Stopping BJP by a Thousand Cuts

For several years now political junkies (yours truly included) have fretted over biggest question facing supporters of PM Modi - How will they stop the BJP in 2019? 

Conventional political wisdom offered  one answer:  The MahaGhatbandhan (MGB).

But as the MGB has fizzled out two alternatives have emerged.  Alternatives, BJP and Team NaMo can ignore at their own peril. 

1. Non political actors/situations
2. Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity' - by association

NOTE:  As I have said in previous posts for BJP to lose, the opposition doesnt need to win.  Restricting BJP to 220 would allow Congress and its clones to survive.
 
Non-Political Actors/Situations:

 Anti-India forces have set in motion a wide range of strategies hoping one of them will work.  The primary strategy is focused on dividing Indian/Hindu society. 

It's also the one strategy which has found traction.  

The Modi govt. has delivered corruption free 'mai-baap' governance.  In doing so it has hurt traditional BJP vote banks and more importantly opened up space to fuel Upper caste grievance mongering. 

Jats, Patels, Marathas....all have one thing in common - dominant castes demanding reservations. 

These groups fit into a large strategy to expose India's fault lines and trigger a series of local conflicts. 

Young Tamilians, for instance, are being indoctrinated with the notion that Tamil were never Indians/Hindus.  They had a separate identity.  The old AIT has been polished and reintroduced with some updates. 

It would be a far cry to expect all these strategies to bear fruit.  But that may not be the intention of the evil empire driving these anti-India forces. 

The trick may be to create enough localized discontent to turn what is likely to be another 'Presidential' election into a sum of several localized electoral contests. 

BJP lost 2004 partly due to local issues overwhelming a nationalized 'India Shining' campaign. 

Left unaddressed, these local bush fires could grow into uncontrollable forest fires and consume BJP's hopes - one local election at a time. 

Demands for reservations cannot be tackled one group at a time.  And conceding reservations beyond the SC mandated 50% would spell disaster for the govt. 

Instead BJP needs to leverage India's lethargic legal system to deflect these demands and buy time so as delay these agitations beyond 2019.  

One way to do it is to refer the demands to a specially constituted bench of retired SC judges.  The bench should be constituted around mid-2018.  But the suggestion should be made around late 2017.  This timeline would delay a judgement well beyond 2019 and neutralize the political facet of these demands. 


Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity'

May be this rant is a bit premature.  But news of India's Most Corrupt joining the BJP keeps trickling in.  From Narayan Rane to now Sharad Pawar. 

Granted, having Pawar in the NDA camp would neutralize any chance of a viable MGB coming to fruition.  But the cost is prohibitive.  It undermines and weakens the one quality that has served as PM Modi impregnable shield from his first term as CM of Gujarat. 

Furthermore, it dilutes BJP's anti-corruption plank and brings BJP-Congress closer to parity on the critical issue of clean governance. 

It would be easy for the Congress and its presstitutes to resort to that old stratagem  - Congress-BJP-Same-Same. 

Successive election victories may have lulled BJP into political hubris.  2019 will be the biggest political battle (perhaps) the world has ever seen.  

It will be a no-holds-barred war.  By taking on friends like Rane-Pawar, BJP wont need enemies. 

China's Conundrum from OBOR to South China Sea - Explained

Picture this - China has reached the end of its economic boom cycle.  Transition to a truly market driven economy is proving to be a distant dream.  Unemployment/Under-employment could lead to social unrest carrying with it the real threat of a 'Beijing Spring'. 


Question:  What would China do?
Answer:  Colonize 

Chinese economy is too big to fail.  Even a minor speed bump could spook international markets.

But something has certainly spooked the Mandarins of the Communist Party of China (CPC).  Hitler lost his war cause he opened too many fronts.  China is doing the same.  The usually cautious and deliberate Chinese leadership is flailing, throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the global wall, hoping something will stick.

Pakistan and North Korea are the only real 'allies' China can count on.  Their status as International pariahs has left the two dysfunctional nations with few options.  Even a country like Australia whose economy is dependent on China's insatiable appetite for Australia's natural resources is openly maneuvering to counter China. 

But within China's ham handedness lies a strategy.  One driven by 
a) a well known desire to replace Uncle Sam as the preeminent super power 
b) fear

China is getting hit by a double whammy - rising unemployment and an aging population.  The one child policy has created a social dynamic which a much smaller and more prosperous Japan has struggled with for years i.e. Younger couples having to support and care for up to 6-8 parents + grandparents. 


China lacks the resources to create a social safety net that can support a large restless population.  As the Great Recession hit its primary export markets in 2008, China opted for the only solution at its disposal.  A massive Quantitative Easing program which as a percentage of GDP would be the largest program launched by any nation.  

The debt was channeled through local govts. to state owned enterprises to keep the wheels turning i.e. Keep workers employed.  One estimate suggests that 70% of Chinese companies are state owned.  While the Alibabas of the world garner attention and provide Beijing with a veneer of free market, the CPC through the Chinese govt. controls most of China's companies and its economy. 

China's massive borrowing binge resulted in the creation of Ghost cities and industrial over capacity. Local govts. were given quarterly targets and provided with unlimited funds to achieve them.  It did not matter that there were no takers for the 'products' produced by these efforts.  Growth for growth sake was the only objective.  It kept citizens employed and a restive population in check.   

A normal free market economy would allow (even encourage) failing enterprises to fail and the natural process of creative destruction to play itself out.  Using the resulting reallocation of resources to create new profitable enterprises. 

China's command/control economy does not allow such a restructuring to occur.  It is simply fraught with too much risk.  In democracies disgruntled citizens/laid off workers take to the streets and replace their rulers. 

China has no such outlet.  They are on a treadmill and must continue running just to stay in place. 

Additionally, a free society is a prerequisite to creating an innovation driven economy.  If the thought of 5 strangers assembling in a friend's garage threatens Beijing, the chances of an Apple or Microsoft emerging out of China are slim to none.  Is it any surprise that most Chinese goods are knock-offs of ideas generated in other parts of the world. 


Enter Colonialism.  

As with European Colonial conquests, China is sending out missions to explore and occupy small patches of space within target countries.  No third world country is safe.  

The strategy is as follows: 

1. Offer financial assistance as part of a grand program - One Belt One Road
2. Co-opt local leadership with a combination of shiny infrastructure monuments and corruption 
3. Inflate the bill to bribe aforementioned local rulers 
4. Flip ratio of 'Investment to Loan' and impose the loans at unsustainable interest rates 
5. Draw recipient nations into a debt trap
6. Allow only Chinese state owned companies to implement projects 
7. Import Chinese labor to execute the project 
8. Convert project workers into settlers 
9. Use debt burden to subdue any local resistance to Chinese settlers 

This strategy kills many birds with one stone. 

