Raj Thackeray 1.5

Raj 1.5:  Raj Thackeray’s new strategy – a few random thoughts

Watching Raj Thackeray’s recent rallies, one can’t help but discern a definite shift in strategy.

Where Raj 1.0 was a brute force ‘Luca Brasi’, Raj1.5 is clearly better organized.  Not yet a ‘Vito Corleone’ but getting there. 

Notice, I’m not yet willing to assign a Raj2.0 version number to his most recent avatar.  Not yet.

In the three rallies held thus far, he has spent a mere 5% of his speech targeting ‘outsiders’.  More importantly, most of this targeting happened in his very first speech.  With each speech, the attack has focused on Maharashtra’s political leadership.  Namely, the Pawar clan.

Some of us have been hoping he would make such a shift.  And this ‘better late than never’ change in direction augurs well for Maharashtra’s politics and India’s future.

As explain here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/understanding-rise-of-raj-thackeray.html - Maharashtra is facing a huge political vacuum.  The present day leadership, cutting across party lines, is severely compromised.  Decades long prosperity has created financial gold mines.  Even petty politicians are reaping a windfall.  Political affiliations do not matter; these crooks have clearly earmarked their respective turfs, enforcing a political détente where the only victims are impoverished and helpless citizens.

Recent drought is only the latest manifestation of the political bankruptcy prevailing across Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena is allowed to preserve its hold over BMC (with a budget which exceeds that of most small states), CONgress keeps parts of Mumbai and the sugar belt, NCP keeps rest of Maharashtra with a  few bones thrown at BJP leadership to keep them in good humor.

More importantly, Sharad Pawar’s genius (or lack of political integrity) in presenting himself as the whore of Bombaylon, willing to align with any Delhi leadership which will preserve his fiefdom, ensures that no significant political challenge is ever presented by local or national leadership.

As Maharashtrians have come to this realization, a deep sense of despondency has crept into their engagement with the political establishment.  Saglech Chor – all are thieves - is a common refrain.

An electorate gripped by such disdain and hatred for politicians gives up on the democratic process, perpetuating the very political class they have come to detest.

Step in Raj Thackeray.

Given the very limited evidence presented by the 3 recent speeches, Raj Thackeray seems to have realized the following:

1.       The ‘other’, the ‘outsider’ can only become a boogeyman when voters have had experience with ‘negative’ effects of dealing with ‘outsiders’.  Vast parts of Maharashtra are untouched by ‘outsiders’.  Which limits its scope, restricting its efficacy as a voter catcher

2.       Across all regions, castes and religious segments, Maharashtra’s politician is now perceived as enemy No. 1.  This includes the BJP.  That alone can explain BJP’s decline across traditional strongholds like Vidharba

3.       Harping on outsiders, while pressing issues such as drought, lack of infrastructure, corruption are destroying Maharashtra, simply doesn’t cut it with most Maharashtrians.

a.       You can only blame outsiders for so much.  There are no outsiders in Vidharbha, so what explains the 12,000 farmer suicides and continuing decline in agriculture and overall economy

4.       Maharashtrian asmita is becoming a factor.  As Maharashtra watches NaMo transform a perennially drought ridden Gujarat into an agricultural juggernaut, Maharastrians are left wondering, why can’t we have a NaMo

5.       Raj Thackeray seems to have gauged the writing on the wall.  Development as a political issue has arrived

I believe this subtle change in strategy will benefit Raj Thackeray tremendously.  As predicted years ago, the departure of Balsaheb will accrue most of his constituency to Raj Thackeray.  He’s the rightful heir to the big Man’s political legacy.

In every speech Raj Thackeray has taken great care not to speak disparagingly about Maharashtra’s senior politicians.  Even when he criticizes them he uses proxies or first acknowledges their age and the respect it deserves.

By doing so, he’s subtly appealing to Maharashtra’s older generation which has remained immune to his appeal.  The Youth of Maharashtra is lining up behind him. 

Another key factor is his clear tilt toward the NDA.  In praising Nitish Kumar at his Solapur rally, he has tried to build bridges to ensure future induction into the NDA.

He’s working to a plan.

He has taken care not to directly target SharadP.  That would be suicidal.  Vast sections of Maharashtra where SharadP has helped create (or maintain) pockets of prosperity, SharadP still reigns supreme.  By targeting his nephew Ajit, Raj Thackeray has targeted SharadP by proxy.

