geographic foot print larger than any other capital in Human history.

More importantly, Delhi has seen it all.  Rulers and Dynasties have come and go, but good old Delhi chews them up and spits them out eventually.

It is this swamp of pimps, hos and assassins which Narendra Damodardas Modi has made it his life’s mission to reform and transform. 

What we’re witnessing today is a silent but lethal (may be even fatal) struggle between Delhi and PM Modi.

Only a man with NaMo’s courage, sagacity and wisdom could attempt to reform this city and bring her to her knees. 

But much like ABV, PM Modi is missing a key component in the political arsenal he has assembled.  That piece is an Amit Shah like figure within the government.  No not someone like Ahmed Patel.  Patel after all was a product of Delhi. 

What I’m describing here is a political mind who would guide and position NDA’s every action in the optimum political framework.  In fact it would help if such an individual was allowed to vet every government policy initiative before making it public.

It is the lack of such a Consigliere which has made NDA look like a one-step-forward-two-steps-back government.  Given the PM’s immense popularity and the relative youth of this government, none of UPA’s allegations are sticking.  But the Teflon may start wearing off around mid-2016.  When govt policies are more work-in-progress with little to show in terms of results.  Finding and recruiting a politico-government senapati at such a late juncture would prove ineffective and worst still, counterproductive.  Time for installing said Consigliere is now.

Moreover, BJP is interacting with the outside world, much the same way Congress did:

• Declare a policy or program
• Engage prime time news anchors in a nightly wrestling match
• Come back bruised and live to fight another day.

This tactic worked for UPA-1.  But once corruption charges started piling up, the very act of engaging non-Congress, non-UPA channels resulted in Sonia digging an even deeper hole for her brood and herself.

The Xmas controversy, Ghar Wapsi damp squib, are merely symptoms of this flawed, listless ‘strategy’ if indeed there’s one.

What it suggests is that opposition ranks, through their well nurtured assets in media, NGOs, etc. are sniffing around, probing to find a chink in NDA’s armor.

With Sonia’s corruption still fresh in people’s mind, this sniffing has yielded little.  But a few more months of a perceived drift and BJP will spend more time firefighting than governing and before you know it campaign 2019 will be underway with little to show for 3.5 years of governance.

By 2017, PM Modi will no longer be measured against performance of his predecessor but the vision of his former self i.e. CM Modi.

Given these variables, a Chief of Staff, Senapati, Consigliere within the PMO is of vital importance.

What would his/her resume look like and what would be the mandate?

Mandate:

1. Coordinate between various wings of the government on the correct message to be given to the larger public
   1. Do this without slowing down decision making
2.  
3. Pre-sell every policy by creating a ‘teaser’ campaign in the media
   1. Test the waters by feeding ‘inside’ info to non-state actors such as economists, journalists not associated with the BJP
   2. Keep a distance from these campaigns so ‘plausible deniability’ is seldom sacrificed
4. Dig up dirt on every Sonia asset in the media and NGO network.
   1. Tranquilize these assets by sending a subtle message without causing any public exposure or loss of face to them
5. On an ongoing basis anticipate and monitor fallout of government policies
6. Keep the NaMo Army engaged and equipped to confront future challenges
7. Game NDA’s policies to ‘predict’ their likely outcome
8. Conduct a political ROI of Govt programs
9. Collect and document data to establish NDA’s superior performance
10. Channel data/results back to government to help improve performance of various policies
11. Channel feedback from social media into various government initiatives so as to create a sense of partnership
12. Ensure that valid suggestions find their way into policies and programs

Resume:

1. Unknown face
2. Immersed in Sangh’s ideology
3. Someone who understands and can predict political fallout of government programs and policies
4. Committed to a ‘Congress Mukht Bharat’
5. Experienced in media management
   1. Not friendly or acquainted with any media outlet
   2. Has no history of interaction with media or NGO channels
6. Needless to say, completely non-corrupt
7. Tough, uncompromising and ruthless
8. Ability to engage a diverse section of BJP supporters – from board rooms to the political akhadas

In short, NDA needs a Sicilian consigliere.