1. Expands China's unviable 'Ghose city' strategy to an International scale 
2. Gets foreign govts to finance China's Colonial expansion 
3. Migrates Chinese labor from the mainland to foreign shores easing some of the local social pressures
4. Begins the creation of local Chinese assets available to do China's bidding in the future

China's desperate attempts to simultaneously intimidate all its neighbors points to several short comings of this strategy. 

1. China's own debt may be much higher than estimates suggest.  Limiting its room to maneuver out of any economic crisis
2. Social unrest may be at a critical inflection point 
3. Time may be running out 
4. OBOR could be the only way for the CPC to stave off impending doom
5. With nations (latest being Kenya) wising up to China's imperial ambitions, China may be running out of runway 

Ideally, a confident, secure China would have waited for an aging, fatigued West to wear itself out.  With Islamism eviscerating western societies, another decade would leave China with easy pickings.  The rush to implement OBOR suggests Chinese leadership has seen something we havent. 


OBOR is CPC's attempt at self preservation. It may already be too late.

Why Hinduism Shouldnt Sacrifice Its Soul as It Battles for Survival

The world is turning more liberal.  Adopting practices which seem startlingly similar to a very Hindu way of life.  From Dietary practices (Americans consume 19% less meat than they did a decade ago) and environmentalism to a spiritualism that accepts and celebrates many paths to the same god,  the world is adopting virtues deeply embedded and/or originating within Hinduism.  

As these trends gather momentum, traditionally strong religiopolitical  forces have accelerated their game plan to replenish their depleting ranks.  Western Europe is now a majority atheist region.  America is heading in that direction.  Couple these long term trends with aging populations in both regions and you have a dreaded confluence of factors which are undermining Western religions/doctrines.  

Not only are people forgoing traditional religions, they are increasingly attracted to a DIY, laissez-faire spirituality which is the very bedrock of Eastern religions. 

Islam is facing a crisis of its own.  And Communism is little more than a foot note in history. 

This is not to suggest that Hinduism is a pristine, flawless doctrine.  But its open-source structure is precisely what the world is turning too.  

Show me another religion which worships a Muslim Fakir and turns his shrine into the 3rd largest pilgrimage destination. 

What is at once its achilles heel (its tolerant openness and acceptance of other religions as a valid path to nirvana) is also its greatest strength. 

It took horrors of the Holocaust to bring Europe face-to-face with its evil, exclusivist doctrines, and question centuries old religious beliefs.

It may be wishful thinking on my part but a similar awakening is under way within Islam.  It may take a near death event to push Muslims to experience their own catharsis and come around to the social tolerance that has gained ground even in communist China. 

But as these evolutions play out, Hinduism cannot sacrifice its core, its greatest asset i.e. Sarva Dharma Samabhav 

Surely Hindus must arm and fight an eye for an eye.  But in doing so they must not be seen as a poor caricature of the Abrahamic cousins.  

Instead of defending violence over Gau raksha, how about addressing the flaws that plague Hindus.  Where, for instance, we give more to Temples than to charitable causes and then decry the govt as it fritters away temple wealth.  

If every Hindu focuses on one small act/deed/thought that lies at the core of Hinduism - tolerance, respect for nature, the oneness of the Universe....we will be prepared to welcome the world when it finally comes to its senses. 

China's Doklam Desperation Explained - The Future Treaty of Gilgit-Baltistan

Ever since China instigated the Doklam impasse a series of statements and actions coming out of Beijing have suggested an increasing sense of desperation creeping into China's behavior vis-a-vis India and the larger AfPak region. 

The alacrity  with which China has scaled its statements and diplomatic actions insinuates international steaks that go far beyond controlling India. 

What may be at stake is the very perpetuation of CCP's economic model and in turn its political hold over the country. 

The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) / OBOR 

China's economic model rests on two pillars - Exports and Infrastructure spending.  Both these pillars have floundered.  Exports i.e. Labor arbitrage have been hit by increasing competition coming from cheaper labor markets such as Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, etc.  On the other hand China's spending spree since 2008's financial crisis has burdened its banks with bone crushing debt. 

As a percentage of GDP, China implemented the biggest Quantitative Easing program in the world.  It was the only way it could sustain the much needed 6-7 % growth rate. 

Chinese workers (unlike their Indian counterparts) dont take kindly to being laid off.  Incidents of middle managers being lynched by angry workers have become routine so have worker suicides at brand name companies such as Foxconn. 

China's communist mandarins fear democracy/social unrest and its potential to terminally disrupt their control over the country. 

 Though China's QE helped keep China's workers employed and pliant it resulted in ghost cities, malls and other superfluous assets.  
These ghost cities have never been occupied and are seen as white elephants - decaying and serving as a reminder to the excesses of a growth-addicted Communist party. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo0tvY_4PlM

China's corporate sector is an undecipherable maze of companies partially or completely owned by the government.  The objective of all these entities is a singular focus on growth.  By any means possible. 

Local governments are given annual goals to meet growth objective with a wide mandate to borrow beg or steal to achieve their goals. 

Such an arrangement not only breeds corruption but perpetuates a ecosystem which must be fed with additional opportunities just so it does not collapse. 

The resulting excesses lead to a misallocation of resources with both corporate and govt. entities straddled with bone crushing debt. 

After 9 years of unbridled spending China is now facing a debt crisis of unprecedented proportions.  China is shielded from a debt crisis thanks to very high forex reserves and size as the world's second largest economy. 

China is - to put it simply - too big to fail. 

But the crisis facing CCP is of a different kind.  Not of outright economic collapse (which is unlikely) but of a slowing economy triggering a domino effect which leads to social turmoil. 

BRI is a grand scheme to get foreign countries to fuel the growth/construction of Chinese assets financed by Chinese credit and built by Chinese workers. 

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is its first and most visible pilot project.  China has tested this model in Turkemistan and Sri Lanka.  Both countries have had to surrender land and assets to China in lieu of the massive debt they have been straddled with. 

Voices in Pakistan (and elsewhere) have started uttering the dreaded 'C' word - Colonialism. 

Jamaica will be China's first colony - 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBCRHcLH6NM

As this video indicates the similarities are startling.  A ruling elite paid off by the Chinese govt. and co-opted to do China's bidding to convince their citizens to support and celebrate China's colonial ambitions. 

The ruling elite participates in and profits from the asset boom leaving their citizens with debt and future Chinese ownership.  

CPEC is the biggest and most audacious attempt.  Its success/failure may influence the very future of the CCP. 

When examined within this paradigm, China's Doklam desperation begins to make more sense. 

As influential thinkers within Pakistan start alerting the larger population to dangers posed by CPEC, China is running up against a shortened timeline.  

China is running out of time.  

Chinese CPEC game plan is simple two-step program:

1. Build key pieces of CPEC (Coal fed power plants, highways, etc.)
2. Straddle Pakistan with debt and demand concessions

It is my belief that Pakistan will not see the $46-50 Billion promised.  As soon as the debt burden reaches critical mass where Pakistan is unable to even service the debt, China will start rolling it and growing it so that Pakistan will be on the hook for a huge debt burden. 

