1. May 2019 is a 19 months away. What seemed like a mere formality is increasingly looking like an uphill task.
2. BJP has sensed it, hence the deeply flawed strategy to induct Narayan Rane into Maharastra cabinet
3. As explained in earlier posts, a major operation in POK is a real possibility. But war (no matter how successful) may not help politically. Do it too close to May 2019 and you're accused of using war as a political weapon. Use it too early and the effect gets dissipated.
4. A section of Middle class is turning against NaMo with a vengeance.
The loss of a dedicated vote bank may or may not be offset by new voters garnered via successful schemes such as Jan Dhan, Mudra, 24x7 Power.
BJP has remained sanguine, comforted by a nonexistent opposition and a still born Maha Gaat Bandhan (MGB)
But middle class anger has created an 'opposition' of sorts - NOTA - None of the Above. Even if it does not appear on the ballot, disgruntled BJP supporters are likely to express their opposition by not showing up on polling day.
5. Corruption as a political Issue is dead - BJP killed it
Induction of Narayan Rane and the complete lack of progress on investigations into major scams has neutralized (partially if not fully) corruption as a potent political issue.
Juxtaposed against DeMo where honest, hardworking (albeit tax evading) middle class Indians were forced to part with their hard earned wealth, the absence of any real action against Vadra and Co could prove particularly costly come election day.
6. The curse of a massive mandate
Indians havent reached a level of sophistication where they can differentiate between powers held by central, state and local govts. With a massive mandate they have super expectations from the super government they helped place in office.
And their super expectations are seemingly insatiable.
There are simply no excuses for BJP to not deliver on its promises.
7. Indian Myopia
Indians do not think beyond the narrow domains of their daily lives and their immediate circle of friends and family.
Take for instance the falling for state after Indian state to rising tide of Islamism. In any other country, states the size of West Bengal becoming Islamic strongholds would have engendered panic across the nation. Not in India. Indians as a group (there are a few exceptions) a just too myopic to see beyond their noses.
This mindset creates a major political hurdle. Great work done in India's hinterland - rural electrification for instance - will have no real impact on voter preferences in most cities.
Without visible, tangible change in their daily lives, voters will not acknowledge the stellar work done by the Modi government.
8. The rapid spread of the BJP
At first glance we should be celebrating BJP's rapid spread. It will only help in the years ahead but this success creates a problem in 2019. With BJP in absolute control of both central and state governments, there's simply no excuse left to no deliver on its promises.
The bridge collapse at Elphinstone is the canary in the coal mine. BJP governments must take corrective actions. All the fantastic work done in 3 years could get wiped out if BJP isnt reelected.
Here are a few ideas:
1. Focus on the basics
There are several 'low hanging fruits' at the urban level. De-congesting urban areas could yield immediate and tangible results.
Every city should have a satellite township which has easy access to the city. The resulting construction boom would trigger job and wealth creation.
2. Chart an Urban Indian's daily life
What can the govt do to improve this? Have both a short term and long term strategy - to be implemented in parallel. For examplee. No more hawkers on public streets could be part of the swach Bharat program. Hawkers could be identified and moved to specially built shopping zones. Say a once a week 'Mela' at major public grounds. With the long term goal being the construction of 'Hawker malls'.
This would have a visible, tangible and immediate impact on lives of Indians without hurting the livelihood of hawkers.
3. Education
What is preventing the govt. from permitting private players from entering the primary education sector in a very big way. If handled correctly, high quality institutions could be launched in a matter of months. The fringe benefits alone justify this strategy and it a great deal of work to get it done.
Example: Maharashtra govt announced the opening up of higher education sector to private players in the early 1980s. The first colleges launched were laughable. One college had a lab constructed next to a cowshed.
Today those same institutions are highly sophisticated institutions sort after by students from all across India and from foreign countries.
4. Medical Tourism
High costs are the primary challenge confronting the global health care industry. The govt. can launch dedicated SEZs focused on health care. The Jobs and Forex generation potential is unlimited.
The ancillary economic and political benefits are staggering.
Final piece of unsolicited (humble) advice: Dont let 'Perfect' be the enemy of 'Good'.