SharadP is no babe in the woods.  He helped create Raj Thackeray by unleashing him 4 years prior to the 2010 elections.  He’s the grand master of this game.

Raj Thackeray better watch his back.  The Empire Always Strikes Back.

Conspiracy Behind Afzal/Kasab Hangings

My initial reading on the Afzal Guru execution was more on conventional lines - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/making-sense-of-afzal-gurus-hanging.html

A ham handed attempt on the part of Sonia’s war room to prevent a Hindu/Urban consolidation behind NaMo.  Upon further analysis though a sinister motive has emerged.

This theory is based on connecting the dots.  I have no ‘inside’ information.

Let’s examine these dots.

Dot Number 1:

Conventional wisdom fails to explain how a minority vote hungry CONgress would expose itself to the accusation of punishing Muslims but letting Hindus off the hook.

Hindu/Urban vote has always been a floating, splintered entity.  Minority vote on the other hand is a rock solid electoral block.  How does a minority appeasing CONgress make a 180 degree turn without the guarantee of an alternate segment to replace it?  More importantly, these actions permit regional players like SP and BSP to corner the minority vote.

Dot Numbers 2, 3 and 4:

Kasab and Afzal are hanged within weeks of each other.  Timing of Afzal Guru’s hanging in particular is perplexing.  But add Shinde’s “Hindu” terror remark to the mix and suddenly a different (more sinister) picture emerges.

Dot Number 5:

As soon as news of Afzal’s hanging went public, the usual pseudos ramped up their ‘but what about perpetrators of Gujarat carnage’ diatribe.

These pseudos serve as proxies for the grievance mongering that as afflicted minority politics for the past several decades.  Muslims are never to be blamed for their own backwardness, muslims take to terror because they have been wronged, muslims are victims.

This constant harping on Hindu Terror, Gujarat riots, etc. is laying the ground work to justify a retaliatory attack on Hindu targets.

Dot Number 5:

Beheading of Indian soldiers.  The timing makes no sense.  There was no provocation.  Were Jihadis testing the waters?  How would Indians react if a popular leader was assassinated? Surely riots would ensue, but would the Indian state start a war?

Dot Number 6:

There’s a well-established precedence wherein serious political threats to the Dynasty have been neutralized.  I have never believed the canard behind Pramod Mahajan’s killing.  There was more to it.  His brother never admitted to the killing and died of brain hemorrhage while in prison.  More importantly, his assassination came within months of ABV anointing him his successor by calling him BJP’s Laxman behind LKA’s Ram. 

Similarly Madhavrao Scindia, Rajesh Pilot and Jitendra Prasad died in accidents or under questionable circumstances within months of each other.

This trend follows the mysterious death of Lal Bahadur Shastri – The finest PM India has had.  And one who could have buried the Dynasty forever.

Dot Number 7:

NaMo represents just such a threat.  He could send modern India’s Mughal dynasty to the political dumpster where it belongs.  Most importantly next generation of Dynasty scions are too young and do not carry the Gandhi name to be in position to recover ground if NaMo comes to power.

With the Sangh and the larger Hindu ummah lining up behind NaMo, he’s becoming unstoppable.  And once he assumes power it will become impossible to dislodge him.

It is a case of now or never for the dynasty.

So here’s the bottomline:

Kasab/Afzal were hanged to provoke retaliation from terror cells.  Surely, these cells have been preparing for just such a day.

Narendra Modi must guard against such an assassination attempt.  This campaign season exposes him.

Most importantly, Dynasty cannot afford to fail.  They’ll have one shot at him.  If they fail he becomes larger than life.

May Goddess Bhavani protect her favorite son.  Jai Mata Di.  

Making Sense of Afzal Guru's Hanging

The Politics behind Afzal Guru’s unexpected execution

There’s a broad agreement on one issue.  Afzal Guru was hanged with an eye on emerging political scenario.  This sudden appeal to nationalistic voters makes little sense.  When execution of a Pakistani terrorist like Ajmal Kasab feeds minority grievance mongering and backfires on secular parties, why the sudden alacrity in executing (an Indian) Afzal Guru?  Let’s try to make sense out of this.