This debt burden will be legally binding.  A debt ridden Pakistan will first concede Gilgit-Baltistan to China military.  

And here's the kicker if India attacks POK, this legal agreement between China-Pak will make China a party to the dispute. 

Chinese intelligence monitoring India's arms build up has come to the same conclusion as I did - India plans a major operation in POK.  

An outright India attack would disrupt China's carefully laid plans.   

China's Doklam adventure is designed to achieve multiple objectives chief among them - force India to delay its operation in POK giving China time to bring the aforementioned 2-step strategy to fruition.  

But Chinese desperation may have had the opposite effect i.e. pushed India's hand by introducing a sense of urgency.  

The next 5 years may ......

China's 'Doklam' Miscalculation - And its Wider Implications

It makes no sense.  Even an rookie soldier would tell you that you dont open your strategic moves by playing your biggest card.  It defies common sense. 

So what prompted China to challenge India in Doklam?  Why open an Eastern front with India this early in the process?  Why surrender the element of surprise?  

A 'preemptive strike' seems like the only explanation.   

A docile Indian response for 40+ years has bred a sense of sanguine overconfidence within the Chinese establishment.  Recent reports suggests China has usurped 2000 sq km of Indian territory over the past few decades. 

A micro, local version of the 'salami slice' doctrine has been implemented by China.  

It follows a now familiar pattern:

1. Call an area 'disputed'
2. Claim said area and call for talks for a 'peaceful' resolution 
3. Confront border forces and occupy small areas within 'disputed' area
4. Gauge rival's response.  Is response 'muted', feeble? Continue occupying area and build semi-permanent structures
5. Repeat cycle 

Successive Indian governments have preferred an ostrich like approach to China's expansionist ambitions.  An approach which has conditioned the Chinese into fashioning their tactics with a docile, subservient India as a starting point. 

This week's Doklam incident must be seen in this light.  

But a broader chess game is underway.  

As described here http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html

India is preparing to attack Pakistan with a clear objective:  Take and hold POK. 

Pakistan's severely weakened economy, dependence on American military hardware and international isolation has given India a near perfect window to act now.  

China's CPEC program has injected a sense of urgency into India's plans.  India faces a 'now-or-never' moment vis-a-vis the Sino-Pak axis. 

Even a limited war with India in POK would severely damage CPEC.  More importantly even if India fails to achieve all its objectives, a declared war would open the door for India to establish CPEC as an encroachment on Indian territorial sovereignty and impose a program to permanently cripple it  through cross border bombings, Water Wars, etc. 

Moreover, the consequent rise in cost of protecting CPEC would make it bottomless pit and scare away prospective investors. 

China understands these factors.  What is baffling though it its willingness to open its counter moves with the biggest strategic card in the deck i.e. opening a second front on India's eastern border with China. 

Couple this incursion with the 'downed' Sukhoi jet on Indo-China earlier this month and we can draw the following conclusions:  China wants to buy time and prevent the aforementioned attack on POK. 

Perhaps the Chinese expected the usual muted response from India and were hoping to scare India into paralysis on the Western front. 

If not permanently, than long enough to allow China to build out their CPEC highway/railway network in POK and allow for a large contingent of PLA to be stationed there and become the defacto border force to defend against Indian aggression.  

Some reports have suggested that 10,000 Chinese troops are already stationed in POK.  But against overwhelming odds (India has 100,000 troops in Kashmir alone) China needs to buy more time. 

By escalating the Doklam incident, Indian strategist has played their cards well.  A larger escalation would draw international attention.  With Bhutan siding with India, China risks reinforcing its image as an international bully.  Smaller states along OBOR will get the message - You could be the next victim in China's hegemonistic designs. 

Actions taken by India over the past 3 years suggests that Indian military has prepared for a two front war.  India's long border with China will allow it to counter Chinese incursions in one area with their own incursions along other parts of the border.  Defending such a long border would raise costs for China.  

The best China can hope for is an uneasy stalemate.  

These factors help explain China's somewhat haphazard opening gambit.  

The question is how far are they willing to take this.  

One last point.  CPEC is more than a strategic 'string of pearls' project for China.  It is a OBOR demonstrator program.  Its failure would severely dent Chinese attempts to replicate it in other parts of the world. 

CPEC's importance within OBOR suggests China will prevent Pakistan's use of Nukes (tactical or conventional) in the battlefield.  Indian counters would permanently destroy China's ability to gain a control over Af-Pak.  

CPEC may have (at least partly) crippled Pakistan's nuclear blackmail. 

The Approaching War - India Vs. Pakistan...- China ... 2018 - Part 1

It is now a foregone conclusion.  A matter of when, not if. 

India will attack Pakistan.  Pakistan knows it and can do little about it. 

What is to be seen is the nature, intensity and final objectives of this assault. 

We can analyze and speculate.

The planning for this assault seems to have started  as soon as PM Modi took office.  As most other Internet Hindus, including yours truly were agitated and angered by Modi Government's supposed hobnobbing with Pakistani interests, the Modi-Doval team was putting in motion a long term strategy to find a permanent solution to Pakistan.  CPEC merely accelerated the timeline.

PM Modi's 'unplanned' surprise visit to Pakistan was particularly painful.  "HOW COULD HE?" was the consensus sentiment across PM Modi's core supporters. 

But Pakistan is a complex problem.  If mere military solution worked, India would have exercised that option a long ago.  Pakistan has since its inception, positioned itself as a leader of the global Muslim Ummah.  Any assault on Pakistan would be perceived as an attack on Muslims. 

PM Modi needed to make a public and demonstrable effort to make peace with Pakistan so that European bleeding heart rulers and Arab monarchies would be convinced that the assault on Pakistan was a last resort.  

A. The Arab Variable:

The first part PM Modi's strategy aimed at decoupling Pakistan from the rest of the Muslim world. 

The soft approach toward both Saudi Arabia and UAE in particular should been seen in this light.  This approach involved 3  facets:

1. Leverage the peaceful, hardworking Indian diaspora to reassure these Arab nations that they can count on India to support them against their own extremist elements

2. Subtly play on the growing fears of Arab rulers that the jihadi fires funded and nurtured by them are approaching their own citadels and unless nipped in the Pakistani bud would consume them sooner rather than later

3.  Build strong economic interdependence.  According to Paki media India-UAE alone have signed MOUs worth $75 billion.  The main feature of this relationship is UAE providing India with energy security by building an oil reserve on their soil while India provides UAE with food security by providing dedicated Agri zones.

The success of this Arab outreach can be gauged from the muted response vis-a-vis Kashmir from the larger Muslim Ummah particularly the Arab states.


