Making Sense of Afzal Guru's Hanging

The Politics behind Afzal Guru’s unexpected execution

There’s a broad agreement on one issue.  Afzal Guru was hanged with an eye on emerging political scenario.  This sudden appeal to nationalistic voters makes little sense.  When execution of a Pakistani terrorist like Ajmal Kasab feeds minority grievance mongering and backfires on secular parties, why the sudden alacrity in executing (an Indian) Afzal Guru?  Let’s try to make sense out of this.

1.       Sonia is sensing (and rightly so) a growing Hindu consolidation behind NaMo

2.       NaMo has usurped and monopolized two major electoral issues – Corruption and Development – ‘communal’ polarization remains Sonia last and only option

3.       With NaMo’s nomination now a mere formality, minority votes are certain to consolidate against him

a.       This cold calculation lies behind the abrupt hanging of Afzal Guru

4.       With minorities having no other option but the CONgress, preventing a counter Hindu consolidation has become Sonia’s top priority

5.       As diverse voting segments ranging from Sadhus to SRCC students line up behind NaMo, panic is setting in

6.       Afzal Guru’s abrupt hanging is a cynical ploy to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds

7.       It won’t work.

8.       The simmering anger that permeates across muslim ghettos is bound to rise

9.       Afzal Guru’s hanging will force a relook at accepted political equations: Muslims have only CONgress as a political option

a.       In areas where a Muslim party/candidate is a viable option (Assam, West Bengal), Muslim votes are likely to consolidate around that entity

b.      Here in lies an opportunity for BJP to upset CONgress’ apple cart by putting up a very strong Hindu candidate or make a calculated move to withdraw from the contest to allow counter Hindu consolidation around a viable Hindu candidate from a neutral political party like TMC in Bengal or TDP in Andhra

10.   Much as a panic stricken Rajiv Gandhi permitted Shilanyas at Ram Mandir to assuage growing Hindu anger over the Shah Bano fiasco, so has Sonia blundered by hanging Afzal Guru so close to the election

In trying to prevent a Hindu consolidation behind NaMo, Sonia has only fueled the NaMo juggernaut.