It is said that the ability to delay gratification is a mark
of maturity and equanimity. Though it
was fairly easy to predict that the army of Internet Hindus would need a new
war once 2014 was won, none could have predicted the deep sense of despondency
and disappointment which has crept into our ranks.
Even more surprising is the alacrity with which this fierce
backlash has spread across PM NaMo’s core constituency.
What follows is an attempt to defend the PM and explain the
constraints that have informed his many decisions.
One hopes that these explanations would trigger an internal
dialog and prevent the centrifugal forces threatening to turn some Internet
Hindus into permanent rebels.
Rehabilitation of D4
BJP wasn’t born in 2001 with NaMo’s takeover of
Gujarat. Apart from its formal birth,
BJP’s antecedents inextricably link it to the larger Sangh parivar. By association the PM is straddled with cumulative
sins and virtues of this larger Sangh Ummah.
But this is a fair bargain. If he
benefits from Sangh’s foot soldiers, its vast and entrenched organization in
every nook and corner of India, he must bear the suboptimal behavior of some of
its associates.
Any attempt to divorce himself from the parivar will
backfire in a big way. No one
understands this better than the man himself.
And so does D4. D4 has formed the
core of BJP’s decision making apparatus for over 2 decades now. They know where the bodies are buried and
skeletons are stored. Heck, it’s
possible they are the ones who buried said bodies and skeletons in the first
place.
Even more damaging is the well-oiled ecosystem D4 has
cultivated over their tenure in the corridors of power. An ecosystem that extends from the Judiciary
to the media, from business tycoons to middle men of every stripe.
No doubt Congress and the first family are an integral part
of this ecosystem and both D4 and the family look out for each other. But as we will see, confronting much less
defeating such a formidable adversary is fraught with incalculable risk for a
fledgling government. Even for as
formidable a political warrior as the PM.
In coopting D4, NaMo is following the sage advice of one
Vito Corleone “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”
D4 stripped of power could become a nuisance or worst an
alternate power center within the NDA. D4
could unleash a-scandal-a-day scenario which in turn could feed a TRP hungry,
anti-NaMo media and turn the new government into a pathetic political
circus. If minor incidents such as
anti-Sania statements of a small regional BJP leader can be fill airwaves for 2
days, imagine what real scandals could mean for the PM.
A hopeless D4 could commit hara-kiri and take the new govt.
to the gallows with it.
Much as Obama harnessed the Clinton network by coopting
Hillary as Secretary of Defense, the PM has countered D4 by giving them a place
in the government which ensures a respectable presence in the eyes of the
public. Scratch the surface though and
you can see that PM Narendra Modi has left them with little discretionary
powers. From the babus they select to
key decisions, all are controlled by the all-powerful PMO. The non-political godfathers of this
ecosystem aka Mota Saheb, Chotta Saheb, etc. have all endured the taste of an
unyielding PMO.
As we shall see, rehabilitation of D4 is at best a stop-gap
measure with little wiggle room conceded.
Lastly, as Amit Shah stated in his recent profile in India
Today cover story “He’s only relevant to NaMo as long as he can deliver”. If as close an acolyte as Mr. Shah is dispensable,
where does that leave known frenemies like D4.
Given time, Mr. Modi will fix them too.
Patience my fellow Internet Hindus. Patience.
White paper on a gutted Indian economy
Some Right wingers have bemoaned lack of a white paper to set
a benchmark for the new NDA government.
Such a white paper would have highlighted the abysmal state of Indian
Economy. It would further ensure a valid
excuse for BJP to use in the run up to the 2019 elections, much as Obama had
done in 2012 by (rightly) blaming Bush for America’s economic woes.
But there’s a vital difference between India and
America. If the PM of India tells the
world that India’s economy is in dire straits, the costs would be
devastating. Rising borrowing costs
would hurt the already precarious state of Government’s balance sheet. Higher
interest rates would have a negative impact on the aam middle class aadmi –
NaMo’s core constituency. A weakened
Rupee would raise import costs, further fueling inflation.
Granted that there’s
some merit in this (white paper) strategy, but when weighed against associated
economic costs, the PM has done the right thing by allowing his ministers to
selectively highlight sorry state of India’s economy, eschewing the temptation
to publicly blame UPA for India economy’s pathetic state.
