Wednesday, July 9, 2014

PM Narendra Modi must run an unconventional Govt (Part 1)



In 1999 at the peak of the dot com boom, founder, CEO of a Fortune 100 company was asked about the euphoria and his views on the road ahead.  His prognosis: 99% of all dotcom companies would fail.  Needless to say it triggered a u-know-what storm. 

The CEO’s rationale:  eCommerce is a huge disruptive force but it would have to confront and negotiate a minefield of existing status quoists.  Trade unions, tax structure and old economy tycoons i.e. vested interests of every hue who had their considerable resources tied up in a system that worked and worked very well for them.

This rationale came back to me as the Modi Govt. took office.  NaMo confronts a similar cabal.  One far more lethal, better organized and entrenched than any Fortune 50 retail behemoth.

Much as NaMo deployed an unconventional political strategy to outwit his political opponents so will PM Modi need an unconventional governance strategy to outplay the entrenched club of political pimps, mobsters and courtiers.

  1. An unconventional market requires unconventional solutions
    1. Applying American solutions to Indian realities wont always work
    2. Example: Building massive universities is so 20th century.  Instead exploit emerging trends in MOOC to bring education to a massive pool of students at a fraction of the cost
  2. Short term fire fighting measures must take priority and (if possible) work hand-in-hand with long term vision
    1. Example: As news reports are suggesting Onion supply is not the problem.  Central Govt and buy Onions directly from farmers, employ BJP MPs and cadre to load trains with the produce and have them shipped to major cities
    2. Such dramatic action will give people a sense of hope and break the back of hoarders
  3. Campaign for 2019 began at 12 noon, May 16th 2014.  Conventional political wisdom would have NaMo launching a blitz around early 2018 to present his report card to voters.  That may be too late.
    1. Every decision, however controversial, will need to be run through a political filter and calibrated to enhance the PM’s image as a go getter, fighting the sewage rats left behind by Sonia’s family
  4. NDA2 has just 36 months to fully implement key programs so that the last 2 years can be used to ensure that the effects of these programs are felt and imbibed by voters which in turn get them excited to come out and vote in 2019
    1. “Indians mange more”, determine the minimum threshold of development required to win 2019 and work backwards – reverse engineer elections 2019
    2. Going back to the people on the eve of elections wont be enough to win another majority.
    3. Saying we’re only doing what UPA did or these are UPA policies wont cut it.
    4. NaMo’s enemies haven’t given up their PM hopes, only postponed them.
    5. A hung parliament in 2019 suits them just fine.
    6. With a clear mandate, NaMo can no longer benefit from a perception of David-Vs-Goliath.  He must work towards creating this perception and recapture the space.
  5. Replenishing India’s empty coffers is job #1 for the new administration
    1. Even if raising rates remains the preferred solution, NaMo must publicly pursue alternatives – issuing infrastructure bonds, raiding black money repositories, cutting labor costs by putting new govt recruitment on hold
  6. Encourage people’s participation at every stage of development – from concept to execution
  7. Every move you make will be publicly critiqued and scrutinized.  May as well keep up a continuous dialogue with voters
  8. Some enemies should remain enemies. Socializing with sickulars will only enrage core BJP supporters. 
    1. ABV’s NDA did not lose core supporters with one big disastrous move.  It was lost one small, innocuous sounding move at a time – from zero work on sealing bangla border to launching ‘secular’ bus across UP
    2. Don’t take your core supporters for granted i.e. keep sickular enemies of NaMo at arms length
  9. Everything NDA govt does will be placed at NaMo’s feet.  Must find a way to insulate NaMo from peripheral issues like promotion of Hindi.
  10. Trickle down economics takes time.  Achieving comprehensive development across all parts of India is impossible in 5 years
    1. Instead implement doable programs – building of check dams, seal bangla border, increasing police personnel per 100K citizens
      1. Big ticket initiatives can be launched in parallel without losing focus from low hanging fruit
    2. Come 2019 these show pieces can be used to enthuse voters to come out and vote
    3. Even as a high way network is being constructed, launch services which exploit the network
      1. Example:  Launch elements of a cold chain (Temperature controlled warehouses, integrated transportation hubs, etc.) on parts of the highway as they are being constructed so those along the constructed network can experience economic benefits of the network
  11. Non-BJP CMs will never cooperate with the NaMo administration.  A carrot and stick policy is the only real option
    1. Use CBI, IB and whatever dirt can be found to play hardball with entrenched interests
  12. PM Narendra Modi has said time and again:  People should not treat voting as an ‘outsourcing’ contract and must remain engaged.  Similarly the Govt. must engage with BJP cadre to ensure that development is reaching their local constituencies:
    1. Example:  Use Social media to monitor price rise and address supply-demand imbalances
More in part 2.








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