26/11 - That date is etched in the memory of every patriotic Indian. The ensuing anger seemed to be as much directed at Paki pigs as it was towards Indian rulers who had left India vulnerable on all sides.
That Congress and her allies would face the music in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections was a given. Even the usually smug presstitutes wore a downcast look across their collective faces.
Not only did Congress handily defeat the BJP across India, but what shocked native Mumbaikars such as myself was the fact that Congress-NCP was able to sweep Mumbai. Surely MNS cut into opposition votes but the truth remained that South Mumbai witnessed one of its lowest voting percentage (at 43%).
It was an important lesson in understanding the complex psyche of Indian voters. The nation reelected exactly the same bunch of crooks and anti-nationals.
Needless to say, that watching Bihar elect the convicted Char-Chor who destroyed Bihar over a 15 year reign wasnt a huge surprise. What was surprising was the magnitude of BJP's defeat.
As BJP supporters recover from Bihar's shocking results, it is important that both BJP and its supporters draw the right conclusions. For only the right insights will lead to effective solutions.
Followers of PM Modi have come up with a host of reasons to explain the Bihar debacle. Foreign travel, Soot-Boot, ignoring Social media supporters, cow politics, Dadri, Award Wapsi, arrogance, lack of progress on black money, etc.
But none of these explain the rout. This is not to suggest that these werent contributing factors. They were but not to the extent where they would dictate electoral outcomes.
As it happened in Delhi so in Bihar, BJP's vote share remained close to what it polled in previous battles at the hustings. What changed was opposition unity.
Opposition unity is the 'Elephant in the Room'.
(Note: In run up to 2004, it was a despondent Sonia who gave up her smug arrogance to reach out to opposition stalwarts. A terribly weakened Congress eschewed 'ekla chalo re' and forged a solid UPA to defeat BJP)
However, opposition too gives us only a partial explanation for the massive mandate against the BJP. To properly understand BJP's defeat one must first delve into the psyche of the much maligned Bihari voter.
You may be surprised to find that he isnt too different from the Indian voter.
So what drives the typical Indian Voter.
Self defeating Intra-Indian Competitiveness:
According to an old Harvard tale, a graduating class of MBAs were asked to select one of two options.
Option A: You get a job that pays $90K but your friend gets one that pays $100K
Option B: You get a job that pays $70K but your friend gets one that pays $60K
A startling 67% selected Option B.
Though this strange phenomenon is a common human condition, it is greatly amplified among Indians. Surely if such a survey was conducted on graduating IIT or IIM graduates a 100% would select option B.
All kidding aside, caste, regional, communal and linguistic differences have greatly amplified this 'crabs in a well' trait among Indians. Witness how young Dalit men are beaten up for celebrating life events (weddings, birthdays, etc.) in a socially ostentatious manner.
Arun Shourie narrated an interesting anecdote in one of his speeches two years ago. Annie Beasant was asked what differences she noticed between Irish, Scottish and Indian freedom fighters. Her response: "Indians cannot work together".
Winston Churchill came to a similar conclusion. I have personally noticed this dynamic play out within Indian Diaspora in America. When two Indians come from different states they quarrel over which is better, when they come from same State, they quarrel over different regions within that state, when they come from same region of the state it usually gets down to caste, and so on.
Given these divisions, Hindu unity is a mirage. It occasionally emerges to create an impact but that emergence is ephemeral at best.
It shouldnt surprise readers of this blog that caste allegiance is far stronger than allegiance to a common Hindu identity.
A vast section of upper caste Hindus much rather preserve the caste system than dilute it to yield Hindu unity.
India lacks a Hindu party because India lacks a Hindu Vote bank.
Laloo, Mulayam, Maya, etc. are products of this caste dynamic. Even if these leaders are barred from participating in elections, others will emerge to fill the vacuum.
If a Laloo is swept back to power, the reasons behind this are simple. He represents a giant 'F You'' to non-Yadavs. Much as electing a corrupt Mayawati was a giant 'F You' to non-Dalits.
These groups will continue voting their caste no matter what development PM Modi brings to their door step.
If Hindu Mumbaikars couldnt vote to punish facilitators of 26/11 attacks why are we surprised that Biharis have voted their respective castes.
The question then arises how do we solve this riddle. The opposition has found PM Modi's achilles heel i.e. Opposition Unity. We must find a way around it.
Fortunately we have the time to take corrective action.
BJP may be tempted to take a conventional political route to address this challenge. But molly-coddling
Solution: Dilute hold of caste loyalties by bribing specific economically backward groups and replace caste with class.