1.       Sonia is sensing (and rightly so) a growing Hindu consolidation behind NaMo

2.       NaMo has usurped and monopolized two major electoral issues – Corruption and Development – ‘communal’ polarization remains Sonia last and only option

3.       With NaMo’s nomination now a mere formality, minority votes are certain to consolidate against him

a.       This cold calculation lies behind the abrupt hanging of Afzal Guru

4.       With minorities having no other option but the CONgress, preventing a counter Hindu consolidation has become Sonia’s top priority

5.       As diverse voting segments ranging from Sadhus to SRCC students line up behind NaMo, panic is setting in

6.       Afzal Guru’s abrupt hanging is a cynical ploy to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds

7.       It won’t work.

8.       The simmering anger that permeates across muslim ghettos is bound to rise

9.       Afzal Guru’s hanging will force a relook at accepted political equations: Muslims have only CONgress as a political option

a.       In areas where a Muslim party/candidate is a viable option (Assam, West Bengal), Muslim votes are likely to consolidate around that entity

b.      Here in lies an opportunity for BJP to upset CONgress’ apple cart by putting up a very strong Hindu candidate or make a calculated move to withdraw from the contest to allow counter Hindu consolidation around a viable Hindu candidate from a neutral political party like TMC in Bengal or TDP in Andhra

10.   Much as a panic stricken Rajiv Gandhi permitted Shilanyas at Ram Mandir to assuage growing Hindu anger over the Shah Bano fiasco, so has Sonia blundered by hanging Afzal Guru so close to the election

In trying to prevent a Hindu consolidation behind NaMo, Sonia has only fueled the NaMo juggernaut.

A Letter to Pink Chaddis

RE:  Ban on Vishwaroopam

Dear Pink Chaddis,

I write to you, not as a member of that much loved fraternity – the Internet Hindus, but as a fellow Indian and supporter of free speech.  Though we may harbor a diametrically opposing world view, we share much in common.  Support for a free exchange of ideas being one such tenet.

Before you jump on the ‘But what about M. F. Hussain’ bandwagon, let me assure you that most Hindus didn’t really give a rat’s behind what MFH painted. 

Our anger arose from the shear lack of reciprocal and proportionate outrage when a Da Vinci code or Satanic Verses is banned.

The hypocrisy in your selective outrage is what gets our goat.

Having said that let me get to the point.  Ranting against us Internet Hindus is a zero-risk project for you Pink Chaddis.  You know there won’t be any retaliation other than our often witty and always acerbic tongue lashing.  You can even leverage our reaction as a badge of honor to further buttress your secular, liberal credentials on the cocktail circuit.

As you wallow in this celebration of “oh, look how I showed those Sanghis their place”, keep in mind that a far more sinister and ruthless enemy is nipping at your heels.  He’s no longer a fringe presence, far away from your existence behind the haloed walls of Lutyens or cuffe parade or Bandra.  This enemy is preparing to tear down your door.  Rip it from the hinges.  In countries and communities across the world, once this enemy attains critical mass, there’s no turning back.  He will come for you.

Because, he’s not against what you do, he’s against who you are. 

Every belief you hold dear, every privilege you assume as your god given birth right, insults and strikes at the very foundations of his belief system.

Unless you’re willing to change every aspect of your very existence, from the clothes you wear to the food you eat, to the dreams you dream, this enemy will impose his beliefs on you.  And this imposition won’t stop at a ban on your thoughts.  It will strike at your very existence.  Either resemble him in all its ‘glory’ and obey his dictates or give up your existence.

This enemy has presented us with voluminous evidence of his intent.  This enemy has repeatedly shown the will to take this intent to its logical conclusion.  It’s a blood lust demonstrated across geographies, across communities.

Either be willing to be its latest victim or join your benign bête noire – the Internet Hindus.

Stand with us, sink our differences and fight this evil that threatens all that our ancestors have achieved and protected over millennia.

 

This enemy is relentless and only a united front can defeat him. 

Divided we fall.  But you will go first.

Yours truly

A Proud Internet Hindu

 

 

 

Seal the border. Zero-contact with Pakistan

Seal the Border with Pakistan - literally and figuratively or be willing to accept 'The Islamic Republic of India'

I belong, like most Indians, to a generation that has no love or affection for Pakistan.  We have nothing in common.  Culture, language, food, religion, outlook for the future, aspirations…nothing. I know not one Indian under the age of 50 who has a romantic desire to embrace Pakistan.  There are surely some North Indians and co-religionists who have a romantic view of Pakistan and the accompanying ‘Aman ki Asha’.  But for most Indians, Pakistan is a degenerate sewer, best left to its own bleak destiny.