 B. China - The Wild Card

Perhaps the biggest variable in creating a lasting and permanent solution to the Pakistan problem is China.  With America having given up on Pakistan, China remains India's biggest worry.  Any overt support from China must be accounted for and neutralized. 

It is safe to assume that China will do everything within its right and beyond to preserve its carefully nurtured asset. But the very factors that have driven Pakistan into China's arms can and will be used to unravel the Sino-Paki alliance.

 Islamic insurgencies are sprouting across the globe.  From Manila to Manchester and beyond.  China has its own ticking Islamic time bomb - XinJiang.  Chinese arrogance seems to think it can put the Jihadi Genie back in the bottle. 

One must applaud the ambition of the Chinese leadership. With CPEC China is attempting to win a war in a region and against a foe where 3 Empires have failed. 

Chinese strategists and leadership have come to the right conclusion i.e. Pakistan is a basket case and beyond redemption. 

As argued here last year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html - CPEC is an attempted takeover of Pakistan by the Chinese Communist party. 

Leaks published by Pakistan's leading daily Dawn have essentially confirmed the arguments set forth in the aforementioned post. 

If anything China's ambitions are far greater in scale and go far beyond establishing pockets of influence deep inside Pakistan.  This is an attempted hollowing out of Pakistan - geographically, militarily and culturally. 

Chinese calculations (at this point in time) seem to be spot on.  A friendless Pakistan has its back to the wall.  Former owners America and Saudi Arabia have decided not to renew the lease on their former b...h. 

A nearly bankrupt Pakistan has started out on its annual pilgrimage with an even larger begging bowl.  

Now add to these woes the never relenting march of radical Islam and a hostile arch enemy India which is finally getting its act together under PM Modi and you have Pakistan with few choices. 

For China the choices are stark and binary:  

A)  Sit back and watch radical Islam over run Pakistan with India attacking it in the near future to forever neutralize China's number one leverage in the region

OR 

B) Take a more proactive approach and turn Pakistan into an Islamic North Korea - dependent on the CCP for even the most rudimentary military and economic needs and in return ready to do China's bidding at the drop of a hat. 

China wants to replicate in South Asia the same leverage it enjoys vis-a-vis North Korea i.e. have an ally with which hold the entire region to ransom.

But China is making a vital error in its carefully though out  calculations.

Pakistan, it is often said, depends on the 3 As - Allah, Army and America. 

While CPEC has co-opted the mealy mouth Army, Allah and America are likely to react with a vengeance to any Chinese encroachment on their long held turf.

Allah:

It is now almost a weekly occurrence - news reports trickling out of China's muslim majority state Xin Jiang describe the draconian measures China is taking to suppress (and potentially eradicate) every symbol of Islam. 

What were occasional news reports have become routine.  here's a sample from month of May 2017 alone:

http://nextshark.com/china-reportedly-collect-millions-dna-samples-year-muslim-region/


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/12/anti-muslim-sentiment-is-on-the-rise-in-china-we-found-that-the-internet-fuels-and-fights-this/?utm_term=.f746f48f1b74

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4443586/China-bans-extreme-Islamic-baby-names-Muslims.html

At some point China will have to contend with the greatest threat facing the world - Radical Islam.  Even a subservient Pakistan wouldnt be able to stop the upsurge in anti-Chinese sentiment in the backdrop of this growing anti-Islamic crackdown. 

CPEC would add a new dimension to this war between Communist China and radical Islam i.e. Colonialism

Pakistani news media and columnists have already started uttering the 'C' word.  The New East India Company is a recurring theme on the Pakistani neck of social media.  

CPEC may as well stand for China's Pakistan Exploitation Company. 

India can and should exploit this fault line.  As one Pakistani acquaintance once said to me "To us our religion is the only thing.  Everything else is a distant second".  That sentiment explains all of Pakistan's misfortune.  All of it.  

And it is a sentiment which China has failed to account for in its carefully laid out strategy. 

As Pakistan (in its blind hatred of India) turns a blind eye to China's anti-Muslim crackdown, it loses what little credibility it holds within the larger Muslim Ummah. 



C. American/European Perfidy

American/Western foreign policy is often  "If they against us they are "terrorists"  if they are with us they are "freedom fighters"  - goes the old cold war era joke. 

......To Be Continued 

D. Pakistan's Economy



E.  Pakistan's Military



F.  Pakistan's Other Neighbors


G. India's Strategy - The Timing



H. What could go Wrong?

CPEC, Uighurs and Rohingas - What do they have in Common - The New Great (Muslim) Wall of China

For months now several strands culminating in and around Kashmir have baffled yours truly.  Something things dont add up. 

1. Rohingas being settled in all places J&K
2. China's takeover of Pakistan aka CPEC
3. The massive, draconian crackdown of Uighurs across Xin Jiang

CPEC is a money pit.  None of the players involved will find a way to recover the large sums being 'invested' in the hell hole that is Pakistan. Clearly China has ulterior motives.  Motives which have been exposed by Pakistan's leading daily 'Dawn' earlier this month.

(Please refer to previous posts on this blog for details on CPEC's implications).

Contrast China's love for rabidly islamic Pakistan with how they treat their own Muslim minority.  Uighurs are now a minority in their own state.  And this trend is only accelerating.  China has left no stone unturned to a) change demographics of this once Muslim majority region and b) dilute (if not erase) the muslim identity of Uighurs.

But what explains the incomprehensible attempts to settle Rohingas from Burma in J&K (if latest reports are to be believed) very close to the border with Pakistan?  Who is permitting this and why?

One aspect of CPEC that caught my attention was the unchallenged acceptance of Chinese labor and managers being used across all projects connected with this project.  Given that few non-Chinese entities will be allowed to participate in this effort it is safe to assume that Chinese nationals will be flooding Pakistan.

Couple this infusion with China's plans to cultural sensitization of Pakistanis toward the Chinese and a strange picture seems to emerge.

What if one key objective behind CPEC is settling Uighurs from Xinjian in Pakistan, cleansing Chinese territories of Muslim influence and transferring the headache to a pliant and subservient ally i.e. use CPEC to employ 'Chinese' Uighurs as laborers and then leave them in Pakistan.

And what if Burma (a long time Chinese ally) has done the same with Rohingas?  Drive them out and with help from Indian collaborators  settle them in Jammu to create a demographic shift within J&K so that a contiguous Muslim region can be built as a buffer between India and China - the new Great (Muslim) Wall of China.

Yes I'm clutching at straws.  But nothing is beyond the realm when it comes to Chinese machinations. 

Pakis-Naxals - The Real China-Pakistan Corridor

Mutilation of Indian soldiers and Naxal attack on CRPF are seemingly unconnected events.  100s of kms apart, executed by very different protagonists albeit with a similar objection - Destruction of India. 

But make no mistake the Dragon and his bitch are working in tandem anticipating and desperately trying to preempt a major initiative by the Modi Govt. in the not too distant future. 

