As I have time and again emphasized, a victory for Congress is keeping BJP to 220 seats. And the best way to ensure this outcome is for the opposition to unite.
As I right this a Maha Gatbandhan (MGB) seems like a reach. But a MGB is not the only option for opposition unity.
What I fear most are several local alliances with Congress as the common binding force which gives up in states where it is weaker whilst retaining primacy in its strongholds.
Local contradictions (Mamta vs. Left, Mulayam vs. Maya, etc.) may force a multi-cornered fight in key states but if Congress can create enough local alliances it could bring BJP down to 220 seats.
What follows are a few ideas on how to preempt any major alliances for opposition unity.
1. Congress Mukt Bharat - As a Coalition Buster
Much as congress men and women have come to view the family as the only glue that will hold the party together, regional parties view the Congress the essential glue to piece and hold together an anti-BJP coalition. With a series of defeats Congress has presented, ambitious local satraps with a tantalizing option - What if Congress Mukt Bharat does come to fruition, can one of them stake claim to helm a new UPA?
Will a depleted Congress then support a regional leader for PM just to keep the BJP out?
BJP must promote this angle. The likes of Mamta, Maya and Mulayam and even Nitish would find such a scenario irresistible.
BJP's 'go-slow' strategy on 2g scam should be seen in this light. By putting opposition fears of legal retribution to rest, BJP has established the first precondition to creating this race for supremacy.
But this strategy can only work if it is carefully calibrated. In run up to 2004, a similarly depleted Congress was able to give up its claim to PMship which attracted eager PM contenders to the UPA umbrella and the rest is history.
The idea should be to prevent a coalition from taking shape in the first place.
Also, not all regional leaders will buy into this strategy. Some may see Congress as a necessary evil. But even if a few buy into this strategy it would put one more nail in that coalition coffin.
2. Exposing pro-Jihadi political fronts
From Owaisi to Akmal most purely Muslim political outfits seem to have a link to global jihadi networks. Either directly or indirectly through underworld or social connections.
Congress will need to tie up with these outfit so as to keep minority votes from getting divided. As a preemptive strike, expose these jihadi linkages and if UPA or its component parties try to tie up with them, use that as one strategy to consolidate Hindu votes.
3. Blasting Benamis
Go after Benami properties and announce elections in the middle of the effort - ensure that those owning legitimate properties arent targeted. This can be done by using Aadhar data to match against property ownership data. The process should start around Oct 2018 or earlier. This act of taking action against massive corruption will remain unfinished but the measure will garner massive support. Much like Demonitization, such measures get massive support from the voting segments.
A few prominent politicians will get ensnared in this web - and that would be the icing on the cake.
4. Corruption free Mai Baap
BJP has delivered on its biggest promise - Corruption free Mai Baap - a strategy that has worked wonderfully for BJP in Gujarat - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html
Homes for poor, bank accounts, Jan Dhan, direct deposit and several such programs are part of this Mai-Baap approach. An approach sans corruption.
In terms of policy it is no different from what Congress has offered but the differentiation lies in the corruption-free implementation BJP has delivered.
BJP must package this achievement with several features
a) Corruption free
b) Delivered by a Hindu ruler
c) Direct to people (i.e. eliminating the middle i.e. corrupt men)
d) 5 years of corruption free delivery Vs. 70 years of corruption ridden mess
To break the coalition BJP must do something they did in 2014 i.e. connect directly with the voter. So that a large section of (for example) Yadavs and Dalits vote for BJP/NaMo and not their respective caste brethren.
5. Compare to Congress but more importantly how does it compare to what the benchmark BJP set for itself
6. War on maoists is on the winning track
7. Play on the fear most Indians feel - if Congress comes back they will loot all the good work done in past 4 years
4.The Message: Foundation is ready, building is under construction
As I right this a Maha Gatbandhan (MGB) seems like a reach. But a MGB is not the only option for opposition unity.
What I fear most are several local alliances with Congress as the common binding force which gives up in states where it is weaker whilst retaining primacy in its strongholds.
Local contradictions (Mamta vs. Left, Mulayam vs. Maya, etc.) may force a multi-cornered fight in key states but if Congress can create enough local alliances it could bring BJP down to 220 seats.
What follows are a few ideas on how to preempt any major alliances for opposition unity.
1. Congress Mukt Bharat - As a Coalition Buster
Much as congress men and women have come to view the family as the only glue that will hold the party together, regional parties view the Congress the essential glue to piece and hold together an anti-BJP coalition. With a series of defeats Congress has presented, ambitious local satraps with a tantalizing option - What if Congress Mukt Bharat does come to fruition, can one of them stake claim to helm a new UPA?
Will a depleted Congress then support a regional leader for PM just to keep the BJP out?
BJP must promote this angle. The likes of Mamta, Maya and Mulayam and even Nitish would find such a scenario irresistible.
BJP's 'go-slow' strategy on 2g scam should be seen in this light. By putting opposition fears of legal retribution to rest, BJP has established the first precondition to creating this race for supremacy.
But this strategy can only work if it is carefully calibrated. In run up to 2004, a similarly depleted Congress was able to give up its claim to PMship which attracted eager PM contenders to the UPA umbrella and the rest is history.
The idea should be to prevent a coalition from taking shape in the first place.
Also, not all regional leaders will buy into this strategy. Some may see Congress as a necessary evil. But even if a few buy into this strategy it would put one more nail in that coalition coffin.
2. Exposing pro-Jihadi political fronts
From Owaisi to Akmal most purely Muslim political outfits seem to have a link to global jihadi networks. Either directly or indirectly through underworld or social connections.
Congress will need to tie up with these outfit so as to keep minority votes from getting divided. As a preemptive strike, expose these jihadi linkages and if UPA or its component parties try to tie up with them, use that as one strategy to consolidate Hindu votes.
3. Blasting Benamis
Go after Benami properties and announce elections in the middle of the effort - ensure that those owning legitimate properties arent targeted. This can be done by using Aadhar data to match against property ownership data. The process should start around Oct 2018 or earlier. This act of taking action against massive corruption will remain unfinished but the measure will garner massive support. Much like Demonitization, such measures get massive support from the voting segments.
A few prominent politicians will get ensnared in this web - and that would be the icing on the cake.
4. Corruption free Mai Baap
BJP has delivered on its biggest promise - Corruption free Mai Baap - a strategy that has worked wonderfully for BJP in Gujarat - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html
Homes for poor, bank accounts, Jan Dhan, direct deposit and several such programs are part of this Mai-Baap approach. An approach sans corruption.
In terms of policy it is no different from what Congress has offered but the differentiation lies in the corruption-free implementation BJP has delivered.
BJP must package this achievement with several features
a) Corruption free
b) Delivered by a Hindu ruler
c) Direct to people (i.e. eliminating the middle i.e. corrupt men)
d) 5 years of corruption free delivery Vs. 70 years of corruption ridden mess
To break the coalition BJP must do something they did in 2014 i.e. connect directly with the voter. So that a large section of (for example) Yadavs and Dalits vote for BJP/NaMo and not their respective caste brethren.
5. Compare to Congress but more importantly how does it compare to what the benchmark BJP set for itself
6. War on maoists is on the winning track
7. Play on the fear most Indians feel - if Congress comes back they will loot all the good work done in past 4 years
4.The Message: Foundation is ready, building is under construction
when will Modi finally go after the crooks? Unless we see some arrests (eg Karti Chidambaram, Nirav Modi, etc), BJP won't be able to push the anti-corruption card, esp after the 2G fiasco.
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