But as the sinister process to embrace Pakistan gains momentum (4^th beheading of our martyrs will only introduce a temporary pause) we must raise the alarm.  We must take an extreme position. 

Not only are cordial ties with Pakistan unacceptable, any type of interaction with Pakistan and Pakistanis must be stopped and prevented. 

This may sound outlandish and jingoistic.  But there’s a solid rationale behind it.  Failure to embrace this zero-contact doctrine risks India’s future as a secular liberal nation.  It jeopardizes all that we hold dear, our culture, our great heritage, our rightful place at the high table of the community of civilized nations.

To understand the zero-contact doctrine, let us take ‘Aman ki Asha’ to its logical conclusion and see what would happen.

Indian ‘Jaichands’ ignore Pakistan’s repeated perfidy and impose upon us, growing people-to-people (P2P) contacts with Pakistan. 

A comatose Indian middle class, preoccupied with lighting its candles or planning its next vacation to Bangkok, refuses to learn from history and ignores growing ‘friendly’ ties with Pakistan. 

Visa restrictions are lifted. 

Pakistanis and Indians can freely visit each other’s countries. 

Cross border marriages become the norm. 

Pakistani movie stars make a beeline for Bollywood. 

Bollywood launches many a Pakistani star.

Indian youth is seduced by a Pakistani 'Shah Rukh Khan'.

Indian media wets its britches and tom toms these developments as proof of peace ‘dividends’.

Meanwhile, border areas of Punjab and Rajasthan see a slow but steady demographic change. 

Fake currency and narcotics trade seduce border residents into parting with their lands at above market prices.  Land is purchased by ‘Indians’, aided and abetted by India’s ‘secular’ parties. 

Mosques and minarets start appearing.  Madrassas begin sprouting.

Meanwhile, growing sporting and cultural ties neuter any voices of protest that rise every time there’s a terror attack within Indian borders.  Attacks are blamed on the ‘fringe’ elements within Pakistan.

“Look how the majority of Pakistanis support Bollywood and ties with India” becomes the war cry of Team Aman-ki-Asha.

Meanwhile, continuing demographic change, forces a vast majority of India’s political parties to become Sharia-friendly, and take a soft approach on Pakistan.

Growing business ties, create a Indian lobby that will do everything possible to prevent an Indian retaliation/attack on Pakistan.

As Pakistani cells take over key border areas, infiltration increases.  Not of militants, but of ordinary Pakistanis.  Settlements crop up and dense border areas bleed into adjoining villages and districts.  Vast swaths of Rajasthan, Punjab and even Kutch see sprouting of the RoP.

Grievance mongering by the likes of Owaisi becomes routine.  Comatose Indians ignore it and the more affluent ones, make plans to migrate to other countries.

The writing is on the wall:  Islamic Republic of India becomes a matter of ‘when’.

The aforementioned scenario may not play out exactly as described.  There may be intermittent resistance to this change, but if Bangladesh with a tiny population can procreate like rabbits to send over 20 MM Bangladeshi to India and change the character of states like Assam, West Bengal, just imagine what a 200 MM strong Pakistan would achieve.

Most importantly, Indians have shown little or no aptitude to resist or stem this demographic change.  Even without Aman-ki-Asha we’re well on our way to becoming an Islamic Republic within 50 years.

‘Friendship’ with Pakistan will only hasten that process.

Wake up now. Seal the border. Zero-contact with Pakistan.

p.s. - Non-Muslims have gone from 20% of Pakistan's population (in 1947) to less than 1%. 

How long before Non-Muslims go from 80% of India's population to being less than 1% of the population of The Islamic Republic of India.

Part 2: A dreamer’s take on how to counter Pakistan

The Iceberg Theory

The Iceberg Theory

As we await results of the 2012 Gujarat polls, I can’t help but gloat.  For several years now, yours truly has postulated these seemingly naïve and preposterous theories vis-à-vis NaMo’s fortunes in Delhi.  Having been ridiculed, even by some well-meaning Internet Hindus, I can’t help but gloat at how these theories are playing out almost exactly as I had predicted.  (Once twitter allows for wider historical search, I’ll look up all my old tweets and publish them as proof)

One such theory is the theory of the ‘Iceberg’:

“NaMo’s support base resembled an Iceberg.  A vast section lay hidden beneath the surface and given the appropriate circumstances, it would begin revealing itself”.