Moreover, people already know how Sonia screwed India over
the past 10 years. Whining about it
serves little political purpose. Getting
on with the herculean task of pulling India out of the throes of economic
debacle is a better strategy to adopt and the wise PM has done just that.
Destroying Dynasties
Anyone who believes that electoral defeat has rendered Sonia
vulnerable is living a fool’s paradise.
An Italian village girl, who ruled India for 10 years with an Iron fist,
won’t relinquish power so easily. Her
imbecile son may render her electorally unviable for a few more years, but have
no doubt, that she has left many a trap doors to trip and counter NaMo.
Sonia achieved two major objectives in her 10 years at the
helm.
Weaken India’s military
Destroy India’s economy
Her mistake lay in the hubris that set in after the 2009
victory. With a compromised D4 doing her
bidding and the threat of a ‘communal’ NaMo keeping minority votes in her
pocket she rightly analyzed the situation to be in her favor for at least the
next decade. As elections drew closer
and a NaMo led government gained widespread acceptance we all witnessed her scorched
earth policy.
The series of naval accidents (Naval blockade of Pakistan is
a key strategic lever), botched international relations, questionable bills
passed in parliament, etc. suggest a carefully crafted strategy to keep the
next government on its toes, incapable of delivering any semblance of good
governance.
With staggering levels of loot witnessed during UPA 1 and 2,
it would be safe to assume that D Company is well entrenched within the secular
political structures cutting across party lines. From Congress to SP to even TMC.
Most importantly, it is also safe to assume that Sonia has
indirectly acquiesced to the proliferation of covert ISI cells across
India. Remember the intelligence agency
reports from a few years back: Key UPA ally and CM of major state was an ISI sympathizer.
Without benefits of a POTA/TADA like law, these cells could
be easily activated to cause immense harm to India’s economy and keep its
forces occupied in managing domestic conflicts.
Sonia could activate these carefully nurtured Black Ops assets
to make life a living hell for the new government.
In this atmosphere if the PM launches an all-out war on the
family it could backfire. We should
allow 1977 be our guide. The newly
elected Janata Govt. made ‘Get Indira’ its core strategy. Hounding her became a national pastime. With very little delivered in terms of
governance, despondency quickly set in.
Granted, that experiment was a hodge-podge of egos and parties. NDA2 is blessed with an absolute
majority. Nevertheless, the best way to
hurt the dynasty is three-fold:
Deliver on key promises to create a feel good
factor
Defeat dynasty at every state and local level so
that Dynasty supporters are convinced that sticking with the Gandhis will only
bring diminishing returns
Declare war on the Dynasty around 2017
Making anti-Sonia noises this early in its tenure will make
her larger than life, unite the Congress/UPA behind her and engender sympathy
for a widow who has ‘sacrificed’ so much for her family and adopted country.
NDA's support for vote against Israel
There’s no doubt that Israel and India share a common
DNA. May be it stems from the non-proselytizing
nature of Primary religions of the two countries. May be it’s because peoples of both nations
have suffered (and continue to suffer) grave persecution at the hands of Jihadi
tyrants.
So why, ask India’s right wingers, has the new NDA
government failed to support (if not protect) Israel’s interests on the
international scene. Why, despite Israel
having supported India in her times of need (Kargil, Kashmir, etc.) have we
turned our backs on our dear friend?
Well the answer is fairly simple. There are two reasons:
Indian expatriates working in Muslim countries
Arab oil
Israel’s sworn enemy Iran has been a friend of India. Not to the same degree but a friend
nevertheless. Iranian oil supply can be
counted on in an event of a war with Pakistan.
The same cannot be said about the Saudis and other Arab states.
Indians form the largest block of foreign works in the Gulf States. With sectarian conflicts erupting and
spreading cross the Middle East, as has happened in Iraq in the past few
months, more Indian workers will come in the line of fire. Any public demonstration of support to Israel
will paint India as an enemy of Islam on the Arab street. Even if sagacious elements within these
conflict zones want to support India, they may not be able to.
India’s strategy of being Israel’s friend in private and an ambivalent,
neutral nebulous, confused, prevaricating nobody in public, suits India just
fine.
For real evidence of NDA government’s commitment to Israel
look for the burgeoning cooperation between the two nations in fields ranging
from military hardware, agriculture and software development in the near
future.
Reforms,
where the heck are the reforms
If Right wingers could have it their way, the NDA government
would jettison all left wing programs from NREGA to JNURM and replace them with
free market alternatives.