Over the past year, Pakistani media is abuzz with stories of India's rapid military build up.   The Modi Govt. has not only hasten the pace of long term military infrastructural initiatives across the Indo-China border but much to Pakistan's chagrin, also updated defense acquisition processes to plug vital gaps in India's immediate military preparedness.

Reports indicate that India is preparing to wage a short 2-3 week war against Pakistan to achieve key permanent and long term objectives. 

The primary objectives may be clear (and I shall NOT delve into them here) but the secondary outcomes may deliver much greater long term benefits to India.

A short conflict will allow India to inflict max. damage whilst keeping the conflict below the nuclear threshold.  Moreover, it would prevent world powers from exerting pressure on India to enter into serious negotiations over long standing bilateral disputes. 

Both China and Pakistan recognize that the timing suits India.  China's economy is rapidly slowing down.  In addition, demand for its goods is shrinking the west - its primary (and most lucrative) trading partner.  Devastation of America's retail sector is a leading indicator of the coming Chinese economic slow down (Note: Volume lost via Retail bankruptcies is not translating completely into commensurate online sales)

Pakistan holds barely 5 months of foreign exchange which has prompted its FM to go on his annual 'begging' pilgrimage across the world. 

Pakistan's inventory of vital spare parts is shrinking with PAF forced to cannibalize its own planes to keep their depleted squadrons in fighting shape.  With most (if not all) its assets originating in America, India holds an heretofore unimaginable indirect leverage over Pakistan's ability to sustain an air conflict.

Contrary to reports, Chinese made 'J' fighter jets are no match to India's Sukhois.

It would not take much for India to gain air superiority over Pakistan.  In fact Pakistan would be reluctant to engage any of its air assets lest India permanently cripples Pakistan's ability to deliver nukes (with surface to surface missiles remaining the only option).

Given Pakistan's inability to sustain any meaningful economic growth (currently at < 1%) its ability to pay for state-of-the-art military hardware is highly questionable.  


Delusional Paki 'experts' may argue that Pakistan is no longer considered a pariah state in global capitals, but with each menacing Jihadi attack, Pakistan's image as a global terror state gains even more traction. 

Given these circumstances, no real global power would furnish Pakistan with the neccessary hardware to counter a massive Indian attack. 

Even its all weather friend - China - would think twice before openly supporting Pakistan - unless the conflict escalates and it sees India's position weaken both militarily and diplomatically.

Pakistan and China have understood these factors and are trying to preempt India's coming military actions by using the two low cost options available to them i.e. Jihadis and Naxals. 

Their strategy has the following objective:

1. Keep India preoccupied on the domestic front
2. Raise Indian military's cost of openly taking on Pakistan
3. Forcing India into acting prematurely 
4. Gauging India's response vis-a-vis continued provocations

PM Modi's Zen like silence reminds me of how Michael Corleone in the novel 'The Godfather' ignores and silently suffers every insult and provocation inflicted on him by the Barzini led New York families till the time he's ready to act against them. 

PM Modi is holding fire till he can tie up all the diplomatic loose ends, build India's military so it can handle a two-front conflict and most importantly wait for the timing of global conflicts to reach a point where few would care much if India permanently cripples (if not dismembers) Pakistan.

The time is approaching.  The final solution is near. 

Finding Fadnavis

What is it with Marathi politicians who seem always eager to be seduced by the sickular cabal - From PramodM to NitinG and now DevendraP - they all seem to fall over themselves to please the very forces who are hell bent on destroying them. 

Everyone concedes, on the development/administrative front, DF is a manna from heaven for a beleaguered state.  However, it is his subtle but perceptible shift into pseudosecularism that is a cause for concern. 

Clearly, like every young leader, he sees himself as a future PM material and his moves must been seen in that light.  But as a well wisher I must warn him that his strategy is flawed and it could hurt him and his party in the decade ahead. 

India's evolving demographic profile will give it the distinction of having the largest population of Muslims by 2050.  This demographic shift will be evident in electoral outcomes much earlier.  As early as 2029 - right about the time a 57 year old DF would be ready to throw his hat in the ring as successor to PM Modi. 

With Indian youth becoming less conservative in their outlook, a centrist would definitely have a much better chance of cobbling up a coalition to lead BJP and the country in 2029. 

That seems to be DF's calculation.  His mollycoddling of Dilip Kumar and 'secular' handling of Paki artists in Bollywood to now calling for special protection for journalists should be seen as part of a long term strategy to occupy the centrist space. 

DF as ABV circa 2029 seems to be his strategy. 

It is flawed for the following reasons:

1. Demographic Islamic invasion will create a massive backlash (as is happening across the globe) and cause a Hindu consolidation as witnessed most recently in UP

2. With liberal hypocrisy negating even genuine liberal values India like most other countries will continue its right ward swing 

3. As anti-Islamic backlash grows, the worst aspects of Islam/Muslims will assert themselves, further sharpening the divide

4. Islamists will react the only way they can - with violence.  Which will further squeeze the centrist space

Under these circumstances a skull-cap toting centrist will be ridiculed and pushed aside not only by core BJP supporters but also the very sickular jamaat that DF seems eager to court.

No political leader can win by angering his core supporters, not even PM Modi.  

By embracing known India/Hindu haters such as Dilip Kumar, Bollywood, MSM, DF is defining himself into a pseudosecular clone of ABV and LKA.

And we know how their careers ended. 

So here's some unsolicited, albeit friendly advice to the best CM Maharashtra has had in over 3 decades - Dont please your enemies if it angers your friends. 

There's nothing to be gained by extending a hand of friendship to those who consider you a 'Ghaati' from Nagpur unworthy of ruling over 'Bombay'. 

Instead, take a leaf out of your boss' book - use your boot to kick some anti-India, MSM, Bollywood ass.  It's a much simpler and politically rewarding strategy. 
 

 

Rise of the Mini Modis

While Congress and its evil empire were busy devising ways to stop PM Modi, the master strategist has in his own, efficient style unleashed forces which will reach their true potential in 10-15 years. 

Mini Modis.

Starting with the elevation of Amit Shah as BJP President, to the installation of YogiA in UP, PM Modi has put in place leaders who are his clones. 

He has created a league of extraordinary men (and women) who will serve his agenda long after he retires as leader of the world's largest democracy. 

Amit Shah, Devendra Phadnavis, Smriti Irani, Dharmendra Pradhan, Piyush Goyal and now Yogi A - all share certain traits with their Boss.

1. Unimpeachable integrity
2. Self made men and women
3. Young (all but AmitS are under 50)
4. Wedded to Hindutva
5. Highly competent
6. Result oriented
7. From humble backgrounds

In creating these leaders, PM Modi has gifted BJP a bench strength which will be tough to counter for decades to come.

Perhaps the most potent characteristic of this team is the cultural shift they represent - a shift which will transcend generations and serve India well into the second half of this century.