It is impossible to erode an entrenched caste system that has prevailed for over 2000 years. Instead bring economically weak sections from each caste under one umbrella and design programs that benefit them within 18 months.
Indians demand a two fold response from PM Modi
a) Give us tangible, visible returns on our political investments
b) Punish those who have looted our wealth
a) Tangible Results: Direct Action i.e. Garib Kalyan Mela
PM Modi's heart is in the right place. It is necessary condition for winning 2019 but not a sufficient condition.
Here's how NDA's development strategy works:
Clean up the system > Create a policy driven state and build vital infrastructure plus skilled workforce to attract investors > Investors will then set up manufacturing and service industries > which in turn will create jobs > Raising income levels of poor Indians > will raise their standard of living turning them into enthusiastic voters.
This is classic trickle-down-economics. Even in highly efficient economies with limited friction, trickle down economics takes years to bear fruit. In an highly inefficient, moth ridden Indian economy, benefits of economic expansions will take a decade to reach the intended recipients.
This is precisely what happened with ABV's NDA 1. It was UPA 1 which reaped the political benefits of a robust economy which was bequeathed to Sonia thanks to ABV's exceptional work.
ABV received nothing but scorn from the marginalized (albeit dedicated Indian Voter).
For instance BJP-Sena govt. built the Mumbai-Pune expressway which gave a massive boost to a number of industries along the corridor. It had no discernible impact on voting patterns across Maharashtra.
PM Modi's policies are driving him into a similar cul-de-sac. What is needed is a massive direct-action initiatives a la Gujarat's 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.
This is not to suggest that war effort launched on Infrastructure development should be slowed or stopped.
The poor, helpless Indian wonders how a Vijay Mallya can be let off despite squeezing banks to the tune of 1000s of crores but the govt. drags her feet when it comes to handing out benefits to defense personnel and the poor.
The two tracks arent mutually exclusive. If worked in tandem they will help BJP make the case that BJP is pro-poor.
More ideas on this line of attack coming up in future posts.
b) Punish the Looters
This part will need to be handled deftly. Sonia will react and react aggressively. Besides as argued in previous posts, timing of launching this attack is of as much (if not more) important as the action itself.
The previous timeline of targeting Sonia around mid-2017 is still applicable. But delaying it for too long would render the PM open to accusations of political vendetta.
Instead, BJP should begin striking at Sonia and her larger secular parivar by launching selective leaks. Put Sonia on the back foot by forcing her to defend the Kripa Shankar Singhs and Diggy Rajas.
This will also keep Sonia's media occupied with find ways to protect her. Which would give BJP more leg room to focus on governance issues.
Every month (or quarter) BJP should force a new scandal on the Congress. If BJP wants to forgo use of Govt. entities, 'non-state' actors such as Dr. Swamy can be furnished with the requisite ammunition to launch the attacks.
Such public spectacles will reassure the public at large that PM Modi is working toward avenging Sonia's decade long looting spree.
PM Modi cannot address local harassment meted out by cops and babus to India's helpless poor. But if he can take down the Sonias and Sharads, he sends a message to Indians on the lowest rung - "The PM is with you, I'm punishing those that treat you like animals"
That Congress and her allies would face the music in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections was a given. Even the usually smug presstitutes wore a downcast look across their collective faces.
Not only did Congress handily defeat the BJP across India, but what shocked native Mumbaikars such as myself was the fact that Congress-NCP was able to sweep Mumbai. Surely MNS cut into opposition votes but the truth remained that South Mumbai witnessed one of its lowest voting percentage (at 43%).
It was an important lesson in understanding the complex psyche of Indian voters. The nation reelected exactly the same bunch of crooks and anti-nationals.
Needless to say, that watching Bihar elect the convicted Char-Chor who destroyed Bihar over a 15 year reign wasnt a huge surprise. What was surprising was the magnitude of BJP's defeat.
As BJP supporters recover from Bihar's shocking results, it is important that both BJP and its supporters draw the right conclusions. For only the right insights will lead to effective solutions.
Followers of PM Modi have come up with a host of reasons to explain the Bihar debacle. Foreign travel, Soot-Boot, ignoring Social media supporters, cow politics, Dadri, Award Wapsi, arrogance, lack of progress on black money, etc.
But none of these explain the rout. This is not to suggest that these werent contributing factors. They were but not to the extent where they would dictate electoral outcomes.
As it happened in Delhi so in Bihar, BJP's vote share remained close to what it polled in previous battles at the hustings. What changed was opposition unity.
Opposition unity is the 'Elephant in the Room'.