Post 2007 as I surveyed my super liberal friends, I sensed a grudging respect for NaMo.  The counter questions they posed to my hagiographical arguments in favor of NaMo were the typical ELM talking points. “But what about 2002” and “what about democratic institutions”.  As I silenced them with facts and figures, the expressions on their faces and the tone in their voices changed.  It was no longer as sharp and strident.  In fact, there was a frustration writ large on their faces.  A sentiment I could sense but could not identify.  It was almost, like they wanted to support NaMo, but something prevented them from doing it openly.

Was it fear of social ostracism? Did this fear of being branded a ‘communalist’ or a ‘Sanghi’ preclude them from openly expressing their support?

That was the first indication that a vast reservoir of support for NaMo did exist.  A further analysis of  public figures revealed another startling insight.  Very few were willing to go on record to criticize NaMo.  The usual Pinkos were clearly anti-NaMo, but they were greatly outnumbered by the silent fence sitters.

But were these fence sitters, straddling those fences due to fear of being caught up in the political crossfire or were they closet supporters of NaMo, who would, given the right circumstances, jump the fence and publicly advocate the NaMo-for-PM line.  May be I was dreaming but this theory jived with another theory I had first postulated back in 2004 when CONgress came back to power:

Sonia’s CONgress (with its decade long pent up greed) would ruin India once and for all. 

I had no idea how they would accomplish this feat. But having followed CONgress closely since 1984, I had no doubt; their talent at screwing India would, sooner rather than later, manifest itself. 

NaMo’s victory in 2007 and UPA-I’s non-performance convinced me that this this ‘Iceberg’ theory had legs.   All we needed was a catalyst or several successive catalysts.

Results of Gujarat 2012 are that catalyst, that inflection point.  As everyone from Madhu Kishwar, Tavleen Singh, Kiran Muzumdar and others, openly support NaMo, this ‘Iceberg’ theory is coming true.  And it will now feed on itself.  The Network Effect will start kicking in.  As the Oxbridge crowd jumps on the NaMo bandwagon, more and more Indians will start openly supporting NaMo.  Each will use a reason to justify their support (from the economy to corruption to NaMo’s track record to the TINA factor) but support they will.

This exodus will feed another suggestion I made a couple of years back.  That NaMo must start building an army of apostles.  Public figures in every state/city willing to go to the people and explain the Modi Miracle.

As these public figures start supporting NaMo openly, MSM will launch a virulent counter offensive and target them.  Given the changed circumstances (with NaMo within reach of Delhi), these attacks will not only fail to intimidate this growing band of supporters but also turn these public figures into a de facto Army of NaMo apostles.

NaMo has now ceased to be a political leader; he is now a movement, an idea.

 “There is no force more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo

In Defense of Balasaheb Thackeray

As tributes flood news wires, Pink Chaddis predictably are getting their….well….Pink Chaddis in a twist. So let us educate them and set the record straight.

But before we get into the details allow me to narrate an amusing personal anecdote. A catholic (needless to say rabidly anti-Sena) friend once scolded me. A muslim neighbor had slaughtered a goat for Bakri id in his building’s backyard, a few feet from my friend’s doorstep. His exact statement was “What the fuck is your Thackeray doing. Why can’t he stop this nonsense”? I stood there dumbfounded. My only response was “When was the last time you or your family voted for Shiv Sena?”

What this incident illustrated was a schizophrenic relationship Mumbai’s Pink Chaddis had with the Sena. In private, Sena and its ‘goons’ were “those fucking Ghatis” ruining cosmopolitan BOMbay. But in deep recesses of their collective consciousness, when fear of marauding herds of Mullahs distilled their minds of any semblance of political correctness, they called out in pain to the one man they knew could help them. The one man whose aforementioned Ghatis had the courage (some may say foolishness) to place life and limb on the line to defend that liberal Indian culture called Hinduism.

Balasaheb was ‘Parochial’

No Indian politician can be considered devoid of his/her regional bias. Balasaheb was no exception. This phenomenon can be witnessed across the world. Example: Catalonia in Spain is witnessing a secessionist firestorm thanks to a stagnant economy. Closer to home, the anti-Hindi agitation in Tamil Nadu was supported by every single Tamilian politician cutting across party lines. This agitation had nothing to do with economic drivers. No one can diminish a great language like Tamil. But how easy it was (and still is) to rile up Indians based on regional sentiments.