Hope PM Modi can find such a person.  Would help reduce the noise and allow government to function more smoothly and deliver 2019.

 

PM Modi and his Internet Hindus

PM Modi is gradually losing support from a section of his core constituency i.e. Internet Hindus.  

Since taking office several small incidents have rocked this group to the core.   What has led to this rising anger against BJP’s govt is not so much the incident itself but the fact that top leaders of the BJP are now openly consorting and fraternizing with the same enemy who till a few months ago was hell bent on preventing NaMo from taking office.

BJP’s own ministers find it more appealing to ignore the right wing agenda and break bread with discredited, corrupt, compromised media pimps.

Moreover, this army of dedicated supporters took up arms against and defeated an enemy that BJP itself was never able to vanquish.  This may sound like a bombastic statement, but BJP’s own resources lacked a critical weapon in this war i.e. credibility

Sonia’s carefully cultivated media pimps had successfully countered LKA’s bid for PMship in 2009.  But with little more than an internet connection and shear resourcefulness this army of Internet Hindus went to fight on behalf of the PM.  Sonia’s efforts to spread lies against NaMo through her paid channels – media, AAP, etc. were neutralized largely due to the efforts of these Internet Hindus.

With no personal agendas, this group carried far more credibility than any BJP spokesperson or friendly media face.

Sonia’s media peddled a lie about NaMo – his performance as CM of Gujarat, Gujarat’s development model, etc.  Internet Hindus researched facts and presented them to the larger internet community.  These facts were repeated and reinforced across social media, blogs, comments sections, etc. and media’s black ops strategies were neutralized.

News anchors were check mated such that they could no longer host evening programs without taking cognizance of these facts.  If they ran a news items and omitted facts highlighted by Internet Hindus, outrage on social media would lead to a loss of credibility.  Unlike 2009, media was unable to peddle lies in an unending loop to paint NaMo as a ‘marketing phenomenon’ or a ‘communal monster’.

Sonia’s media was neutered and their attacks on NaMo boomeranged. 

On the flip side, without a clean, honest, proven leader like NaMo, none of this would have worked.  Fighting for NaMo was vastly different from fighting for LKA.  But even NaMo would acknowledge the contribution of his Internet Hindus.

Sadly, their emotions are blinding Internet Hindus to ground realities.

a.       PM Modi cannot control every leaf that falls from every branch of every tree.  He has taken complete control where it matters most as evidenced by his insistence on appointing key babus in every ministry.  He cannot micro manage down to a point where his generals revolt or sulk.  Pushing them to account for every minute of their lives would engender resentment and have adverse consequences on their performance

c.       While NDA2 may seem like appeasing minorities the ground realities are a bit different.  Actions which till April of 2014 were unimaginable are now routine.  Example:  clearing slums established by housing illegal Bangladeshis, reconversions, introduction of Sanskrit, etc.

a.       This suggests a careful carrot-and-stick strategy.  Appease minorities but affect a deeper social, economic and demographic change on the ground

d.      A massive military buildup across Indo-China border

e.      A smash mouth response to Paki provocations

f.        Dawood on the run

g.       A rapid scaling up of infrastructure development

h.      Controlling inflation

i.         Forcing Congress out of its strongholds

Moreover, the PM has seldom taken decisions without careful consideration.  His greatest quality is that he’s a brilliant listener and takes decisions after carefully considering all sides of the issue. 

Swatting a media mosquito or a small time babu is not a PM’s job.  He has much bigger dragons to slay.

Sonia has gifted him a patient with stage 4 cancer.  He has to first stop the cancer from spreading, heal the patient, reinstate her health and finally prepare her for battle.

We Internet Hindus in our anger over BJP leaders hobnobbing with media personalities are missing this larger picture.  PM Modi is clearly working to a plan.  He cannot possibly go public with it.  So give him 3-4 years and then judge his performance.

