Did the title of this post get your attention.
A speculative piece from Gulf News doing the rounds last week has made a similar claim. But the arguments presented there are a bit off the mark.
Here's why I think Kejriwal was allowed to win, in fact encouraged to win.
In its eagerness to resurrect Kejriwal, BJP may have gone over board. But the damage done from letting Kejriwal win 67 against 40 odd seats is minimal.
The first indication that something machiavellian was afoot came from the PM himself. In his first election rally, PM Modi did something he hasnt done since he took office in 2001. He made a direct attack on an opponent who was several notches below him in the pecking order. One of MSM's biggest complaints in successive Gujarat elections was that the CM always attacked "Sonia ben" or "Maun Mohan Singh".
Not once did he attack his most virulent local critics. Bharatsinh Solanki, Keshubhai Patel, Nitish Kumar, all launched direct, vicious attacks on him. But the man maintained his composure. Such is his self discipline that even a 12 year long, relentless, no-holds-barred attack could not provoke him into saying anything directly against any individuals other than the main targets - Sonia ben and MMS.
So when he did the complete opposite and attacked Kejriwal as a Naxalwadi, clearly something wasnt adding up. BJP wanted to elevate Kejriwal's profile.
a) to help him win Delhi and
b) to become a potential national contender.
a) to help him win Delhi and
b) to become a potential national contender.
A second indication came from Swami Ramdev. In an interview few days after this rally, he ridiculed Kejriwal and his 49 days of promises. But then quickly wished him well "as the country needed a strong opposition".
Note: Swami Ramdev did not campaign in this election. Given his massive following across north India, he would have been a perfect weapon to unleash against a 'Naxal', a 'batla-house-fake-encounter', Jihad loving Kejriwal.
Neither BJP nor its ancillary organizations raised key pain points - Plebiscite in Kashmir, Forgive Kasab, etc.
They did include some of these issues in the final 10 questions they asked Kejriwal.....but only on the day before voting!
Candidate selection, which has been Amit Bhai's secret sauce was completely flawed with rank outsiders given tickets where as hardworking, well-liked, proven local candidates were sidelined.
But what would be the rationale behind such an audacious move? How would BJP benefit from this?
1. Political Vacuum
As BJP went from strength to strength in the early 90s, LKA famously offered his political insight "BJP's pace of expansion wasnt matching CONgress' pace of decline" (or something to that effect)
A north-India restricted BJP was unable to wipe out the Congress or fill it with a weaker alternative.
As Congress hit rock bottom, Sonia reversed course. She swallowed her pride and reached out to potential alliance partners. More importantly she offered a larger share of the pie.
A receding Congress circa 2003, may be just as dangerous as a comatose Congress circa 2018.
Such a scenario would get Priyanka to reach out to potential alliance Partners and form a formidable alliance
BJP needs a divide opposition.
BJP needs a divide opposition.
2. Index of Opposition Unity
I believe defeat in post-May 2014, bye elections prompted a rethink in NaMo's core team. That staggering (2-10) defeat across Bihar and UP could only be explained by a unified opposition sinking its difference to keep BJP out of power.
A similar dynamic is likely to play out in run up to 2019. A unified caste-minority segment will result in a massive blow to the BJP.
Even a hung Parliament would destroy PM Modi's ability to govern and implement his agenda.
And Delhi has proved this theory. The opposition is ready to unite behind anyone strong enough to defeat BJP.
And this is where a rising Kejriwal comes in.
By making Kejriwal a player in national politics, Team NaMo has ensured that the opposition remains divided.
Kejriwal is caught between a rock and a political hard place. If he aligns with the likes of Mulayam or Laloo he forfeits his USP. If he rides alone, he doesnt have the time and resources to expand enough to become a real contender by 2019. Perhaps by 2024 but that is loooong 10 years away.
Kejriwal will need massive resources to build a 'clean' organization across the country.
His two post-victory decisions suggests he that he has learnt his lessons and is aware of these limitations.
AAP wont fight any state level elections 2015, thus allowing a unified anti-BJP alliance to corner all opposition votes in Bihar.
Secondly, by making Sisodia his deputy CM, Kejriwal can be free to gallivant around the country to build a anti-BJP alternative.
If Kejriwal is able to siphon off even 10 % of minority votes in key states, the Delhi 'defeat' would have paid off for BJP
3. Neutralizing AAP
BJP was the up and coming party till the early nineties. That is when it got elected in 4 major states across north India. The stellar performance of those 4 govt. is now a fond memory.
But with political power came influence-peddling and political dalals and corruption.
Kejriwal's AAP is even more hamstrung in this department. Not only has it promised the moon, people with conflicting interests are expecting Kejriwal to deliver on those pie-in-the-sky commitments.
Example:
If Auto Rickshaw drivers are given a free hand on what they charge customers and how they are tracked, a large section of Delhi's middle class will suffer. If AAP tightens the screws on Auto drivers, the backlash will be swift and equally vicious.
Delivering on AAP's promises will need massive capital outlays. For a state that has very little in terms of revenue generating industries, this would be close to impossible.
Besides, Kejriwal has promised baniyas there wont be any raids on them to collect taxes.
Without tax revenues, Kejriwal will have to resort to blaming the central govt. for not giving him what is his 'right'.
