PM Modi's appeal rests on three pillars:
1. His Performance
2. His humble antecedants
and above all
3. His personal integrity
Different segments of India's electorate find each (or a combination of the 3) of these qualities appealing to varying degrees.
The stark contrast these qualities draw vis-a-vis his competitors provides an added potency to their appeal.
In a cesspool of degenerate pimps and prestitutes, who would sell their own mothers for power, PM Modi shines like a beacon of hope and represents the best of Indian culture of that much maligned Bharatiya Sanskriti.
As I have pointed out in earlier posts UPA's threshold of 'victory' is to hold BJP at or below 220 seats.
It is now accepted wisdom that only a united opposition can stop the Modi Juggernaut.
Two forces have come into play:
1. The conventional coalescing of political parties and
in the absence of political unity
2. Divide BJP's core Hindu vote
(More on #2 here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-plan-b-to-counter-pm-modi.html)
(there's a third more potent force, read on to learn what it is)
If the flirtation with Narayan Rane is any indication, it is the second factor which seems to have spooked BJP and Team Modi.
Purely on paper, Rane would represent good candidate to counter that rising tide of Maratha asmita. But in real electoral terms, that is where his usefulness ends. Here's why he should be kept out of the party or even the NDA:
1. Narayan Rane is a mini version of Chidambaram/Pawar/Sonia
2. He's not some Bihari politicians few have heard of outside his little burrow. He has made his bones in Mumbai
3. Though he's a Maratha, his base is coastal Maharashtra not exactly a Maratha Power base. A better alternative would be an older (so as not to hurt Fadnavis) Maratha leader from the sugar belt
4. His criminal past is well known and does not jive well with BJP's middle class constituency which is attracted to Modiji thanks to his clean, no nonsense track record
5. His sons and he have no filter. They will speak and act in a manner which will embarrass BJP and alienate a host of voters well outside Mumbai/Maharashtra
6. Narayan Rane flaunts his criminal wealth with such abandon that even Vadra looks up to him
Induction of Narayan Rane brings little in terms of incremental electoral gains. Further more his induction will do little to stem the tide of rising Maratha aspirations.
But here's the biggest danger of Narayan Rane like flirtations.
It will alienate BJP's core voters. Perhaps Team Shah think that by delivering on key promises they have won the voter segment i.e. the poor and lower castes. But these segments are driven by a survival instinct and could potentially shift loyalties if promised a bigger sop by the Gandhi parivar.
Exhibit A: BJP was forced to announce a string of loan waivers despite delivering bijli, saadak, paani in record time.
In the past I have recommended the 'efficient mai baap' strategy. And continue to support it. (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html)
But not at the cost of driving away BJP's core voters.
This segment now has an alternative to the BJP - which is the 3rd force I alluded to earlier in this piece.
And that is the option to stay home on election day.
Induction of Narayan Rane will encourage this segment to register a protest vote by refusing to vote.
It happened in 2004 and it could happen in 2019.
1. His Performance
2. His humble antecedants
and above all
3. His personal integrity
Different segments of India's electorate find each (or a combination of the 3) of these qualities appealing to varying degrees.
The stark contrast these qualities draw vis-a-vis his competitors provides an added potency to their appeal.
In a cesspool of degenerate pimps and prestitutes, who would sell their own mothers for power, PM Modi shines like a beacon of hope and represents the best of Indian culture of that much maligned Bharatiya Sanskriti.
As I have pointed out in earlier posts UPA's threshold of 'victory' is to hold BJP at or below 220 seats.
It is now accepted wisdom that only a united opposition can stop the Modi Juggernaut.
Two forces have come into play:
1. The conventional coalescing of political parties and
in the absence of political unity
2. Divide BJP's core Hindu vote
(More on #2 here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-plan-b-to-counter-pm-modi.html)
(there's a third more potent force, read on to learn what it is)
If the flirtation with Narayan Rane is any indication, it is the second factor which seems to have spooked BJP and Team Modi.
Purely on paper, Rane would represent good candidate to counter that rising tide of Maratha asmita. But in real electoral terms, that is where his usefulness ends. Here's why he should be kept out of the party or even the NDA:
1. Narayan Rane is a mini version of Chidambaram/Pawar/Sonia
2. He's not some Bihari politicians few have heard of outside his little burrow. He has made his bones in Mumbai
3. Though he's a Maratha, his base is coastal Maharashtra not exactly a Maratha Power base. A better alternative would be an older (so as not to hurt Fadnavis) Maratha leader from the sugar belt
4. His criminal past is well known and does not jive well with BJP's middle class constituency which is attracted to Modiji thanks to his clean, no nonsense track record
5. His sons and he have no filter. They will speak and act in a manner which will embarrass BJP and alienate a host of voters well outside Mumbai/Maharashtra
6. Narayan Rane flaunts his criminal wealth with such abandon that even Vadra looks up to him
Induction of Narayan Rane brings little in terms of incremental electoral gains. Further more his induction will do little to stem the tide of rising Maratha aspirations.
But here's the biggest danger of Narayan Rane like flirtations.
It will alienate BJP's core voters. Perhaps Team Shah think that by delivering on key promises they have won the voter segment i.e. the poor and lower castes. But these segments are driven by a survival instinct and could potentially shift loyalties if promised a bigger sop by the Gandhi parivar.
Exhibit A: BJP was forced to announce a string of loan waivers despite delivering bijli, saadak, paani in record time.
In the past I have recommended the 'efficient mai baap' strategy. And continue to support it. (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html)
But not at the cost of driving away BJP's core voters.
This segment now has an alternative to the BJP - which is the 3rd force I alluded to earlier in this piece.
And that is the option to stay home on election day.
Induction of Narayan Rane will encourage this segment to register a protest vote by refusing to vote.
It happened in 2004 and it could happen in 2019.
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