(Note: In run up to 2004, it was a despondent Sonia who gave up her smug arrogance to reach out to opposition stalwarts. A terribly weakened Congress eschewed 'ekla chalo re' and forged a solid UPA to defeat BJP)
However, opposition too gives us only a partial explanation for the massive mandate against the BJP. To properly understand BJP's defeat one must first delve into the psyche of the much maligned Bihari voter.
You may be surprised to find that he isnt too different from the Indian voter.
So what drives the typical Indian Voter.
Self defeating Intra-Indian Competitiveness:
According to an old Harvard tale, a graduating class of MBAs were asked to select one of two options.
Option A: You get a job that pays $90K but your friend gets one that pays $100K
Option B: You get a job that pays $70K but your friend gets one that pays $60K
A startling 67% selected Option B.
Though this strange phenomenon is a common human condition, it is greatly amplified among Indians. Surely if such a survey was conducted on graduating IIT or IIM graduates a 100% would select option B.
All kidding aside, caste, regional, communal and linguistic differences have greatly amplified this 'crabs in a well' trait among Indians. Witness how young Dalit men are beaten up for celebrating life events (weddings, birthdays, etc.) in a socially ostentatious manner.
Arun Shourie narrated an interesting anecdote in one of his speeches two years ago. Annie Beasant was asked what differences she noticed between Irish, Scottish and Indian freedom fighters. Her response: "Indians cannot work together".
Winston Churchill came to a similar conclusion. I have personally noticed this dynamic play out within Indian Diaspora in America. When two Indians come from different states they quarrel over which is better, when they come from same State, they quarrel over different regions within that state, when they come from same region of the state it usually gets down to caste, and so on.
Given these divisions, Hindu unity is a mirage. It occasionally emerges to create an impact but that emergence is ephemeral at best.
It shouldnt surprise readers of this blog that caste allegiance is far stronger than allegiance to a common Hindu identity.
A vast section of upper caste Hindus much rather preserve the caste system than dilute it to yield Hindu unity.
India lacks a Hindu party because India lacks a Hindu Vote bank.
Laloo, Mulayam, Maya, etc. are products of this caste dynamic. Even if these leaders are barred from participating in elections, others will emerge to fill the vacuum.
If a Laloo is swept back to power, the reasons behind this are simple. He represents a giant 'F You'' to non-Yadavs. Much as electing a corrupt Mayawati was a giant 'F You' to non-Dalits.
These groups will continue voting their caste no matter what development PM Modi brings to their door step.
If Hindu Mumbaikars couldnt vote to punish facilitators of 26/11 attacks why are we surprised that Biharis have voted their respective castes.
The question then arises how do we solve this riddle. The opposition has found PM Modi's achilles heel i.e. Opposition Unity. We must find a way around it.
Fortunately we have the time to take corrective action.
BJP may be tempted to take a conventional political route to address this challenge. But molly-coddling
Solution: Dilute hold of caste loyalties by bribing specific economically backward groups and replace caste with class.
It is impossible to erode an entrenched caste system that has prevailed for over 2000 years. Instead bring economically weak sections from each caste under one umbrella and design programs that benefit them within 18 months.
Indians demand a two fold response from PM Modi
a) Give us tangible, visible returns on our political investments
b) Punish those who have looted our wealth
a) Tangible Results: Direct Action i.e. Garib Kalyan Mela
PM Modi's heart is in the right place. It is necessary condition for winning 2019 but not a sufficient condition.
Here's how NDA's development strategy works:
Clean up the system > Create a policy driven state and build vital infrastructure plus skilled workforce to attract investors > Investors will then set up manufacturing and service industries > which in turn will create jobs > Raising income levels of poor Indians > will raise their standard of living turning them into enthusiastic voters.
This is classic trickle-down-economics. Even in highly efficient economies with limited friction, trickle down economics takes years to bear fruit. In an highly inefficient, moth ridden Indian economy, benefits of economic expansions will take a decade to reach the intended recipients.
This is precisely what happened with ABV's NDA 1. It was UPA 1 which reaped the political benefits of a robust economy which was bequeathed to Sonia thanks to ABV's exceptional work.
ABV received nothing but scorn from the marginalized (albeit dedicated Indian Voter).
For instance BJP-Sena govt. built the Mumbai-Pune expressway which gave a massive boost to a number of industries along the corridor. It had no discernible impact on voting patterns across Maharashtra.
PM Modi's policies are driving him into a similar cul-de-sac. What is needed is a massive direct-action initiatives a la Gujarat's 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.
This is not to suggest that war effort launched on Infrastructure development should be slowed or stopped.
