Black Money and Its Political Implications

Supporters of PM Modi (and I’m perhaps the biggest one) are making a fatal error in assuming that the current brouhaha vis-à-vis black money is a storm in a tea cup and its political impact on the Modi Govt. will be minimal.

Allow me to explain why this assumption is flawed and how this issue threatens the very core of everything PM Modi has constructed over his 40 plus years in public life.

Despite an absolute majority, despite successive victories at the state level, Black money can and will derail NDA 2 and render it ineffective in presenting a strong case in 2019.

1. PM Modi’s appeal rests on three pillars
   
   
   
   
   
   
   1. Personal Integrity
      
      
   
   
   
   2. His performance as CM of Gujarat
      
      
   
   
   
   3. His humble antecedents
      
      
   
   
   
   

Of these three, Personal integrity is without doubt, his strongest virtue.  In fact, it his armor.  Sans personal integrity all else gets diminished.  To put it another way, even if he performs miracles on the economic front, even if he delivers a Swachh, Surakshit Bharat, any blemish to his reputation will allow Congress and its media pimps to get a foot in the door.  A Priyanka Gandhi led Congress or a Kejriwal led UPA could then step in and ensure a hung parliament in 2019

1. One way to counter BJP was always to equate it to Congress on every issue.  From communalism to economy to corruption, once media and Congress were successful in creating this impression of ‘Congress-BJP-same-same’ the voter was confused and perplexed.  Lack of action of Black Money can have the same effect
   
   
   
   
   
   
   1. Congress doesn’t need to prove that it is clean.  Even the Gandhis know that is no longer possible.  All they have to do is paint BJP with the same brush.  Engender doubts (in public perception) of both parties being corrupt.  One more than the other.
      
      
   
   
   
   



2. With an absolute majority and the complete backing of the party and the larger Sangh parivar, PM Modi may seem politically invincible.  But if media is able to perpetuate the impression of ‘Congress-BJP-same-same’ in that UPA had a clean PM who could do little against the corrupt and NDA has the same situation, every decision taken by the NDA govt will be seen in the light of crony corruption where NDA is taking decisions not to create jobs or improve the economy but to ALSO benefit its corrupt benefactors.  The Ambanis, Adanis, Birlas, etc.
   
   



3. Once this impression gains ground, non-political NGOs, leftists, etc can be deployed to derail and/or delay key infrastructure and policy initiatives.  If enough people are angered by lack of clarity on the Black Money issue, we could witness agitations not seen since Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare held center stage at Ram Lila grounds.
   
   



4. Another suggestion made by fellow Internet Hindus is that the NDA govt will time its attack on Gandhis and Congress closer to key elections.  For instance, Vadra could be targeted once Priyanka decides to take the plunge.  Using the Vadra card too early will ensure dilution of its efficacy as a political tool.  Moreover complete annihilation of the Gandhis would create a vacuum allowing likes of Kejriwal to step in.  Better to keep Pappus on the back foot but at the crease instead of getting them out and allowing a better batsman to take the crease and ensure a draw or a comeback.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   1. But this argument has several flaws.  Yes logically it makes complete sense.  But delaying action on Vadra and timing it closer to Priyanka’s entry will allow her to play the victim – the long suffering Indian wife standing by her corrupt husband – now being targeted by an equally suspect NDA regime.
      
      
   
   
   
   2. Going after the corrupt in a timely manner is key to winning in 2019.  The cases can be expedited and delayed in accordance with a political calendar, but any delay would cause immense harm to BJP’s image as a cleaner of corrupt politics.  Initiate cases, even if conviction is many years away.
      
      
   
   
   
   



5. There may be genuine road blocks to revealing names of foreign account holders.  For instance an Ambani may be included in the list.  So how should the Modi Sarkar counter this road block. 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   1. Perhaps NDA should learn from the genius that was Dhirubhai Ambani.  In 1987 when VP Singh led the first anti-corruption crusade, he had Dhirubhai squarely in his sights.  There was no escape.  Or so political pundits of the day predicted.
      
      
   
   
   
   2. But Dhirubhai deftly side stepped that battle and turned it into a VP Vs. Rajiv war.  Surely Reliance suffered significant collateral damage with Rajiv losing the election and VP taking over as PM.  But Dhirubhai was able to keep his weapons intact and when the time came he stationed himself at the Ashoka Hotel with bags of cash to take down the VP Singh Govt.
      
      
   
   
   
   3. PM Modi will have to do something similar.  Even if it means sacrificing some key figures from his ecosystem.  Be they leaders of Industry or members his own cabinet. 
   4. Bottomline:  Release all names to the SC court and let this be a battle between the People of India and the SC of India.
   
   
   
   
   
   

What is of primary importance, what is non-negotiable in the ongoing political war is PM Modi’s personal Integrity.  Nothing and I mean nothing is more valuable.