Raj Thackeray 1.5

Raj 1.5:  Raj Thackeray’s new strategy – a few random thoughts

Watching Raj Thackeray’s recent rallies, one can’t help but discern a definite shift in strategy.

Where Raj 1.0 was a brute force ‘Luca Brasi’, Raj1.5 is clearly better organized.  Not yet a ‘Vito Corleone’ but getting there. 

Notice, I’m not yet willing to assign a Raj2.0 version number to his most recent avatar.  Not yet.

In the three rallies held thus far, he has spent a mere 5% of his speech targeting ‘outsiders’.  More importantly, most of this targeting happened in his very first speech.  With each speech, the attack has focused on Maharashtra’s political leadership.  Namely, the Pawar clan.

Some of us have been hoping he would make such a shift.  And this ‘better late than never’ change in direction augurs well for Maharashtra’s politics and India’s future.

As explain here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/understanding-rise-of-raj-thackeray.html - Maharashtra is facing a huge political vacuum.  The present day leadership, cutting across party lines, is severely compromised.  Decades long prosperity has created financial gold mines.  Even petty politicians are reaping a windfall.  Political affiliations do not matter; these crooks have clearly earmarked their respective turfs, enforcing a political détente where the only victims are impoverished and helpless citizens.

Recent drought is only the latest manifestation of the political bankruptcy prevailing across Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena is allowed to preserve its hold over BMC (with a budget which exceeds that of most small states), CONgress keeps parts of Mumbai and the sugar belt, NCP keeps rest of Maharashtra with a  few bones thrown at BJP leadership to keep them in good humor.

More importantly, Sharad Pawar’s genius (or lack of political integrity) in presenting himself as the whore of Bombaylon, willing to align with any Delhi leadership which will preserve his fiefdom, ensures that no significant political challenge is ever presented by local or national leadership.

As Maharashtrians have come to this realization, a deep sense of despondency has crept into their engagement with the political establishment.  Saglech Chor – all are thieves - is a common refrain.

An electorate gripped by such disdain and hatred for politicians gives up on the democratic process, perpetuating the very political class they have come to detest.

Step in Raj Thackeray.

Given the very limited evidence presented by the 3 recent speeches, Raj Thackeray seems to have realized the following:

1.       The ‘other’, the ‘outsider’ can only become a boogeyman when voters have had experience with ‘negative’ effects of dealing with ‘outsiders’.  Vast parts of Maharashtra are untouched by ‘outsiders’.  Which limits its scope, restricting its efficacy as a voter catcher

2.       Across all regions, castes and religious segments, Maharashtra’s politician is now perceived as enemy No. 1.  This includes the BJP.  That alone can explain BJP’s decline across traditional strongholds like Vidharba

3.       Harping on outsiders, while pressing issues such as drought, lack of infrastructure, corruption are destroying Maharashtra, simply doesn’t cut it with most Maharashtrians.

a.       You can only blame outsiders for so much.  There are no outsiders in Vidharbha, so what explains the 12,000 farmer suicides and continuing decline in agriculture and overall economy

4.       Maharashtrian asmita is becoming a factor.  As Maharashtra watches NaMo transform a perennially drought ridden Gujarat into an agricultural juggernaut, Maharastrians are left wondering, why can’t we have a NaMo

5.       Raj Thackeray seems to have gauged the writing on the wall.  Development as a political issue has arrived

I believe this subtle change in strategy will benefit Raj Thackeray tremendously.  As predicted years ago, the departure of Balsaheb will accrue most of his constituency to Raj Thackeray.  He’s the rightful heir to the big Man’s political legacy.

In every speech Raj Thackeray has taken great care not to speak disparagingly about Maharashtra’s senior politicians.  Even when he criticizes them he uses proxies or first acknowledges their age and the respect it deserves.

By doing so, he’s subtly appealing to Maharashtra’s older generation which has remained immune to his appeal.  The Youth of Maharashtra is lining up behind him. 

Another key factor is his clear tilt toward the NDA.  In praising Nitish Kumar at his Solapur rally, he has tried to build bridges to ensure future induction into the NDA.

He’s working to a plan.

He has taken care not to directly target SharadP.  That would be suicidal.  Vast sections of Maharashtra where SharadP has helped create (or maintain) pockets of prosperity, SharadP still reigns supreme.  By targeting his nephew Ajit, Raj Thackeray has targeted SharadP by proxy.

SharadP is no babe in the woods.  He helped create Raj Thackeray by unleashing him 4 years prior to the 2010 elections.  He’s the grand master of this game.

Raj Thackeray better watch his back.  The Empire Always Strikes Back.