The poor, helpless Indian wonders how a Vijay Mallya can be let off despite squeezing banks to the tune of 1000s of crores but the govt. drags her feet when it comes to handing out benefits to defense personnel and the poor.
The two tracks arent mutually exclusive. If worked in tandem they will help BJP make the case that BJP is pro-poor.
More ideas on this line of attack coming up in future posts.
b) Punish the Looters
This part will need to be handled deftly. Sonia will react and react aggressively. Besides as argued in previous posts, timing of launching this attack is of as much (if not more) important as the action itself.
The previous timeline of targeting Sonia around mid-2017 is still applicable. But delaying it for too long would render the PM open to accusations of political vendetta.
Instead, BJP should begin striking at Sonia and her larger secular parivar by launching selective leaks. Put Sonia on the back foot by forcing her to defend the Kripa Shankar Singhs and Diggy Rajas.
This will also keep Sonia's media occupied with find ways to protect her. Which would give BJP more leg room to focus on governance issues.
Every month (or quarter) BJP should force a new scandal on the Congress. If BJP wants to forgo use of Govt. entities, 'non-state' actors such as Dr. Swamy can be furnished with the requisite ammunition to launch the attacks.
Such public spectacles will reassure the public at large that PM Modi is working toward avenging Sonia's decade long looting spree.
PM Modi cannot address local harassment meted out by cops and babus to India's helpless poor. But if he can take down the Sonias and Sharads, he sends a message to Indians on the lowest rung - "The PM is with you, I'm punishing those that treat you like animals"
The great India story (1991 to 2008) & (2013 to 2015) is all but over. It will take many decades of excruciating failures both in
ReplyDeletelegislature and judiciary to have some sense trickle down to the large
electoral masses. I am a curious watcher of post 1991 economic liberalisation & my experience says that the post 2000 generation will be beaten senseless by the present system once they cross their 20’s.
There will be so much chaos in the judiciary; the present condition will look like the last of a golden era. You can imagine if present phase can be considered golden; all hell is going to
break loose then. No sane person can expect consistent judgements or worse even a semblance of justice from the Judiciary then.
The legislature by that time will
be playing harmonica on the streets to relive itself of the stress of failures and burden of public disappointments!
We no longer have a functional parliament, regardless of the numbers in the house. This is not because of just
obstructionism but also by design and decay. The ruling party has no interest in getting the parliament to function because they actually do not have any reformative agenda in the quantity needed fill the 5 year tenure.
For example, GST, Land, Labour & Coal/Spectrum auction on a normal/ideal course should be not more than 2 session of palrliament, i.e. 6 months. When this is so, what will be the agenda
for next 4.5 years?
With all this being a functional reality,
Judiciary is just as sick as the rest of the establishments. Remember judges do
not fall from the sky, but are born with the same 2 eyes/ears and in the same damned environment.
I say this out loud to all we need an existential crisis as a nation to
come out this morass.
As of now, the 18 month run of NaMo Govt is very much clean but performance = mediocre & apart from present BJP/NDA ruled states, BJP has no plausible way of winning anymore extra till after 2019. Infact, Punjab is a gone case and Gujarat is increasingly looking difficult.
ReplyDelete1) So NaMo instead of state elections & Foreign policy, should concentrate on domestic economy. Get the economy running through executive actions & finance bills.
2) Ask his ministers to take care of their respective depts.
3) Bombard the Indian media and public with ur own narrative. Hype up all the good things that u do & its consequent positive results. Initiate/Nurture a strong and massive RW ecosystem on a war footing.
4) drop non performing ministers and spokesperson.
5) Give Amit Shah some time to recover now and let him do his job in the shadow. Let BJP have a new President till 2018. Out of sight is out of mind, one could do miracles when there isn’t much glare of the enemy, For example UP 2014 – 75 MP.
6) Please come up with a massive populist social scheme which gives out doles to poor, lower class, lower middle and middle class. This might not be financially sound, but losing elections is not politically sound either.
7) Pamper all constituencies that voted for u in 2014, monetary benefits are the easiest way to build traction. once again might be economically bad, so be it, as said before, loosing elections is bad too.
implement the above and watch how things fall in place! 2019 victory will be possible then, otherwise u will be a 1 term PM. In 2nd term u can pretty much put all ur political capital to do what is politically incorrect and bitter but necessary & u can use it as ur last term.
Among thousands of RW warriors on SM.. only u got it right it seems....
ReplyDeleteUnited oposition...
Among thousands of RW warriors on SM.. only u got it right it seems....
ReplyDeleteUnited oposition...