2. BJP has sensed it, hence the deeply flawed strategy to induct Narayan Rane into Maharastra cabinet
3. As explained in earlier posts, a major operation in POK is a real possibility. But war (no matter how successful) may not help politically. Do it too close to May 2019 and you're accused of using war as a political weapon. Use it too early and the effect gets dissipated.
4. A section of Middle class is turning against NaMo with a vengeance.
The loss of a dedicated vote bank may or may not be offset by new voters garnered via successful schemes such as Jan Dhan, Mudra, 24x7 Power.
BJP has remained sanguine, comforted by a nonexistent opposition and a still born Maha Gaat Bandhan (MGB)
But middle class anger has created an 'opposition' of sorts - NOTA - None of the Above. Even if it does not appear on the ballot, disgruntled BJP supporters are likely to express their opposition by not showing up on polling day.
5. Corruption as a political Issue is dead - BJP killed it
Induction of Narayan Rane and the complete lack of progress on investigations into major scams has neutralized (partially if not fully) corruption as a potent political issue.
Juxtaposed against DeMo where honest, hardworking (albeit tax evading) middle class Indians were forced to part with their hard earned wealth, the absence of any real action against Vadra and Co could prove particularly costly come election day.
6. The curse of a massive mandate
Indians havent reached a level of sophistication where they can differentiate between powers held by central, state and local govts. With a massive mandate they have super expectations from the super government they helped place in office.
And their super expectations are seemingly insatiable.
There are simply no excuses for BJP to not deliver on its promises.
7. Indian Myopia
Indians do not think beyond the narrow domains of their daily lives and their immediate circle of friends and family.
Take for instance the falling for state after Indian state to rising tide of Islamism. In any other country, states the size of West Bengal becoming Islamic strongholds would have engendered panic across the nation. Not in India. Indians as a group (there are a few exceptions) a just too myopic to see beyond their noses.
This mindset creates a major political hurdle. Great work done in India's hinterland - rural electrification for instance - will have no real impact on voter preferences in most cities.
Without visible, tangible change in their daily lives, voters will not acknowledge the stellar work done by the Modi government.
8. The rapid spread of the BJP
At first glance we should be celebrating BJP's rapid spread. It will only help in the years ahead but this success creates a problem in 2019. With BJP in absolute control of both central and state governments, there's simply no excuse left to no deliver on its promises.
The bridge collapse at Elphinstone is the canary in the coal mine. BJP governments must take corrective actions. All the fantastic work done in 3 years could get wiped out if BJP isnt reelected.
Here are a few ideas:
1. Focus on the basics
There are several 'low hanging fruits' at the urban level. De-congesting urban areas could yield immediate and tangible results.
Every city should have a satellite township which has easy access to the city. The resulting construction boom would trigger job and wealth creation.
2. Chart an Urban Indian's daily life
What can the govt do to improve this? Have both a short term and long term strategy - to be implemented in parallel. For examplee. No more hawkers on public streets could be part of the swach Bharat program. Hawkers could be identified and moved to specially built shopping zones. Say a once a week 'Mela' at major public grounds. With the long term goal being the construction of 'Hawker malls'.
This would have a visible, tangible and immediate impact on lives of Indians without hurting the livelihood of hawkers.
3. Education
What is preventing the govt. from permitting private players from entering the primary education sector in a very big way. If handled correctly, high quality institutions could be launched in a matter of months. The fringe benefits alone justify this strategy and it a great deal of work to get it done.
Example: Maharashtra govt announced the opening up of higher education sector to private players in the early 1980s. The first colleges launched were laughable. One college had a lab constructed next to a cowshed.
Today those same institutions are highly sophisticated institutions sort after by students from all across India and from foreign countries.
4. Medical Tourism
High costs are the primary challenge confronting the global health care industry. The govt. can launch dedicated SEZs focused on health care. The Jobs and Forex generation potential is unlimited.
The ancillary economic and political benefits are staggering.
Final piece of unsolicited (humble) advice: Dont let 'Perfect' be the enemy of 'Good'.
No comments:
Post a Comment