Unless one of them turns rogue this team has been picked for their ability to work selflessly for the cause with zero tolerance for corruption. 

In so many ways PM Modi has molded BJP and the broader right-of-center movement in his own image.  Mini Modis will make the  cultural shift toward the 'Politics of Performance' irreversible. 

As Mini Modis establish themselves, 'Politics of Patronage' will die a natural and painful death.  There's no way the Akhileshes and Pappus of India will challenge this league of extraordinary men and women. 

As performance and a clear allegiance to Hindutva become the sole qualifications to gain prominence within the BJP, congressitis will slowly vanish - first from the BJP and then from the country. 

With the eclipse of Pawar and Mulayam their progeny will slowly fade away.  

Even in my wildest dreams this Bhakt couldnt have imagined an India which would be galloping towards achieving that elusive goal espoused by Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj - Hindavi Swaraja - Hindu Self Rule. 

The countless hours, days and years, I (and fellow Bhakts) have spent supporting and (in the tiniest way) contributing to this cause have been worth it. 

Thank you Modiji. 

Why Congress May Never Recover

Political obituaries are a crap shoot.  And one that calls for the end of India’s GOP is fraught with risking one’s face getting plastered with a basket full of fresh eggs. 

Political pundits are convinced that Rahul Gandhi lies at the heart of most ills that plague India’s Grand old party (GOP).  No doubt there’s merit in this line of thinking.  But Rahul is more a symptom than a cause for Congress’ many ills.

Much as Businesses have a ‘Business Model’, Political parties have a ‘Political Model’.  Failure to adapt to changing market dynamics can deposit even the most powerful business or political entities on the chopping block of History.

‘Politics of Patronage’

Congress’s Political Model could best be described by drawing parallels with the structure of a Mafia organization.

A Don and his family rule the organization backed up by Capos, Captains and Soldiers.  There are only two means by which a soldier can dream of moving up the ranks is by a) Earning for the family and b) pledging absolute loyalty to the family.

For a political party (unlike the mafia) there’s a third path to rise to the top - albeit one with a delicate balancing act.  A political soldier can bring a caste/class/regional group to the fold which can bolster the family’s electoral fortunes.  But if said soldier gathers a significant popular space of his own he becomes a threat to the family and is cut down by means fair or foul.

Family is all powerful and infallible.  Family’s popularity wins elections and any loss is pinned on local leadership.  The high command is supported by a string of clever, Machiavellian tier 2 and tier 3 leaders who couldn’t win a Panchayat election if their life depended on it.

Though Congress is perhaps the best practitioner of this political model, almost every party in India barring the BJP and the left have come around to accepting and adopting it.   Akalis, Shiv Sena, DMK, SP, BSP….they are all run on similar lines.  Even that Johnny-come-lately AAP has quickly morphed into a version of this model with the necessary veneer and rhetoric of cleanliness.

It is the overwhelming presence of the RSS and BJP’s dependence on their cadre which has prevented the party from becoming the family fiefdom of a senior leader. 

‘Politics of Performance’

PM Narendra Modi is perhaps the only Indian leader who recognized very early in his tenure as CM of Gujarat that the nature of emerging India would be unrecognizable from those British-worshipping generations who voted successive Congress governments into power.  Prior to his brazen power grab circa 2013, even his contemporaries in the BJP were ambling along, satisfied with being a poor replica of the Congress Party.

In his 3 short years, PM Modi has set a new benchmark.  

No scandals, no handouts, no special treatment, no coterie, no lackeys, food inflation under control, 24x7 power supply, surgical strike on Pakistan, war on corruption……PM Modi has birthed the ‘Politics of Performance’. 

And it’s delivery in a record 30 months has allowed Indians to juxtapose it against Congress’ ‘Politics of Patronage’ model. 

By exposing Indians to the possibilities, PM Modi has demonstrated the efficacy of his model.  There’s no going back.  

Either Congress and her clones (Congress+) start delivering at or above the levels established by BJP governments or risk being pushed into political oblivion.

It remains a steep mountain to climber and with PM Modi and his carefully selected team at state and central levels delivering at even greater levels this climb is getting steeper.

What are the odds stacked up against Congress+ ?

1.       Deliver a corruption free government and party operations

2.       Deliver on bijli sadak pani (infrastructure)

3.       Deliver on women’s security

4.       Deliver on jobs, control inflation

When a 85% (by Rajiv Gandhi’s own admission) of funds earmarked for people’s welfare are siphoned off by Congress’ patronage network, delivering welfare threatens the very structure that sustains Congress+ in power.

Delivery welfare and sustaining Congress’ political model are mutually exclusive.

It is now too late for Congress to alter course.  The last time this could have happened was under the late PM Rajiv Gandhi.  The roots of Congress’ political run deep.  Instead of one or two RK Dhawans or ML Fotedars, Congress is now beset with 100s if not thousands or such pimps and fixers – up and down its power structures.

These are the same enablers who helped Robert Vadra become a billionaire faster than Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates.

The family is just the biggest pimp from the pack.  There’s really no distinction between a Sonia Gandhi and a RK Dhawan.  There’s just no differentiation.

Both Demonetization and the destruction of Congress’ presence in government are strategies with a common aim – force Sonia to reach into her war chest.  One she has earned and guarded with great fortitude, even at the cost of her reputation and that of her family.

The family is now evaluating its balance sheet.  Do they keep investing in a party which is clearly incapable of surmounting a challenge given such impossible odds or cut their losses, keep the loot and have their future generations enjoy it in the cool climes of Europe.

The odds are such that even Priyanka Vadra will find it impossible to battle the juggernaut that is PM Modi.  BJP has kept its anti-Priyanka powder (aka Robert V) dry and will not hesitate to unleash it through calculated leaks and court cases as and when she insinuates a desire to take the plunge.

The decline and likely demise of the Congress should be a lesson to all parties who are regional versions of the Gandhi parivar.  The business model has changed, the customer has changed, the marketing channels have changed.  Which only means one thing – You must come up with a new, improved product. 

The same old Secularism/Caste/Language/Emotion/Reservations/Handouts simply wont work.  For one, people have tried it and it has failed them.  Secondly even an illiterate villager knows that the pie must grow so as to feed 1.2 billion Indians. The old model has collapsed.  India is in a hurry, for capital goods, for sound institutions, for a better quality of life.

PM Modi recognized this very early in his tenure in Gujarat.  The ‘pundits’ ridiculed him and his use of social media, his slogans and his schemes.  But they worked.  And now that the efficacy of his model has been established people want even more of it.

“If Modi can electrify the remotest of villages in less than 3 years, why did India have to wait 70 years in darkness?”  Congress and its ilk have no answers for these questions. 

Leaders don’t create revolutions, revolutions find their leaders.  PM Modi is tailor made for an impatient, unforgiving India.  Not only do the Gandhis not have an answer for this revolution, it is very likely no other party (including a BJP sans Modi) does.