That however, does not justify the violent methods adopted by Balasaheb first against south Indians and then against other non-Marathis.

Strong regional identities give birth to parochial politics. Why then should we single out Balasaheb. He was doing nothing different.

Balasaheb hurt Hindu ‘Unity’

Those who suggest that Saheb hurt Hindu unity must first acknowledge that the term ‘Hindu Unity’ is itself an oxymoron. India’s enslavement is a direct result of the endemic disunity that has been its bane since before the arrival of Muslim invaders.

Now that we have established Balasaheb as being no different from most other regional leaders vis-à-vis parochial regional politics, here’s why he remains Hindu Hriday Samarat.

1. Sacrifice the Marathi Cause for the larger Hindu Cause

a. When a rising Hindu Backlash presented a strong opportunity to usher in the first Hindu government in Delhi and Mumbai, Balasaheb sacrificed his son-of-the-soil, bread and butter issue in the interest of the larger Hindu Ummah. Has any other politician ever taken such a huge risk. No doubt, he left a flank open for a competitor to stake claim to the Marathi manoos vote bank, but in the interest of the much parroted but seldom practiced Hindu unity Saheb stepped up and embraced the transition.

b. Cynics may argue that the Marathi Manoos plank was a dead horse. In that case Raj Thackeray’s MNS should have been a non-starter. The Marathi manoos plank was and is, alive and Kicking, but Saheb choose Hindutva

2. Balasaheb as Robin hood

a. From combating rising milk prices by raiding Milk vans and distributing the spoils to poor Maharastrian families to helping educate kids from less fortunate, stories of Sena coming to the aid of the embattled common man are now legend. But what surprised even a politically informed person like me was the yeoman’s service rendered by Balasaheb to Kashmiri Pandits. Saheb had no skin in the game. KPs were a small, electorally insignificant community, concentrated in North India, where the Sena had little or no presence. Yet he helped them. He helped them by reserving seats Maharashtra’s educational institutions for Kashmiri Pandits. And THIS man was parochial. THIS man hurt Hindu unity. More importantly, neither he nor his party ever beat their breasts claiming these good deeds. That was the class of the man.

3. Bulwark against rising tide of Islamism

a. The past 5 years have witnessed a rising tide of Islamic aggression across India. From UP to now Hyderabad, a new Khilaphat movement is underway. Events of August 11 were a curtain raiser.

b. For years Balasaheb was the only real threat to these armies of darkness. Without him Hindus would have become a mere statistic

c. It is easy for armchair pundits (me included) to pontificate on the virtues of political correctness. But when the rubber meets the road, when a mullah is threatening to take your daughter (as a Christian Mala Sinha who went to Saheb to save her daughter from Music director Nadeem’s love Jihad) or impose Sharia on a innately liberal Hindu society, there are only two outcomes. Fight or Flight. Saheb and his ‘Ghatis’ stood their ground and fought. In the process they saved us from a Muslim Mumbai/Maharashtra.

Next time an Owaisi or Azam comes knocking on their doors, Hindus and Pink Chaddis will beg for a 1000 more Balasahebs to be reborn.

All-in with NaMo-for-PM

NaMo must go All-in

I have been vacilating between the following 2 scenarios:

1.       Should NaMo not put his face on BJP's 2014 battle for Delhi and throw his hat in the ring only if BJP secures 180-200 seats

OR

2. Go all-in and become BJP's face for Delhi from the get go
 

Increasingly, I’m leaning toward scenario #2 with a few caveats.

Here are the reasons:

a)      If we go with scenario #1, BJP may still risk muslim consolidation but not benefit from a counter Hindu-consolidation and end up losing the election.  In this scenario if BJP wins less than 170 seats, NaMo will be blamed and that blame will be used to curtail any future attempts.  Much as his 2009 LS campaign results are held against him - though he was just a campaigner and not the PM candidate - so will results of 2014 be used to hold him back.

b)      NaMo as PM Candidate needs time to percolate to a wider voter base.  Currently urban and semi-urban cities and towns have heard and imbibed the Modi-Miracle but rural populations may have remained relatively untouched.  NaMo-for-PM will need to reach these voters to help create a critical mass of voters to reach the magic figure of 200 seats

c)       NaMo-for-PM will turn into a war cry on both sides of the political divide.  Sangh’s strong ground game will allow BJP to harness this consolidation far better than CONgress or other secular parties

d)      There is a danger of pseudo secular parties joining forces:  Laloo-SP-CONgress-JDU alliance would seem unsurmountable.  But such a consolidation will work in NaMo’s favor.  Corruption will come to be equated with pseudosecularism with NaMo as the sole torch bearer of clean, efficient, politics of development.