When a person is stabbed with a sharp pointed object,
doctors advice bystanders not to remove the knife. Interestingly enough, the knife acts as a
dam, slowing down the rate of bleeding.
Thus buying precious time till medical help has arrived.
Indian economy is in a similar dilemma. Whether we like it or not, large sections of
India’s most impoverished citizens have come to depend on Sonia’s deeply flawed
economic policies. The handout policy
initiatives must end. But doing so without
nurturing alternate sources of employment/livelihood would cause a massive
disruption in lives of an already marginalized section of society.
Already, the PM has given us a glimpse of the innovative
ways in which he plans to leverage these flawed schemes to build long term
public assets.
As he always does, PM Narendra Modi is turning a curse into
a blessing. Gujarat was transformed by
two key initiatives – Joytigram and check dams.
Both these being implementable at a national level.
Funds allocated to NREGA can be easily used to build long
term rural assets. Transport Minister
Nitin Gadkari has laid out a simple scheme where poor in each village will be
given a section of the road to plant trees.
These trees will be nurtured by these ‘owners’ and their fruits, wood,
etc. sold each year to earn valuable income.
Another use of NREGA would be to use this labor to build
check dams to capture and save rain water.
Gujarat implemented this scheme to trigger a mini green revolution in
arid outposts of Kutch and Saurashtra.
NaMo can do the same for rural India.
Suddenly NREGA is no longer a “Sonia Gandhi Congress ko
khilao Yojano” but a force multiplier.
Moreover, as these assets grow in value and value addition based agro
industries take root, availability of cheap labor will be reduced. The meager dole handed out by the govt. as
part of these schemes will be unable to compete with wages and benefits offered
by the private sector.
Handout, mai-baap schemes like NREGA will die a natural
death. Patience my friends patience.
Banning Cow slaughter
Why hasn’t NDA government banned cow slaughter as Candidate
NaMo had promised on the campaign trail?
Again, economic woes explain the reluctance. Cattle constitute the last asset left in
hands of India’s beleaguered farmers.
With farmer suicides spreading to more states – sale of cattle remains
the only source of income for these god forsaken farmers.
One has to only hear their gut wrenching stories (check any
regional channel) to understand the pain these farmers bear as they send a “family
member” to the slaughter house. This is
not an easy decision for them. But if
the choice is between committing suicide and buying a few more days with their
young families, most farmers are choosing the latter.
Banning cow slaughter may or may not end cow slaughter, but
it will most certainly devalue the prices of cattle, dealing a further blow to
India’s marginal farmer.
Once the economy improves, have not doubt, that PM Narendra
Modi will roll back cow slaughter and end it for good.
Friendship with Pakistan and China
India’s military is operating with one hand tied behind its
back. Countering an all-out border row
with China is unthinkable at this juncture.
Another 26/11 will mandate a quick and lethal response from the new
govt. A depleted military and
potentially compromised security apparatus (as evidenced by the series of naval
accidents) can ill afford a direct confrontation with either of these
countries.
The PM’s actions suggest a strategy to buy time as he
rebuilds India’s overt and covert capabilities.
These will take time. Certainly a
decade or so, but India should be able to acquire strong defensive preparedness
by 2017.
Till then, keeping Pakistan and China happy will remain the
centerpiece of his foreign policy
Why persist with Aadhar
At first glance, scrapping this white elephant seems like a
no brainer. But dig deeper and it seems
like a gift inadvertently dropped in NDA’s lap by Sonia and her NAC. Stripped of illegal immigrants, Aadhar can be
a powerful tool to circumvent state governments and deliver services directly
to the people.
With key parts of Aadhar’s infrastructure already in place,
the PM could use this scheme to target key constituencies across India without
fear of leakages and pilferage. From
food stamps and coupons to direct deposit of pensions, Aadhar could do for the
new PM in Delhi what Garib Kalyan Melas did for the then CM in Gujarat –
deliver a more efficient mai-baap government.
Aaadhar’s central flaw is that it does not differentiate
between residents and citizens. By
addressing this loophole, the government can help identify illegal Bangladeshis
and systematically weed them out of the country.
So folks 2 months are too little a time to evaluate any
outfit, much less the labyrinth that is the Indian Government. Let us wait for 12 to 18 months before we analyze
and score this government. We have
elected a man who has delivered at every level.
Given time and support he won’t let us down.