Politics abhors a vacuum and a political party will emerge to fill the massive hole left behind by the Congress.  And it must.  For a single party rule is dangerous and self-defeating, as 70 years of India’s GOP has shown us.

Breaking the Maha GaatBandhan (MGB)

That UP election results will expedite creation of a nationwide anti-NaMo coalition is a given.  PM Modi has engendered a sense of panic across India's political spectrum.  Desperate times call for desperate measures and BJP's rivals are about to initiate a political orgy the likes of which the world hasnt seen since the decadent days of Greek/Roman empires.

All kidding aside, as I have always maintained, a MahaGatBandhan (MGB) coalition has a low bar to cross i.e. defeating PM Modi does not require victory or even crossing the half way mark.  Keeping NDA around 240 seats and BJP around 210-220 will suffice.  A deficit would impose coalition partners on BJP and conceding their pound of flesh will destroy PM's agenda, force compromises and diminish his stature as a Game changer.

At the very least this strategy will slow down if not stall the NaMo juggernaut.  

But there are ways to counter this emerging evil confluence of political slugde. 

PM Modi has confronted a small version in 2013 i.e. BJP's D4.  The strategy he used to counter D4 was brilliant in its simplicity.  

He went directly to the people by circumventing coalition partners, BJP leaders, media, 'intellectuals', etc.

However, given the enormity of the challenge a MGB represents, a direct-to-the-people tactic can only serve as a subset (albeit a core component) of a larger multi-pronged, multi year strategy.

BJP must aim for a Direct-to-people plus strategy to beat the MGB.

What follows are a set of ideas that could help shape the aforementioned strategy:

1. There's no way to dilute the 'NaMo Vs. the Rest' nature of Battle for 2019.  2019 will be a referendum on our beloved PM.  His enemies understand that this is their last chance.  Another 2014 like performance will push them beyond a point of no return.  

BJP needs expand the scope of this battle beyond the PM and his performance.  A MGB poses a formidable challenge as Bihar has shown us.  One way to make this more effective is to start portraying it as a war of Clean Vs. Corrupt

By doing so BJP will squeeze every other contender out of the 'Clean politics' space.  Pretenders such as AAP will be caught between two stools - join the Anti-NaMo coalition and be branded a corrupt 'also ran' or stand alone and eat into anti-BJP votes.

2. Double Down on Demonitization
Positioning as a war between Clean and Corrupt wont be enough.  PM Modi must now go full throttle to destroy the corrupt.  These will include key pieces on Sonia's chess board.  

Watching an Ahmed Patel or a Chiddu in handcuffs will send a chill down the spine of prospective coalition builders/partners.  A Maya or Mamta or Sharad will think twice before endorsing a grand coalition. 

Sparing Sonia's immediate family should allow the BJP to keep that card available to be used at a later time.  It could possibly get a Chiddu to fold and deliver the queen on a plea deal.  It is not even necessary that cases are decided by 2019.  The fact that the govt has gone after them would reassure Indian voters and further buttress BJP's credentials as a corruption fighter.

3.  Seize Black Assets

Benami properties would hit the corrupt where it hits the most.  For example if flats sold to corrupt politicians in high profile locations such as Adarsh are seized by the govt and publicly auctioned off with proceeds going directly to people's welfare the resulting public euphoria could rival the guillotine.  T

The reason Demonitization has paid such rich political dividends was the spectacle of India's corrupt publicly losing their marbles.

High profile property seizures would hurt 'Politics of Patronage' by damaging their long term fixed assets.  Everyone from Congress to Shiv Sena to DMK would be up in arms and run to be part of the coalition.

It as this point that the 'Clean Vs. Corrupt' battle cry will acquire a real edge.

The sight of a poor 'Chaiwala' destroying Mother India's enemies would light a revolutionary fire across India.

3.  Muslim Women
Perhaps the single most important number to watch is the voting pattern of Muslim women.  Any uptick in a lean toward the BJP even if marginal must be celebrated and harnessed.

While triple talaq is a great issue, more substantive work needs to be done to capture this (Potentially) restive constituency.  The daily sight of ugly Mullahs dictating every aspect of their lives and watching their non-Muslim sisters enjoying freedoms they can only dream off is surely weighing on Muslim women.

If BJP can make a special constructive effort to win their support a variety of benefits will accrue as described here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/10/jai-shri-ram-triple-talaq-and-why-bjp.html

4. The Dalit Factor

Though BJP lost Bihar due to a united opposition one glaring factor was the absence of a credible face who could rival NitishK.  In a national election things will be different and even a united opposition may find it difficult to prevent voters from defecting to the BJP.

The single biggest factor in breaking this coalition would be the Dalit vote bank.  If Maya is decimated in UP elections, Dalit voters will be up for grabs.

A party led by a pro-poor, clean leader who is delivering on a wide range of promises would be a natural home for Dalits.  Not only in UP but across India.

5. BJP's traditional vote bank

Some accounts have suggested that BJP's traditional vote bank - Baniyas in particular - have abandoned them post demonitization. 

While Demo did hurt Indian businesses there are ways in which they have benefited tremendously. This must be celebrated by pointing out that assest prices have come down, harassment of honest businessmen has come down, frivolous cases filed against businesses have reduced, etc.

.....to be continued


 

Why PM Modi Cant be like Trump and Why he shouldnt be like Obama

26% of American voters are Evangelical Christians and 81% of them voted for President Trump.  Let that sink in.  Trump is a twice divorced, womanizing, liberal and former Democrat.  Yet this band of voters rallied behind him like they havent for even the most virulent Christian warriors. 

Hindus who are upset with PM Modi on his lack of aggression against anti-Hindu forces must reflect on the following:

You will get your Hindu PM, when you create a Hindu vote bank.  

The term "Hindu Vote bank" is an oxymoron.  Consider both Bihar and now UP.  In assembly elections in both these states India's most popular PM was portrayed as a 'Bahari' i.e. Outsider.  By voters who were up in arms against Raj Thackeray's treatment of their brethren as 'Outsiders' in Mumbai.  

Yet this is how they chose to paint India's PM.  Lets face it.  Hindus dont vote as Hindus.  

Here's a hierarchy of importance in the Hindu socio-economic universe (in order of declining importance)

Family 
Sub-caste
Caste
Region
Language
State
Hinduism 

A very slim sliver of Hindu voters would vote purely on basis of Hinduism.  Unlike Muslims and Christians who have repeatedly voted for the devil with a single aim in mind - protect their religious identity.

And there in lies the rub.  Hindus have never been a united Ummah.  We blame casteism for the Bihar debacle but refuse to exorcise the demon of caste identity. 

16 years after becoming CM of Gujarat, PM Modi is still looking for this ephemeral Hindu vote bank.  It does occassionally coalesce when the country has its back to the wall but for the most part elections are won or lost based on aforementioned hierarchy of social preferences.

