Managing the ‘NOISE’ cycle and the Karnataka Conundrum

A few weeks back I predicted the use of ‘Noise’ as a political weapon by NaMo’s enemies in the CONgress.  Needless to say, they haven’t disappointed us.

 

What is NOISE?

 

Every minor issue is magnified and turned into ‘Breaking News’ to saturate the day’s news cycle.  CONgress did this successfully with the manufactured ‘Ram Sene’ episode in 2009 and it is turning to its tried and test tricks to do the same with NaMo in 2014.

 More importantly, running this 'Noise' in a loop helps establish it as the gospel truth, which in turn helps define the opposition.


American politicians have invented this modern day political weapon.  (Google: Swift boating of John Kerry by Team Bush)


Indian examples:

 1.      'Ram Sene' pub incident in 2009 (which painted BJP as regressive and consumed vital news cycle on eve of the 2009 elections)

 2.      $ 16,000 controversy over US Delegation’s visit to Gujarat

 3.      And the latest:  ‘NaMo must lead the Karnataka assembly campaign’

Obviously Karnataka is a trap.  Damned if he does, Damned if he doesn’t. 

 It’s a no-win situation for NaMo and at the very least will provide enough fodder for CONgress to challenge the NaMo-wave that is clearly forming across the country - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/11/next-24-months.html

 

Karnataka BJP has shot itself in the foot.  Instead of pitting Yeddy’s nepotism against Sonia’s Vadragate, they have managed to create a second Kalyan Singh.  All signals suggest, Karnataka is going the way of UP.  The similarities are startling:  A strong local satrap, a star performer, with alleged soft spot for an attractive, younger colleague, accused of promoting family interests, done in by national leadership for their personal political gains.

With no local face, and a fragmented BJP leadership, Karnataka election is likely to produce a hung assembly as a best case scenario.  Worst case: CONgress wins a clear majority.

NaMo does not possess a magic potion that can remedy this situation, certainly not with a few weeks of campaigning. 

 So how does NaMo win the NOISE cycle?

 CONgress’ basic argument is that Rahul led from the front in a no-win state like UP (and earlier Bihar) whereas NaMo is shying away from taking the plunge in Karnataka.

 Let’s look at the key differences:

1.       Rahul was given complete control of these states well in advance (4 years for Bihar and 8 years for UP)

2.       He could have hand-picked each and every candidate (which he did)

3.       He could have appointed a capable CM candidate in each state to lead the charge

4.       He could have selected the issues to be highlighted

          a.       And he did, with the manufactured Bhata Parsaul controversy

5.       He could have presented fresh ideas

6.       He could have micro-managed the course of local party units – from voter registration to booth management

7.       He was given unlimited resources to win these states

Yet Rahul failed.  And failed miserably.

NaMo has no such luxuries. 

By highlighting the aforementioned differences between Rahul’s UP/Bihar campaigns we can (at least partially) neutralize this clamor to have NaMo lead Karnataka BJP.

Basic Argument: Give NaMo half the time and resources put at Rahul's disposal and watch how he turns every BJP unit around - not just Karnataka.  But with only a few weeks of campaigning, local factors will dominate. 

NaMo is bound to win LS 2014 for BJP in Karnataka and other states as national issues will be in play and BJP will have a clear leader - NaMo.

Let’s do this early so that CONgress' latest ‘Ram Sene’ missile is nipped in the bud.

p.s.

Official BJP spokespersons may or may not be able to articulate these arguments.  But non-BJP, pro-NaMo panelists could certainly make them on live TV and the social media.