Balochistan: The Target is China

One week is a lifetime in politics, so goes the adage.  Between India and Pakistan it is 69 years.  Two deftly targeted statements by Indian PM have set off alarm bells in Islamabad.  By including Balochistan, Gilgit and POK within the Kashmir issue, PM Modi has altered conventional talking points on both sides of the border.

Most Indians (baring the usual sickulars) have welcomed his statement (and the signaled strategic shift) with a sense of awestruck elation.  "This should put Pakistan in its place" so goes the collective wisdom of both casual watchers of Indo-Pak.  

Needless to say Pakis have gotten their collective britches in a twist.  (Watching Paki media is perhaps the best entertainment you'll find you youtube)

Two years of almost uninterrupted international diplomacy is finally bearing fruit.  PM Modi is a highly disciplined politician.  That he has chosen the time and place to open a front on Balochistan suggests the following:

a) All preparations to follow-up on his statements have been made

b) He has laid the ground work and won allies across the globe to play this card

c) Pakistan's days as a geographically coherent entity may be numbered

But lost in the euphoria and noise is a key piece that most pundits seem to have missed.  

PM Modi's Baloch arrow attempts to kill several birds with one stone.  The biggest bird isnt Pakistan, it is China.

China's audacious sea grab across the South China Sea (SCS) is unparalleled in recent international history.  Even beyond such high profile theaters, China is following a policy of modern day colonization.  Chinese aid to impoverished African nations is a stark reminder of the Red Dragon's nefarious intentions.  

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/30/recolonizing-africa-a-modern-chinese-story.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18901656

But back to China's gamble in the South China Sea.  

To the Chinese its bold gambit makes sense.  A bulk of China's energy imports are routed through South China Sea.  So are a bulk of its exports and imports.  

Choking this 'narrow' inlet could severely deplete China's leverage in International affairs.  As economies of neighboring countries such as Vietnam (with whom China has recent history of armed conflict) and the Philippines improve, they could exert their own claims over resources and access provided by SCS.

China's funding of Pakistan CPEC is an attempt of create an alternate route for middle eastern energy assets to reach mainland China.  

A desperate Pakistan has walked itself into a trap by inviting China to build this corridor without recognizing the international fallout of becoming a defacto satellite state of the Chinese Communist Party.

The Balochistan gambit introduced by PM Modi should be seen in this light.  Clearly, it has the blessings and tacit support from DC.   

By openly supporting independence for Balochistan PM Modi has set out to achieve multiple objectives:

a) Bring Paki army's human rights violation into international focus

b) Offer a moral and legal umbrella to the Balochi freedom fighters to target CPEC

c) Permanently eliminate discussion of LOC as a default international border

d) Engender doubts in the mind of Chinese strategists vis-a-vis the sagacity of funding CPEC to the tune of $48 Billion

e) Tie up Paki military in an unending battle with well funded internal forces

f) Bring into question Pakistan's very legitimacy as a nation beyond its Punjab centric core

g) Scare away international investors

Even if the Indo-US partnership is unable to stymie China's quest for an supplementary route for energy resources, the Balochistan card will cause irreversible damage to Pakistan.  

We may witness another partition of Pakistan within 10 years. 

But for India to ensure this outcome, PM Modi must win a second term.