Consider aggressive 'Hindu' programs such as Ghar Wapsi which were started with much fanfare were dead-on-arrival thanks to a lack of strong back end support infrastructure.  Neo reconverts found it impossible to assimilate into a hierarchical Hindu social structure.

Demonitization is strategy designed to break this deadlock and create a vote bank of Hindus but not necessarily a Hindu vote bank. -  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/11/demonitization-aftermath-class-clean.html

Trump on the other hand has a large dedicated, politically active Christian constituency.  One which will vote for him as long as he delivers on core promises - Guns, Gays, God. 

Trump is backed up by the world's largest economy and military.  To suggest that PM Modi can throw his weight around and ban Muslims (for instance) is ridiculous.  

PM Modi cannot and should not act like President Trump (and he hasnt).  But most importantly he should be careful not to act like Obama. 

The big problem for PM Modi is that he cannot tom-tom his big successes on the Hindu agenda.  Perhaps his greatest success has been the drastic slow down he has administered in the machinations of proselyitization agenda of foreign NGOs. 

It has been a brilliant strategy, implemented with a military precision and a Seal team like stealth.  But its success must remain under wraps so as to avoid eliciting the wrath of Western countries who (not surprisingly) kow-tow to Jihadis but target Hindu India to prove their dedication to freedom-of-religion.


To put it in other words - PM Modi is repairing a house engulfed by flames while keeping the residents safe so that they keep voting for him.


 Having said all that surely PM Modi could do more to address the wanton killing of BJP/Sangh foot soldiers.  And as BJP supporters we're completely justified in venting our frustration.  But we must understand that PM Modi is trying to use his powers to affect much larger changes. He must pick his battles carefully.

Getting tied up in local issues could severely undermine his agenda. 

An agenda that is on track to deliver something very very big in first quarter of 2018. 

But BJP must stop the Commie-Jihadi complex from shedding blood of BJP's foot soldiers.

There's one way for the BJP to do this without jeopardizing its brand.  Large companies do it all the time so as to protect their primary brand.  They launch a low end brand to compete with upstarts who are nipping at their feet with cheaper options.  

BJP must find a way to launch an outfit which can go toe-to-toe with the Commie-Jihadi alliance that is hell bent on wiping them out in key states of Kerala, WB and UP.

Engineering a public split between mother BJP and a more hardline faction may help them create just such a more aggressive brand.

Actions of this brand could then come with 'plausible deniability'.  

However, such a strategy comes with a huge risk - similar outfits such as - Hindu Mahasabha, VHP, Shiv Sena - grew political ambitions - either direct or indirect - of their own.  PM Modi has worked assiduously since his days in Gujarat to counter them and would be wary of creating an alternate power center.

Another strategy could include use of state apparatus to target big names in the Communist party and expose their double lives and corruption. 

Done correctly such a strategy could keep Commie cadre involved in internal battles and turn their energies from targeting BJP cadre.

2019 is becoming even more important than 2014.  Support your PM.  He's our only hope and his nationalist credentials should not be doubted.

Waiting for the Muslim Martin Luther - Shazia Ilmi?

Martin Luther the German monk turned professor isnt the best role model to prescribe for a much needed reformation within Islam.  He was rabidly anti-semitic and no doubt contributed to the persecution of Jews.

But he did play a vital role in jolting Christianity into confronting its degeneration under the catholic church where entrance to heaven was sold by the clergy - all sins forgiven. 

Islam is in need of just such a jolt.  External forces can only go so far in defeating Islam's fanatic edge.  An edge that strangely occupies a large swath of its Ummah. 

Islam is a religion for men, by men, of men.  Men enjoy lopsided, disproportionate privileges under Islam - 4 wives, permission to divorce on a whim with no need to pay alimony or child support, take non-muslim women as sex slaves, rape children under the guise of a legalized marriage, etc.

Most of these privileges come at the cost of women.  If a husband, as happened with Mohd. Shami, decides to treat his wife as an equal, the Ummah quickly gangs up on him to make him an example and dissuade other more moderate elements in the community from following his example.

This is not an isolated case.  A celebrity like Shami, living in a non-Muslim country can stand up to the pressure. But what about the poor and middle class Muslims who dare not challenge the orthodoxy in their community.

Another factor in his favor is that his wife belongs to a wealthy muslim family from Bengal and can hope to draw support from those quarters. 

Her less privileged sisters enjoy no such latitude.  A Muslim women living in a Muslim ghetto or even a middle class Muslim neighborhood dare not violate norms set by her community.  


But a ray of hope has emerged from these centuries old record of oppression.  The world is changing at a pace that none can fathom.  

The information age has exposed every last doctrine as the world continues to crowd source the dissection of divine claims and holier-than-thou grand standing.   

Given its isolation, Islam has remained insulated from these global shifts.  But it hasnt remained immune.  

Exhibit A:  Google searches for the most degenerate sexual practices emanate from Pakistan/Afghanistan 

It would be a fair assumption that we would witness a similar behavior out of Saudi Arabia if restrictions to web access were relaxed in that kingdom. 

Bottomline:  Information is seeping through.  Muslim women are witnessing how their counterparts in more liberal societies can live freely and enjoy their most fundamental, god given rights.


Most tightly knit doctrines have this weakness:  Tug at one thread and the entire fabric starts falling apart.  The decline of Christianity can be explained by just such a dynamic.  

In contrast, despite its many short comings, Hinduism's laissez-faire model helped it survive multiple assaults both internal and external.  

For Islam to follow the same trajectory toward reform, a vocal segment from within its ranks would have to find the space to rise up and challenge Mullah's Islam.  

Indian Muslim women may represent that vocal segment.  The space and freedom available to them within a predominantly Hindu society helps shield them from sinister designs of Mullahs in their community. 

83% of Indian Muslim women supporting a ban on triple talaq represent the canary in Mullah's coal mine.  

Never before have so many Muslim women raised their voice and stood up to orthodox forces within their community.

This silent majority is a force waiting to be harvested.  But it must be done judiciously and with great sagacity.  Such a confluence of favorable factors may not emerge for a generation if frittered away.

First and foremost this emerging revolution needs a sootradhar - a leader who can shepherd the reformation by navigating through the deep and wide shark infested waters.

Just as NaMo emerged as the right leader at the right time who could piece together a perfect coalition, Muslim reformation movement (MRM) will need a female Indian Muslim woman possessing the right qualities.

Here's a preliminary list of those qualities:  

1. Educated
2. A practicing Muslim 
3. Courageous
4. A staunch nationalist
5. A brilliant communicator
6. Relatively young - this will be a long drawn out battle
7. Adequately knowledgeable on Islamic scriptures and history
8. A supportive and equally committed family

One individual who fits this bill is Shazia Ilmi.  A further analysis on her credentials is needed but early vetting makes her a front runner.  

The biggest question is this - Is she willing to put everything on the line to win this war for the soul of Islam?