The Iceberg Theory

The Iceberg Theory

As we await results of the 2012 Gujarat polls, I can’t help but gloat.  For several years now, yours truly has postulated these seemingly naïve and preposterous theories vis-à-vis NaMo’s fortunes in Delhi.  Having been ridiculed, even by some well-meaning Internet Hindus, I can’t help but gloat at how these theories are playing out almost exactly as I had predicted.  (Once twitter allows for wider historical search, I’ll look up all my old tweets and publish them as proof)

One such theory is the theory of the ‘Iceberg’:

“NaMo’s support base resembled an Iceberg.  A vast section lay hidden beneath the surface and given the appropriate circumstances, it would begin revealing itself”.

Post 2007 as I surveyed my super liberal friends, I sensed a grudging respect for NaMo.  The counter questions they posed to my hagiographical arguments in favor of NaMo were the typical ELM talking points. “But what about 2002” and “what about democratic institutions”.  As I silenced them with facts and figures, the expressions on their faces and the tone in their voices changed.  It was no longer as sharp and strident.  In fact, there was a frustration writ large on their faces.  A sentiment I could sense but could not identify.  It was almost, like they wanted to support NaMo, but something prevented them from doing it openly.

Was it fear of social ostracism? Did this fear of being branded a ‘communalist’ or a ‘Sanghi’ preclude them from openly expressing their support?

That was the first indication that a vast reservoir of support for NaMo did exist.  A further analysis of  public figures revealed another startling insight.  Very few were willing to go on record to criticize NaMo.  The usual Pinkos were clearly anti-NaMo, but they were greatly outnumbered by the silent fence sitters.

But were these fence sitters, straddling those fences due to fear of being caught up in the political crossfire or were they closet supporters of NaMo, who would, given the right circumstances, jump the fence and publicly advocate the NaMo-for-PM line.  May be I was dreaming but this theory jived with another theory I had first postulated back in 2004 when CONgress came back to power:

Sonia’s CONgress (with its decade long pent up greed) would ruin India once and for all. 

I had no idea how they would accomplish this feat. But having followed CONgress closely since 1984, I had no doubt; their talent at screwing India would, sooner rather than later, manifest itself. 

NaMo’s victory in 2007 and UPA-I’s non-performance convinced me that this this ‘Iceberg’ theory had legs.   All we needed was a catalyst or several successive catalysts.

Results of Gujarat 2012 are that catalyst, that inflection point.  As everyone from Madhu Kishwar, Tavleen Singh, Kiran Muzumdar and others, openly support NaMo, this ‘Iceberg’ theory is coming true.  And it will now feed on itself.  The Network Effect will start kicking in.  As the Oxbridge crowd jumps on the NaMo bandwagon, more and more Indians will start openly supporting NaMo.  Each will use a reason to justify their support (from the economy to corruption to NaMo’s track record to the TINA factor) but support they will.

This exodus will feed another suggestion I made a couple of years back.  That NaMo must start building an army of apostles.  Public figures in every state/city willing to go to the people and explain the Modi Miracle.

As these public figures start supporting NaMo openly, MSM will launch a virulent counter offensive and target them.  Given the changed circumstances (with NaMo within reach of Delhi), these attacks will not only fail to intimidate this growing band of supporters but also turn these public figures into a de facto Army of NaMo apostles.

NaMo has now ceased to be a political leader; he is now a movement, an idea.

 “There is no force more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo