The PM’s Dilemma

It is said that the ability to delay gratification is a mark of maturity and equanimity.  Though it was fairly easy to predict that the army of Internet Hindus would need a new war once 2014 was won, none could have predicted the deep sense of despondency and disappointment which has crept into our ranks.

Even more surprising is the alacrity with which this fierce backlash has spread across PM NaMo’s core constituency.

What follows is an attempt to defend the PM and explain the constraints that have informed his many decisions.

One hopes that these explanations would trigger an internal dialog and prevent the centrifugal forces threatening to turn some Internet Hindus into permanent rebels.

1. Rehabilitation of D4

BJP wasn’t born in 2001 with NaMo’s takeover of Gujarat.  Apart from its formal birth, BJP’s antecedents inextricably link it to the larger Sangh parivar.  By association the PM is straddled with cumulative sins and virtues of this larger Sangh Ummah.  But this is a fair bargain.  If he benefits from Sangh’s foot soldiers, its vast and entrenched organization in every nook and corner of India, he must bear the suboptimal behavior of some of its associates.

Any attempt to divorce himself from the parivar will backfire in a big way.  No one understands this better than the man himself.  And so does D4.  D4 has formed the core of BJP’s decision making apparatus for over 2 decades now.  They know where the bodies are buried and skeletons are stored.  Heck, it’s possible they are the ones who buried said bodies and skeletons in the first place.

Even more damaging is the well-oiled ecosystem D4 has cultivated over their tenure in the corridors of power.  An ecosystem that extends from the Judiciary to the media, from business tycoons to middle men of every stripe.

No doubt Congress and the first family are an integral part of this ecosystem and both D4 and the family look out for each other.  But as we will see, confronting much less defeating such a formidable adversary is fraught with incalculable risk for a fledgling government.  Even for as formidable a political warrior as the PM.

In coopting D4, NaMo is following the sage advice of one Vito Corleone “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”

D4 stripped of power could become a nuisance or worst an alternate power center within the NDA.  D4 could unleash a-scandal-a-day scenario which in turn could feed a TRP hungry, anti-NaMo media and turn the new government into a pathetic political circus.  If minor incidents such as anti-Sania statements of a small regional BJP leader can be fill airwaves for 2 days, imagine what real scandals could mean for the PM.

A hopeless D4 could commit hara-kiri and take the new govt. to the gallows with it.

Much as Obama harnessed the Clinton network by coopting Hillary as Secretary of Defense, the PM has countered D4 by giving them a place in the government which ensures a respectable presence in the eyes of the public.  Scratch the surface though and you can see that PM Narendra Modi has left them with little discretionary powers.  From the babus they select to key decisions, all are controlled by the all-powerful PMO.  The non-political godfathers of this ecosystem aka Mota Saheb, Chotta Saheb, etc. have all endured the taste of an unyielding PMO.

As we shall see, rehabilitation of D4 is at best a stop-gap measure with little wiggle room conceded.

Lastly, as Amit Shah stated in his recent profile in India Today cover story “He’s only relevant to NaMo as long as he can deliver”.  If as close an acolyte as Mr. Shah is dispensable, where does that leave known frenemies like D4.  Given time, Mr. Modi will fix them too.  Patience my fellow Internet Hindus. Patience.

1. White paper on a gutted Indian economy

Some Right wingers have bemoaned lack of a white paper to set a benchmark for the new NDA government.  Such a white paper would have highlighted the abysmal state of Indian Economy.  It would further ensure a valid excuse for BJP to use in the run up to the 2019 elections, much as Obama had done in 2012 by (rightly) blaming Bush for America’s economic woes.

But there’s a vital difference between India and America.  If the PM of India tells the world that India’s economy is in dire straits, the costs would be devastating.  Rising borrowing costs would hurt the already precarious state of Government’s balance sheet. Higher interest rates would have a negative impact on the aam middle class aadmi – NaMo’s core constituency.  A weakened Rupee would raise import costs, further fueling inflation.

 Granted that there’s some merit in this (white paper) strategy, but when weighed against associated economic costs, the PM has done the right thing by allowing his ministers to selectively highlight sorry state of India’s economy, eschewing the temptation to publicly blame UPA for India economy’s pathetic state.

