Next 24 Months

The Next 24 months.

December 20^th is shaping out to be the second biggest date in history of Independent India.  The widespread fear across India’s political spectrum is that once the smart, industrious Gujarati reelects NaMo as CM with an even bigger mandate, there will be no looking back.

Political momentum does not occur in a vacuum and once acquired there’s no guarantee that it can be sustained.  However, the NaMo juggernaut has been building for several years now.  Like a silent tsunami it threatens the evil edifice that CONgress represents.

December 20^th promises to finally unleash this revolution at an all India level.  Most importantly, it promises to weave together the plethora of Anti-CONgress, anti-Corruption threads into a single impregnable torrent with NaMo as its only, all powerful sootradhar.

Note:  CONgress with help from a pliant media will try to turn a NaMo led campaign into a Anti-Corruption Vs. Anti-communalism contest.  It wont work.  2014 will be fought on a single issue: Corruption.  With development being its natural sidekick.

Let us look at all the primary players and why their chances are best a self-delusion:

1.       Arvind Kejriwal

a.       Great creditials but no real organization to win even a handful of seats

2.       Nitish Kumar

a.       Could aspire to lead the 3^rd front, but if another satrap like Mamta or Maya or Jaya wins a similar pool of seats, BJP may support her to keep him out

3.       Jaya

a.       Anti-incumbency seems to be catching up, but DMK ‘s trouble are fresh in public memory and 35 seats could be a real possibility

b.      BJP infighting may enable her to become the preferred compromise candidate

4.       Maya

a.       Dalit-as-PM will be hard to resist if BJP gets less than 150 seats

b.      Even CONgress may not be averse to outside support as long as she extends the same keep-CBI-at-bay courtesy to the first family

c.    But backlash from non-dalits may hurt her chances.  Given that anti-corruption will be the single most important issue, her track record will hurt her chances
 

5.       Mamta

a.       Mamta is a wild, volatile card.  Fellow politicans detest unpredictable behavior (Ex: BalT, KalyanS).  Despite winning 30 seats, Mamta would be the least acceptable 3^rd front candidate as PM

6.       Sharad Pawar

a.       Even Sena/MNS would find it hard not to support SharadP if he can win 30 seats (a tall order in Maharastra).  Needless to say SharadP would have to part with vast reserves of his wealth to acquire his supporters

b.      Given his former title as the King of Corruption, supporting him would mean certain (short term) political death for the likes of Mamta/Jaya/Naveen.  He cannot win Delhi with support from the Marathi Manoos alone.  Chances are dim.

7.       Mulayam

a.       Mulayam can certainly bank on the Muslim vote, but the spotlight will expose massive degree of corruption his regime has/is perpetrating on UP

b.      A Yadav-as-PM may even help bring support from Laloo in Bihar but this support will be neutralized with other castes aligning against him

8.       Rahul Gandhi

a.       Eh…..case closed

9.       Sonia stooge

a.       A clean, submissive, pliant replacement to ManMohan is hard to find

b.      Intelligence seldom accompanies subservience.  MMS is a league all his own

c.       Dynasty will prefer NaMo as PM instead of risking deploying another Narsimha Rao

That brings us to NaMo

a.       As you have notice all the aspirants listed above are leaders with their own mass basses

b.      2014 would be a clear choice between voters who view corruption as the greatest menace and those viewing ‘communalism’ as the biggest threat to the future of India

c.       In the absence of any major riots in the past 5 years, threat of communalism has begun to recede in minds of the average non-muslim Indian voter

d.      Even the muslim voter will only vote against BJP so as to keep NaMo out, rather than out of any real fear of riots

e.      An agitated polity is looking for the following traits in its leader

                                                               i.      A proven track record of delivering a modicum of development

                                                             ii.      A squeaky clean record on corruption

1.       MMS offered this quality and voters were willing to forgive his passivity but that wont cut it in 2014

2.       Both personal integrity and the will to impose exacting standards of integrity across government bodies will be a fundamental prerequisite

                                                            iii.      Ability to manage inflation

                                                           iv.      Proven ability to fight corruption

                                                             v.      A record of preventing communal conflagration without pandering to vote bank politics

The NaMo Momentum – or shall we call it the NaMomentum, helps explain almost every significant political/media machination of the past 12 – 18 months.  Once the Godhra missile proved to be a damb squib,  NaMomentum was recognized and accepted by all aspirants to Delhi’s throne and has subconsciously taken political center stage.  Though India media will keep denying it and political ‘analysts’ will cite fringe factors to buttress NaMo’s unviability as PM candidate, everyone has accepted that there’s no other alternative. 

From NitishK’s adhikar yatra to Sonia’s reshuffle to the targeting of NitinG, every move is being conducted with the looming fear of a NaMo PMship.

NaMo gains nothing by dislodging a NitinG.  Its simply too early.  Infact, having a lame duck BJP president suits him just fine.  Much as the country has come to see him as the lord and savior so to will the Sangh and its proxies within the BJP.  The longer NitinG occupies the seat the better for NaMo.

The same cannot be said about D4.  Their only chance is to install themselves or one of their own as the next BJP President this December.

Clearly this stratgem will not suffice. But they are left with few options.  Much as NitishK is desperately trying to usurp Bihari Asmita so as to capture 30+ seats in Bihar, so too is D4 trying to counter BJP before NaMomentum pushes the throne of Delhi well beyond their reach.

Dream on suckers, NaMomentum is now unsurmountable.