Time will reveal efficacy of the best strategy.  For now NaMo-for-PM appears to be the best bet. 

Sangh and Nitin Gadkari

The Sangh’s Point-of-View

 

Over the past few months a persistent hum has developed across social and mainstream media.  The basic theme revolves around how the Sangh wants NitinG as President because he belongs to their ethnic stock i.e. Maharastrian Brahmin.

To understand why this line of thinking is flawed we need to examine the not-so-distant history that has shaped the Sangh’s impulses.

Dial back to the late 90s and early 2000s.  BJP had securely ensconced itself in the corridors of power.  Not only in Delhi but also several state capitals.  A truly non-CONgress political entity has begun the process of creating a permanent space for itself in the opposition ranks.

There is no disputing that Sangh and its sister organizations played a central role in bringing this long cherished dream to fruition.  Thousands of Swayam Sevaks sacrificed their lives in the service of their motherland to turn a once fringe political party with merely 2 seats on the throne of Delhi.

Not since Maharaja Rana Pratap had a truly Hindu outfit ruled Delhi.  This was an epochal achievement.

Back in 2004 on a trip back home just prior to the LS elections, I happened to speak to a lifelong sympathizer of the Sangh.  She was in a foul mood vis-à-vis ABV’s NDA government.  The discussion was initiated by me regarding the growing corruption within ranks of the BJP and how it was touching the Sangh.

Her response:  “So why shouldn’t the poor sangh cadres make a little money.  Aren’t they the ones who have installed these jokers in power?  Why these Johnnies-come-lately, alone enjoy the spoils of power”.  The response shocked me.  That such thinking was being articulated was a new phenomenon.

Upon digging further, the true picture emerged.  As had happened with the CONgress, post-independence (with families and relatives of some freedom fighters making a small fortune thanks to their proximity to power), so were some BJP leaders filling their coffers with their families prospering beyond imagination.

The Mahajans and Anant Kumars were climbing on shoulders of ordinary Sangh workers to acquire all the trappings of power.  From plush writing instruments to designer wear to all expenses paid junkets to exotic, unheard of tourist destinations, the stories were becoming legend.

Why should real workers suffer when these good-for-nothing leaders were violating every Hindutva tenet to destroy the core value system that made BJP – the party with a difference.

Note:  On a side note, one reason why NaMo is so liked and admired by the Sangh cadre is because he fulfills every promise the RJB revolution had promised without compromising on any core principles.

Post 2009, RSS came to a simple conclusion:  D4 in active collusion with the Dynasty had destroyed BJP’s chances.  Only a puppet as BJP president would do the trick.  And who better than one of their own.  A karyakarta they knew inside out.  A karyakarta who would never violate any order from Nagpur.

In conclusion, it is not NitinG’s ethnicity that has catapulted him to the President’s chair, but his perceived MMS like quality of being compliant and obedient.

Clearly this experiment has failed.  The Sangh needs to focus on much larger goals.  And there are many.  Cleaning up the Ganga, creating a parallel education and health care system across India which would rival systems run by religions of peace and harmony.

Next 24 Months

The Next 24 months.

December 20^th is shaping out to be the second biggest date in history of Independent India.  The widespread fear across India’s political spectrum is that once the smart, industrious Gujarati reelects NaMo as CM with an even bigger mandate, there will be no looking back.

Political momentum does not occur in a vacuum and once acquired there’s no guarantee that it can be sustained.  However, the NaMo juggernaut has been building for several years now.  Like a silent tsunami it threatens the evil edifice that CONgress represents.

December 20^th promises to finally unleash this revolution at an all India level.  Most importantly, it promises to weave together the plethora of Anti-CONgress, anti-Corruption threads into a single impregnable torrent with NaMo as its only, all powerful sootradhar.

Note:  CONgress with help from a pliant media will try to turn a NaMo led campaign into a Anti-Corruption Vs. Anti-communalism contest.  It wont work.  2014 will be fought on a single issue: Corruption.  With development being its natural sidekick.