Moreover, people already know how Sonia screwed India over the past 10 years.  Whining about it serves little political purpose.  Getting on with the herculean task of pulling India out of the throes of economic debacle is a better strategy to adopt and the wise PM has done just that.

1. Destroying Dynasties

Anyone who believes that electoral defeat has rendered Sonia vulnerable is living a fool’s paradise.  An Italian village girl, who ruled India for 10 years with an Iron fist, won’t relinquish power so easily.  Her imbecile son may render her electorally unviable for a few more years, but have no doubt, that she has left many a trap doors to trip and counter NaMo.

Sonia achieved two major objectives in her 10 years at the helm. 

1. Weaken India’s military
2. Destroy India’s economy

Her mistake lay in the hubris that set in after the 2009 victory.  With a compromised D4 doing her bidding and the threat of a ‘communal’ NaMo keeping minority votes in her pocket she rightly analyzed the situation to be in her favor for at least the next decade.  As elections drew closer and a NaMo led government gained widespread acceptance we all witnessed her scorched earth policy.

The series of naval accidents (Naval blockade of Pakistan is a key strategic lever), botched international relations, questionable bills passed in parliament, etc. suggest a carefully crafted strategy to keep the next government on its toes, incapable of delivering any semblance of good governance.

With staggering levels of loot witnessed during UPA 1 and 2, it would be safe to assume that D Company is well entrenched within the secular political structures cutting across party lines.  From Congress to SP to even TMC.

Most importantly, it is also safe to assume that Sonia has indirectly acquiesced to the proliferation of covert ISI cells across India.  Remember the intelligence agency reports from a few years back: Key UPA ally and CM of major state was an ISI sympathizer.

Without benefits of a POTA/TADA like law, these cells could be easily activated to cause immense harm to India’s economy and keep its forces occupied in managing domestic conflicts.

Sonia could activate these carefully nurtured Black Ops assets to make life a living hell for the new government.

In this atmosphere if the PM launches an all-out war on the family it could backfire.  We should allow 1977 be our guide.  The newly elected Janata Govt. made ‘Get Indira’ its core strategy.  Hounding her became a national pastime.  With very little delivered in terms of governance, despondency quickly set in.  Granted, that experiment was a hodge-podge of egos and parties.  NDA2 is blessed with an absolute majority.  Nevertheless, the best way to hurt the dynasty is three-fold:

1. Deliver on key promises to create a feel good factor
2. Defeat dynasty at every state and local level so that Dynasty supporters are convinced that sticking with the Gandhis will only bring diminishing returns
3. Declare war on the Dynasty around 2017

Making anti-Sonia noises this early in its tenure will make her larger than life, unite the Congress/UPA behind her and engender sympathy for a widow who has ‘sacrificed’ so much for her family and adopted country.

1. NDA's support for vote against Israel

There’s no doubt that Israel and India share a common DNA.  May be it stems from the non-proselytizing nature of Primary religions of the two countries.  May be it’s because peoples of both nations have suffered (and continue to suffer) grave persecution at the hands of Jihadi tyrants.

So why, ask India’s right wingers, has the new NDA government failed to support (if not protect) Israel’s interests on the international scene.  Why, despite Israel having supported India in her times of need (Kargil, Kashmir, etc.) have we turned our backs on our dear friend?

Well the answer is fairly simple.  There are two reasons:

1. Indian expatriates working in Muslim countries
2. Arab oil

Israel’s sworn enemy Iran has been a friend of India.  Not to the same degree but a friend nevertheless.  Iranian oil supply can be counted on in an event of a war with Pakistan.  The same cannot be said about the Saudis and other Arab states.

Indians form the largest block of foreign works in the Gulf States.  With sectarian conflicts erupting and spreading cross the Middle East, as has happened in Iraq in the past few months, more Indian workers will come in the line of fire.  Any public demonstration of support to Israel will paint India as an enemy of Islam on the Arab street.  Even if sagacious elements within these conflict zones want to support India, they may not be able to. 

India’s strategy of being Israel’s friend in private and an ambivalent, neutral nebulous, confused, prevaricating nobody in public, suits India just fine.

For real evidence of NDA government’s commitment to Israel look for the burgeoning cooperation between the two nations in fields ranging from military hardware, agriculture and software development in the near future.

1.  Reforms, where the heck are the reforms

If Right wingers could have it their way, the NDA government would jettison all left wing programs from NREGA to JNURM and replace them with free market alternatives.