Given his track record, I’m certain he will exceed even our lofty expectations. 

How to Impress PM Modi

Oh the heartburn! An entire battalion worth of PM Modi’s army is disappointed.  Not because he won’t kowtow to their chosen right wing expectations, but because he won’t acknowledge their (genuine) efforts in helping get him elected by kowtowing to their preferred right wing leanings.

Some are expecting a piece of the action, others would like their ideological preferences reflected in his government’s policies and actions, still others would prefer government appointments to be made along sharp ideological lines.

Based on observing (almost obsessing over) the PM over the past 12+ years, what follows is a primer on how to impress the PM (if you wish to snag a place in the new dispensation)

• Don’t ask for it
  • Nothing annoys the PM more than individuals who demand a position.  Any position.  With the exception of a few top BJP leaders, few have had much success with lobbying for a position.
  • An indirect attempt won’t make much headway either.  Getting your flunkeys to raise a din will only annoy the man and push you further up his shit list and off his short list
  • Let your work speak for itself. 
• Toil in silence and obscurity shunning the limelight
  • Despite targeting by MSM Amit Shah has kept away from hogging the national limelight
  • CMs Khattar and Fadnavis elicited a ‘Khattar/Fadnavis who?’ when they were mentioned as front runners
  • NaMo prefers the old Sangh sanskar ‘Work without bothering with the fruits of your labor’.  He himself was a virtual unknown when BJP brought him to Gujarat as CM. 
• Lead a simple lifestyle
  • Mr. Modi is an ascetic, leading a no-frills lifestyle.  Living the good life doesn’t go down well with him.  Right through the recent state polls, his right hand man Amit Shah sought and maintained accommodation in 3 star hotels as a mark of austerity
  • DM Parrikar similarly leads an uneventful life
  • Ditto with CM Fadnavis
• Don’t speak to the media.  Don’t speak. Period
  • CM Modi always preferred making the his case directly with the people
  • His suspicion of the media may have been muted since taking office as PM, but it remains alive and kicking behind his politically correct pronouncement
  • His disdain for MSM is reflected in the use of DD and AIR as the primary channels for govt expression
  • Bottom line:  Don’t talk to the media or patronize media personalities
• Focus on your job
  • You may have great ideas.  Surely you should share them with the man.  But the responsibilities assigned to you are Job #1.  Getting distracted by side projects or political games is guaranteed to put you on his $%@&# list
• No job is too small
  • For a pracharak who toiled across the length and breadth of India in service of the nation, what attracts his attention is doing the little things.  Doing them well, with the same enthusiasm and passion as if it were a high profile undertaking.
• Produce Results
  • ‘Excuse’ is not a word in PM Modi’s dictionary.  Delete it from yours.  NDA has a mere 36 months to complete key projects.  It will take 18 months for results to register within and another 6 months to market these accomplishments across the country
  • Without results, you’re out.
• Have no personal agenda
  • There’s a very good reason why PM Modi can ask even his most ardent supporters to take a hike.  He has no personal agenda.  No family to ‘feed’, no friends to impress/enrich, no women to keep.  When a man’s only mission is the mission, he can afford to be ruthless.  Leaving your personal agenda at home will get you one step close to impressing the man.
• Finally suck it up and be prepared to work your tail off.  When the boss works a 80 week, 2 hour lunch breaks and extended weekend getaways are a luxury only UPA ministers and the first family could afford
• Eschew the temptations to put your hand in the cookie jar
  • This is a no brainer.  Nothing pissing him off more than public servants who treat people’s wealth as their own piggy bank.  Witness how none of the usual suspects have been allowed anywhere close to the ATM ministries. 
  • But this revulsion extends to even those fringe indiscretions which have become accepted behavior across govt bodies.  When the man himself donates every gift he receives what does that tell you?  Just stay away from even a hint of graft taking.

Hope these insights help you in snagging that much coveted position.  Best of luck.