People expect performance not excuses.
With each passing day, the gap between performance and promises will grow wider and little by little AAP will lose its sheen.
If by some great miracle he does manage to hold his ground and perform on key parameters, he becomes a challenge to every left-of-center party across urban India.
Heads BJP wins, Tails Sickulars lose.
4. Keep AAP from being a permanent opposition
AAP in govt, exposes its many short comings. Lack of experience, agitational mindset, unrealistic expectations, using a hammer as weapon of choice, etc.
In opposition AAP would have been a gunslinger for hire, constantly reminding voters how BJP was not delivering on its promises.
AAP is better in office i.e. under the microscope to busy defending itself to launch a serious attack on BJP
5. A benchmark to show Indians how difficult it is to deliver on promises
With AAP in govt, and failing to deliver on key commitments (they have already gone back on promise of free WIFI), people will see the Modi Govt in a new light.
The constant chant of 'where are ache din' will become muted with every passing day. Moreover people will come to appreciate the stellar work BJP is doing on multiple fronts.
6. Cleaning up Delhi BJP
BJP's Delhi unit was a mini incarnation of its national leadership circa 2012. Bickering, backstabbing, self-absorbed leadership with a deeply ingrained sense of political self entitlement.
Even if BJP had tried to win this election they would have found a way to screw things up, ensuring that AAP remains a pain in the neck.
A butt whooping 3-67 defeat, gives Team NaMo just the hand they needed to jettison the Goels and Upadhyas and bring in a new hungry leadership.
All in all, this election 'defeat' will pay rich dividends in the years to come.
It is great to see that Team NaMo has already started preparing for 2019.
And Delhi has proved this theory. The opposition is ready to unite behind anyone strong enough to defeat BJP.
And this is where a rising Kejriwal comes in.
By making Kejriwal a player in national politics, Team NaMo has ensured that the opposition remains divided.
Kejriwal is caught between a rock and a political hard place. If he aligns with the likes of Mulayam or Laloo he forfeits his USP. If he rides alone, he doesnt have the time and resources to expand enough to become a real contender by 2019. Perhaps by 2024 but that is loooong 10 years away.
Kejriwal will need massive resources to build a 'clean' organization across the country.
His two post-victory decisions suggests he that he has learnt his lessons and is aware of these limitations.
AAP wont fight any state level elections 2015, thus allowing a unified anti-BJP alliance to corner all opposition votes in Bihar.
Secondly, by making Sisodia his deputy CM, Kejriwal can be free to gallivant around the country to build a anti-BJP alternative.
If Kejriwal is able to siphon off even 10 % of minority votes in key states, the Delhi 'defeat' would have paid off for BJP
3. Neutralizing AAP
BJP was the up and coming party till the early nineties. That is when it got elected in 4 major states across north India. The stellar performance of those 4 govt. is now a fond memory.
But with political power came influence-peddling and political dalals and corruption.
Kejriwal's AAP is even more hamstrung in this department. Not only has it promised the moon, people with conflicting interests are expecting Kejriwal to deliver on those pie-in-the-sky commitments.
Example:
If Auto Rickshaw drivers are given a free hand on what they charge customers and how they are tracked, a large section of Delhi's middle class will suffer. If AAP tightens the screws on Auto drivers, the backlash will be swift and equally vicious.
Delivering on AAP's promises will need massive capital outlays. For a state that has very little in terms of revenue generating industries, this would be close to impossible.
Besides, Kejriwal has promised baniyas there wont be any raids on them to collect taxes.
Without tax revenues, Kejriwal will have to resort to blaming the central govt. for not giving him what is his 'right'.
People expect performance not excuses.
With each passing day, the gap between performance and promises will grow wider and little by little AAP will lose its sheen.
If by some great miracle he does manage to hold his ground and perform on key parameters, he becomes a challenge to every left-of-center party across urban India.
Heads BJP wins, Tails Sickulars lose.
4. Keep AAP from being a permanent opposition
AAP in govt, exposes its many short comings. Lack of experience, agitational mindset, unrealistic expectations, using a hammer as weapon of choice, etc.
In opposition AAP would have been a gunslinger for hire, constantly reminding voters how BJP was not delivering on its promises.
AAP is better in office i.e. under the microscope to busy defending itself to launch a serious attack on BJP
5. A benchmark to show Indians how difficult it is to deliver on promises
With AAP in govt, and failing to deliver on key commitments (they have already gone back on promise of free WIFI), people will see the Modi Govt in a new light.
The constant chant of 'where are ache din' will become muted with every passing day. Moreover people will come to appreciate the stellar work BJP is doing on multiple fronts.
6. Cleaning up Delhi BJP
BJP's Delhi unit was a mini incarnation of its national leadership circa 2012. Bickering, backstabbing, self-absorbed leadership with a deeply ingrained sense of political self entitlement.
Even if BJP had tried to win this election they would have found a way to screw things up, ensuring that AAP remains a pain in the neck.
A butt whooping 3-67 defeat, gives Team NaMo just the hand they needed to jettison the Goels and Upadhyas and bring in a new hungry leadership.
All in all, this election 'defeat' will pay rich dividends in the years to come.
It is great to see that Team NaMo has already started preparing for 2019.
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