Let us look at all the primary players and why their chances are best a self-delusion:

1.       Arvind Kejriwal

a.       Great creditials but no real organization to win even a handful of seats

2.       Nitish Kumar

a.       Could aspire to lead the 3^rd front, but if another satrap like Mamta or Maya or Jaya wins a similar pool of seats, BJP may support her to keep him out

3.       Jaya

a.       Anti-incumbency seems to be catching up, but DMK ‘s trouble are fresh in public memory and 35 seats could be a real possibility

b.      BJP infighting may enable her to become the preferred compromise candidate

4.       Maya

a.       Dalit-as-PM will be hard to resist if BJP gets less than 150 seats

b.      Even CONgress may not be averse to outside support as long as she extends the same keep-CBI-at-bay courtesy to the first family

c.    But backlash from non-dalits may hurt her chances.  Given that anti-corruption will be the single most important issue, her track record will hurt her chances
 

5.       Mamta

a.       Mamta is a wild, volatile card.  Fellow politicans detest unpredictable behavior (Ex: BalT, KalyanS).  Despite winning 30 seats, Mamta would be the least acceptable 3^rd front candidate as PM

6.       Sharad Pawar

a.       Even Sena/MNS would find it hard not to support SharadP if he can win 30 seats (a tall order in Maharastra).  Needless to say SharadP would have to part with vast reserves of his wealth to acquire his supporters

b.      Given his former title as the King of Corruption, supporting him would mean certain (short term) political death for the likes of Mamta/Jaya/Naveen.  He cannot win Delhi with support from the Marathi Manoos alone.  Chances are dim.

7.       Mulayam

a.       Mulayam can certainly bank on the Muslim vote, but the spotlight will expose massive degree of corruption his regime has/is perpetrating on UP

b.      A Yadav-as-PM may even help bring support from Laloo in Bihar but this support will be neutralized with other castes aligning against him

8.       Rahul Gandhi

a.       Eh…..case closed

9.       Sonia stooge

a.       A clean, submissive, pliant replacement to ManMohan is hard to find

b.      Intelligence seldom accompanies subservience.  MMS is a league all his own

c.       Dynasty will prefer NaMo as PM instead of risking deploying another Narsimha Rao

That brings us to NaMo

a.       As you have notice all the aspirants listed above are leaders with their own mass basses

b.      2014 would be a clear choice between voters who view corruption as the greatest menace and those viewing ‘communalism’ as the biggest threat to the future of India

c.       In the absence of any major riots in the past 5 years, threat of communalism has begun to recede in minds of the average non-muslim Indian voter

d.      Even the muslim voter will only vote against BJP so as to keep NaMo out, rather than out of any real fear of riots

e.      An agitated polity is looking for the following traits in its leader

                                                               i.      A proven track record of delivering a modicum of development

                                                             ii.      A squeaky clean record on corruption

1.       MMS offered this quality and voters were willing to forgive his passivity but that wont cut it in 2014

2.       Both personal integrity and the will to impose exacting standards of integrity across government bodies will be a fundamental prerequisite

                                                            iii.      Ability to manage inflation

                                                           iv.      Proven ability to fight corruption

                                                             v.      A record of preventing communal conflagration without pandering to vote bank politics

The NaMo Momentum – or shall we call it the NaMomentum, helps explain almost every significant political/media machination of the past 12 – 18 months.  Once the Godhra missile proved to be a damb squib,  NaMomentum was recognized and accepted by all aspirants to Delhi’s throne and has subconsciously taken political center stage.  Though India media will keep denying it and political ‘analysts’ will cite fringe factors to buttress NaMo’s unviability as PM candidate, everyone has accepted that there’s no other alternative. 

From NitishK’s adhikar yatra to Sonia’s reshuffle to the targeting of NitinG, every move is being conducted with the looming fear of a NaMo PMship.

NaMo gains nothing by dislodging a NitinG.  Its simply too early.  Infact, having a lame duck BJP president suits him just fine.  Much as the country has come to see him as the lord and savior so to will the Sangh and its proxies within the BJP.  The longer NitinG occupies the seat the better for NaMo.

The same cannot be said about D4.  Their only chance is to install themselves or one of their own as the next BJP President this December.

Clearly this stratgem will not suffice. But they are left with few options.  Much as NitishK is desperately trying to usurp Bihari Asmita so as to capture 30+ seats in Bihar, so too is D4 trying to counter BJP before NaMomentum pushes the throne of Delhi well beyond their reach.

Dream on suckers, NaMomentum is now unsurmountable.