When a person is stabbed with a sharp pointed object, doctors advice bystanders not to remove the knife.  Interestingly enough, the knife acts as a dam, slowing down the rate of bleeding.  Thus buying precious time till medical help has arrived.

Indian economy is in a similar dilemma.  Whether we like it or not, large sections of India’s most impoverished citizens have come to depend on Sonia’s deeply flawed economic policies.  The handout policy initiatives must end.  But doing so without nurturing alternate sources of employment/livelihood would cause a massive disruption in lives of an already marginalized section of society.

Already, the PM has given us a glimpse of the innovative ways in which he plans to leverage these flawed schemes to build long term public assets. 

As he always does, PM Narendra Modi is turning a curse into a blessing.  Gujarat was transformed by two key initiatives – Joytigram and check dams.  Both these being implementable at a national level.

Funds allocated to NREGA can be easily used to build long term rural assets.  Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari has laid out a simple scheme where poor in each village will be given a section of the road to plant trees.  These trees will be nurtured by these ‘owners’ and their fruits, wood, etc. sold each year to earn valuable income.

Another use of NREGA would be to use this labor to build check dams to capture and save rain water.  Gujarat implemented this scheme to trigger a mini green revolution in arid outposts of Kutch and Saurashtra.  NaMo can do the same for rural India.

Suddenly NREGA is no longer a “Sonia Gandhi Congress ko khilao Yojano” but a force multiplier.  Moreover, as these assets grow in value and value addition based agro industries take root, availability of cheap labor will be reduced.  The meager dole handed out by the govt. as part of these schemes will be unable to compete with wages and benefits offered by the private sector.

Handout, mai-baap schemes like NREGA will die a natural death.  Patience my friends patience.

1. Banning Cow slaughter

Why hasn’t NDA government banned cow slaughter as Candidate NaMo had promised on the campaign trail?  Again, economic woes explain the reluctance.  Cattle constitute the last asset left in hands of India’s beleaguered farmers.  With farmer suicides spreading to more states – sale of cattle remains the only source of income for these god forsaken farmers.

One has to only hear their gut wrenching stories (check any regional channel) to understand the pain these farmers bear as they send a “family member” to the slaughter house.  This is not an easy decision for them.  But if the choice is between committing suicide and buying a few more days with their young families, most farmers are choosing the latter.

Banning cow slaughter may or may not end cow slaughter, but it will most certainly devalue the prices of cattle, dealing a further blow to India’s marginal farmer.

Once the economy improves, have not doubt, that PM Narendra Modi will roll back cow slaughter and end it for good.

1. Friendship with Pakistan and China

India’s military is operating with one hand tied behind its back.  Countering an all-out border row with China is unthinkable at this juncture.  Another 26/11 will mandate a quick and lethal response from the new govt.  A depleted military and potentially compromised security apparatus (as evidenced by the series of naval accidents) can ill afford a direct confrontation with either of these countries.

The PM’s actions suggest a strategy to buy time as he rebuilds India’s overt and covert capabilities.  These will take time.  Certainly a decade or so, but India should be able to acquire strong defensive preparedness by 2017.

Till then, keeping Pakistan and China happy will remain the centerpiece of his foreign policy

1. Why persist with Aadhar

At first glance, scrapping this white elephant seems like a no brainer.  But dig deeper and it seems like a gift inadvertently dropped in NDA’s lap by Sonia and her NAC.  Stripped of illegal immigrants, Aadhar can be a powerful tool to circumvent state governments and deliver services directly to the people.

With key parts of Aadhar’s infrastructure already in place, the PM could use this scheme to target key constituencies across India without fear of leakages and pilferage.  From food stamps and coupons to direct deposit of pensions, Aadhar could do for the new PM in Delhi what Garib Kalyan Melas did for the then CM in Gujarat – deliver a more efficient mai-baap government.

Aaadhar’s central flaw is that it does not differentiate between residents and citizens.  By addressing this loophole, the government can help identify illegal Bangladeshis and systematically weed them out of the country.

So folks 2 months are too little a time to evaluate any outfit, much less the labyrinth that is the Indian Government.  Let us wait for 12 to 18 months before we analyze and score this government.  We have elected a man who has delivered at every level.  Given time and support he won’t let us down.